Buckle Up! Ups & Downs on the way!

Forecast Discussion:

TGIF Everybody! What a week it has been! Light wintry mix of precipitation across the area with mainly light mist/drizzle falling across the Austin Metro Area as of 5 p.m. CST Friday evening. Thankfully surface temperatures are running just above freezing across a good chunk of the Austin area with the exception of the northern, western, and northwestern suburbs. Warmer air beginning to advect north around 4-5,000 feet above the surface is riding up and over the dense, cold Arctic Air Mass here at the surface. If that warmer air had not pushed in so quickly above us here in Austin, we could have seen some light flurries/snow showers this afternoon, however, the warming temperatures aloft helped to transition all of the precipitation falling into light mist/drizzle, sleet, and light freezing mist/drizzle. The Hill Country needs to keep an eye on this precipitation through the evening and into the overnight hours as travel may become hazardous on mainly elevated roadways north and west of Austin because air temperatures in those locations are still at/below freezing. With that in mind, the National Weather Service has issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for the counties shaded in purple on the map below.

OFFICIAL STATEMENT FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO FORECAST OFFICE:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
332 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA...

.LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE IS DEVELOPING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND
IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TO INCLUDE THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
COMSTOCK TO MEDINA TO HELOTES TO AUSTIN LINE.

While this technically includes the Austin Metro Area, the biggest impacts from this event should be felt to our north and west. Warmer air continues to advect north through the day on Saturday with continued chances for light rain across the area and plenty of cloud cover. Highs on Saturday should manage to climb into the 40s across a good portion of south central Texas, it’s not out of the question for far southern and southeastern portions of the area to make it into the lower 50s Saturday afternoon.

Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday:

Continual warm air advection pushes highs into the 60s I think for a majority of south central Texas during the day on Sunday…the 12Z run of the GFS Model (the weather service’s model of choice) pushes us to 72°F on Sunday, not sure if we will get quite that warm, but you get the idea…milder temps to be expected on Sunday. Light rain chances continue on Sunday at 40% under what should be a mostly cloudy/partly sunny day otherwise. For all of you folks heading out to the Kite Festival, it doesn't look to be the best day for flying kites as winds will be variable and light along with the chance for rain. We stay in this predominantly cloudy, mild, and showery weather pattern into Monday. A cold front looks to sag south into the area early Monday looking to keep highs down into the mid/upper 50s for much of the area. Rain chances continue on Monday at 40%. That front retreats quickly back to the north Monday night into Tuesday morning and allows for much warmer, moist air to move into the region ahead of our next upper level storm system and its associated cold fronts (yes, cold fronts) move into the area. Highs soar into the mid/upper 70s I think area wide on Tuesday with 80s & 90s possible across much of south Texas. Given the more unstable environment on Tuesday, thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday/Tuesday night…I’m leaving the chance for storms at 30% for now as models are not all that impressed with our chances for rain/storms. As of now the threat for severe weather (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes appears to be very low).

GFS FORECAST MAX SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY

ARCTIC BLAST BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKELY NEXT WEEK

Now…this is where things really start to get interesting according to the latest runs of both the GFS and ECMWF Forecast Models…both models show a POWERFUL Arctic Front plunging south through the area Wednesday morning with another round of wintry precipitation for some across south central Texas. As models look right now, this promises to be a potent cold blast with Arctic Air originating over portions of northeastern Siberia!! Widespread hard freeze possible across much of the area next Wednesday night with temperatures dropping into the 20s I think for much of the area.

SIBERIAN EXPRESS (name given to these fast-moving, potent Arctic Fronts in which air associated with it originated in Siberia). Image below: looking straight down at the North Pole with 850mb (around 4,600' above sea level) forecast temperatures superimposed on top)...very cool image. Circled area represents the place of origin of next week's potential Arctic Blast.

Siberian Air Mass highlighted with labeled countries (valid as of today):

Forecast Loop of image above (watch the circled mass of Air plunge into the lower 48)

Valid now through the end of next week

FORECAST COLD FRONT POSITION NOON WEDNESDAY...CHECK OUT THE DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE ON EACH SIDE OF THE FRONT (GFS FORECAST MODEL)

 ***PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT THIS FORECAST IS NOT SET IN STONE AND IS SUBJECT/LIKELY TO CHANGE A BIT OVER THE COMING DAYS***

• Model Imagery/Graphics above are courtesy of WeatherBell Models, College of DuPage Weather Department, and the National Weather Service.
• Cold Blast graphic courtesy of 5 News Online

Tracking Arctic Air

Forecast Discussion: 

Good Friday evening everybody and TGIF! Lots to talk about in the weather department. The spring-like weather we have been experiencing the past couple of days is about to come to a screeching halt. Gusty southerly winds today are thanks to a strong area of surface low pressure currently located around Wichita Falls, TX (northwest Texas/southwest Oklahoma)...that surface low will continue to shift east and open up the door for a strong cold front to push into south central Texas late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. While I'm not expecting a dramatic drop in temperatures behind the front Saturday evening, it will open the door for Arctic Air to move into the area late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours on gusty northerly winds. At the same time the cold Arctic Air is moving in here at the surface, warm, moist air will be forced up and over the cold air at the surface, that set-up is what meteorologists refer to as overrunning. Combine that set-up with upper level disturbances (areas of fast winds aloft) and that is likely going to mean trouble for a good chunk of central and north Texas beginning as early as Sunday afternoon persisting through Tuesday morning. Too early to say if wintry precipitation is going to become an issue for the Austin Metro Area on Monday/Monday night, however, it is beginning to look like the western and northwestern Hill Country may have to contend with some freezing rain/sleet as early as Monday morning. This forecast is highly dependent on temperature and a difference of one or two degrees can make a world of difference. 

Day by Day Timeline:

Saturday: Cloudy, drizzly start to the day in the upper 50s and lower 60s will give way to a partly sunny & spring-like afternoon with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s across the area ahead of a late afternoon/early evening frontal passage; front will move through the northwestern Hill Country earlier keeping highs down into the 60s...a light shower or two possible along the front as it moves through the area

Hi: 74ºF

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, gradually turning colder behind evening cold front

Lo: 49ºF

Sunday: Cloudy, windy, turning much colder as Arctic Air begins to filter into the area by early to late evening; drizzle/light rain possible during the afternoon/evening

Hi: 56ºF (falling into the 40s by evening)

Sunday Night: Cloudy, windy & COLD with lows dropping into the 30s area wide as Arctic Air moves in; drizzle/light rain possible

Lo: 34ºF (wind chills in the upper 20s and lower 30s)

Monday: Cloudy & COLD with drizzle/light rain likely...freezing rain/sleet mix possible north and west of Austin, possibly extending south into Austin Metro Area during the afternoon and evening hours... surface temperatures must be below freezing for freezing rain to become an issue

Hi: 35ºF 

Forecast Precipitation Type/Rate and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) for the south central U.S. for 6 P.M. CST Monday (GFS 00Z FEB 21 MODEL RUN)
GREEN=RAIN...PINK=SLEET...BLUE=SNOW

Monday Night: COLD with areas of light rain/light freezing rain and sleet
***elevated roadways across the Hill Country and northern/western Austin Metro Area need to be monitored closely for possible ice accumulation***

Lo: 31ºF

Tuesday: AM light wintry mix transitions to just a cloudy and cold afternoon 

Hi: 40ºF

And get this, a second, possibly stronger Arctic Front is forecast to blow through the area Thursday afternoon/evening possibly giving us another shot at wintry precipitation across the area on Friday/Saturday. 

***PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS JUST A FORECAST AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE***

Winter's Coming Back!

Forecast Discussion: Lots to talk about!

After a brief cool down yesterday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across south central Texas, surface high pressure has shifted to the east of our area and has allowed southerly winds to return to the area. Those south winds have pushed highs today into the mid to upper 60s today. A few spots like Camp Mabry actually made it in the lower 70s. Official high at Mabry coming in at 70°F for this 13th day of February 2015. All of south central Texas expected to warm into the 70s this weekend ahead of an Arctic Cold Front that will sweep through the area early Monday morning; a few spots may get close to 80°F on Saturday (Valentine's Day). Significantly colder conditions can be expected behind the front Monday and Tuesday of next week with highs dropping down into the 40's and lows dipping into the 30's. On top of the cold and windy conditions here at the surface, warmer, more moist air will be forced to ride up and over the heavier, colder at the surface. That pattern is very typical for us here in south central Texas during the winter months and is known as overrunning. Scattered to widely scattered showers look to develop ahead of and behind the cold front on Monday. An upper level low currently located over Baja California will move over the area Monday into Tuesday on top of the cold, Arctic Air at the surface. That set-up is likely to give us some light to moderate rain around south central Texas as it approaches/passes the area. Wintry precipitation looks to become an issue for north Texas, including the DFW Metroplex as soon as Sunday Night into early Monday morning. Please pay close attention to the forecast if you have travel plans there. I'm not expecting any travel impacts here in south central Texas, however, portions of the northern Hill Country and extreme northern portions of south central Texas may see a few snow flurries Monday night into Tuesday morning. Little to no accumulation expected in those areas. Old Man Winter is definitely not over yet!

Current Position of the Upper Level Low and it's Forecast Track:
Mid/upper level water vapor with 500 mb heights superimposed on top
You can view an animated version of the image below for yourself by clicking HERE

Day-by-Day Forecast: 
(Hi/Lo Forecast Temperatures Below Representative of Downtown Austin)

Tonight: Mostly clear & cool with lows in the 40s area wide; patchy fog possible
Lo: 49°F
Wind: S/SW around 5 mph

Saturday: Mostly sunny & unseasonably warm with highs in the 70s (low 80's possible)
Hi: 78°F
Wind: W/SW 5-8 mph

Saturday Night: Increasing clouds & mild in the 50s
Lo: 55°F
Wind: SSW 5-8 mph

Sunday: Mostly cloudy & mild with highs in the low to mid 70s; 20% chance of a shower
Hi: 74°F
Wind: SSE 5-15 mph

Sunday Night: Arctic Cold Front pushing into the northwestern Hill Country around midnight, around 3 a.m. for Austin. Front will be through all of south central Texas around sunrise Monday. Breezy north winds and rapidly falling temperatures expected behind the front. There is a 40% chance for showers along and behind the frontal boundary. Temperatures hover in the lower 60s area wide ahead of the front.
Lo: 45°F
Wind: SSE 5-15 mph turning to the N 15-20 mph (gusting 25+mph) behind the front

COLD FRONT TIMELINE (NAM 12 FORECAST MODEL)
Keep in mind this is just ONE Forecast Model's Opinion

MIDNIGHT:

3 AM:

6 AM:

Monday: Cloudy, WINDY, and COLD with temperatures in the 40's area wide (low 40s northwestern zones, mid 40's central zones, upper 40's southeastern zones); 60% chance of light rain developing late afternoon into the evening
Hi: 45°F (wind chills in the 30s)
Wind: N 10-20 mph gusting 25-30 mph at times

Monday Night: COLD & breezy with rain likely; lows in the 30s area wide with wind chills in the 20's (extreme northern and northwestern zones may receive a light freeze) A wintry mix (snow/sleet) possible across extreme northwestern Hill Country, however, NO to little accumulation is expected...snow/wintry mix will be more of an issue for north/northwest Texas where accumulation looks to be more likely (including DFW Metroplex, Waco, Abilene, Lubbock, etc...)
Lo: 37°F (wind chill in the 20s)
Wind: N 10-15 mph

Forecast Precipitation Rate/Type according to the GFS Model for 6 a.m. Tuesday
BLUE = SNOW...PINK = WINTRY MIX...GREEN = COLD RAIN

Tuesday: COLD, showery morning gives way to a chilly, cloudy afternoon with highs in the 40's area wide (rain chances will decrease from west to east during the day)...don't be surprised to see some light snow flurries mixing in with some of the rain across northern and northwestern portions of south central Texas (Mason, Llano, northern Burnet, northern Williamson, northern Milam Counties)...travel impacts possible north of south central Texas, head's up if you're heading to Dallas
Hi: 44°F (Wind chills in the 30s)
Wind: N 10-15 mph

Tuesday Night: Clearing & cold with lows in the 30s (freeze likely in low-lying/out-lying areas)
Lo: 34°F (29-32°F low-lying spots)
Wind: Calm

Wednesday: Sunny & much WARMER after a cold start; highs in the mid to upper 50s
Hi: 59°F
Wind: S 5-15 mph

***Between Sunday and Tuesday afternoon 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain may fall across the area...some spots may receive as much as 0.75 inches***

***PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS ONLY A FORECAST AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANYTIME...FOR A MORE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE LOOK AT THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS, MAKE SURE TO VISIT MY FACEBOOK WEATHER PAGE, MICHAEL'S WEATHER CENTER. YOU DO NOT NEED TO HAVE A FACEBOOK ACCOUNT TO VIEW IT***

LINK TO MY FACEBOOK PAGE: 
https://www.facebook.com/michaelswxcenter

SPRING-LIKE WARMTH

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2015 OFFICIAL HIGHS:

CAMP MABRY: 83°F (19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)

A.B.I.A.: 81°F (17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)

NORMAL HIGH: 64°F

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER 48 IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SINKING AIR ALOFT, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR HERE AT THE SURFACE IS ALLOWING FOR THE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THOSE RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER, SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

4 P.M. C.S.T. TEMPERATURE MAP (COURTESY OF WEATHERBELL MODELS) 

I drew on the approximate location of the Polar Jet Stream (Pink Arrows)...The trough of low pressure over the eastern United States and the ridge of high pressure over much of the central/western United States is clearly visible just based on surface temperatures...pretty amazing image! You can see this image anytime for yourselves by clicking HERE.

A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL HELP TO SLIDE A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER & WINDIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 55-60°F RANGE (SOME 20-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS). CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30s AREA WIDE...OUT-LYING, LOW-LYING AREAS MAY RECEIVE A LIGHT FREEZE ESPECIALLY IF FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS COLDER...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS. WE ARE GOING TO BE ON THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF A MASSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

***OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE MASSIVE ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK THAT WILL TAKE HOLD OF MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND; JUST TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF HOW COLD IT IS GOING TO GET THIS IS A LOOK AT SATURDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST LOWS (ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE, NOT WIND CHILL) FOR SELECT CITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER 48:

MINNEAPOLIS: -3°F

CHICAGO: 2°F

PITTSBURGH: 6°F

PHILADELPHIA: 10°F

NEW YORK CITY: 8°F

BOSTON: 6°F

DETROIT: -2°F

COLUMBUS: 1°F

LOUISVILLE: 7°F

NASHVILLE: 13°F

ATLANTA: 22°F

MOBILE (RIGHT ON THE GULF COAST): 29°F

ORLANDO: 38°F

MIAMI: 51°F (THAT'S REALLY COLD FOR THEM)

***FORECAST LOWS COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE***

DAY BY DAY FORECAST:

TONIGHT:

CLEAR & COOL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40s

WIND: LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SSE AT 5 MPH

TUESDAY: SUNNY & SPRING-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70s & LOWER 80s

WIND: SSE AT 5-10 MPH

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR EARLY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG ROLLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT (GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT/I-35 CORRIDOR) LOWS IN THE 50s

WIND: SSE 1-4 MPH

WEDNESDAY: LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 GIVES WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY & SPRING-LIKE AFTERNOON IN THE 70s (NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE)

WIND: SSE 5-10 MPH

    

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM TO 1 AM…A BRIEF SPRINKLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY…TURNING BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40s AREA WIDE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY

WIND: LIGHT/VARIABLE SWITCHING TO NNW 10-20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT; GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, COOLER AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50s (a few spots may manage to hit 60°F)

WIND: N 10-20 MPH (GUSTS 25-30 MPH ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS)

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 30s (OUT-LYING/LOW-LYING AREAS NEED TO WATCH OUT/PREPARE FOR A FREEZE)

FRIDAY: COLD/CLEAR START GIVES WAY TO A SUNNY/COOL AFTERNOON IN THE 60s