SPRING-LIKE WARMTH

MONDAY, FEBRUARY 9, 2015 OFFICIAL HIGHS:

CAMP MABRY: 83°F (19 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)

A.B.I.A.: 81°F (17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL)

NORMAL HIGH: 64°F

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER 48 IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. SINKING AIR ALOFT, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND DRY AIR HERE AT THE SURFACE IS ALLOWING FOR THE SPRING-LIKE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. SURFACE HIGH LOCATED OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL PUSH TO OUR EAST OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THOSE RETURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, HOWEVER, SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CLEAR SKIES AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A ROUND OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF DRIZZLE/MIST EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE EARLY WEDNESDAY.

4 P.M. C.S.T. TEMPERATURE MAP (COURTESY OF WEATHERBELL MODELS) 

I drew on the approximate location of the Polar Jet Stream (Pink Arrows)...The trough of low pressure over the eastern United States and the ridge of high pressure over much of the central/western United States is clearly visible just based on surface temperatures...pretty amazing image! You can see this image anytime for yourselves by clicking HERE.

A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND A DEEPENING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL HELP TO SLIDE A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER & WINDIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 55-60°F RANGE (SOME 20-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY'S HIGHS). CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL/DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30s AREA WIDE...OUT-LYING, LOW-LYING AREAS MAY RECEIVE A LIGHT FREEZE ESPECIALLY IF FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS COLDER...WE SHOULD MANAGE TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING IN URBAN AREAS. WE ARE GOING TO BE ON THE FAR WESTERN FRINGES OF A MASSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.

***OUR BRIEF COOL DOWN WILL PALE IN COMPARISON TO THE MASSIVE ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK THAT WILL TAKE HOLD OF MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND; JUST TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF HOW COLD IT IS GOING TO GET THIS IS A LOOK AT SATURDAY NIGHT'S FORECAST LOWS (ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURE, NOT WIND CHILL) FOR SELECT CITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOWER 48:

MINNEAPOLIS: -3°F

CHICAGO: 2°F

PITTSBURGH: 6°F

PHILADELPHIA: 10°F

NEW YORK CITY: 8°F

BOSTON: 6°F

DETROIT: -2°F

COLUMBUS: 1°F

LOUISVILLE: 7°F

NASHVILLE: 13°F

ATLANTA: 22°F

MOBILE (RIGHT ON THE GULF COAST): 29°F

ORLANDO: 38°F

MIAMI: 51°F (THAT'S REALLY COLD FOR THEM)

***FORECAST LOWS COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE***

DAY BY DAY FORECAST:

TONIGHT:

CLEAR & COOL WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40s

WIND: LIGHT/VARIABLE TO SSE AT 5 MPH

TUESDAY: SUNNY & SPRING-LIKE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70s & LOWER 80s

WIND: SSE AT 5-10 MPH

TUESDAY NIGHT: CLEAR EARLY WITH LOW CLOUDS/FOG ROLLING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT (GENERALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT/I-35 CORRIDOR) LOWS IN THE 50s

WIND: SSE 1-4 MPH

WEDNESDAY: LOW CLOUDS, FOG AND DRIZZLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 GIVES WAY TO A MOSTLY SUNNY & SPRING-LIKE AFTERNOON IN THE 70s (NOT QUITE AS WARM AS TODAY/TUESDAY THANKS TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE)

WIND: SSE 5-10 MPH

    

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 9 PM TO 1 AM…A BRIEF SPRINKLE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THE FRONT, HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS NOT LIKELY…TURNING BREEZY AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40s AREA WIDE BY SUNRISE THURSDAY

WIND: LIGHT/VARIABLE SWITCHING TO NNW 10-20 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT; GUSTS TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE

THURSDAY: MOSTLY SUNNY, COOLER AND BREEZY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50s (a few spots may manage to hit 60°F)

WIND: N 10-20 MPH (GUSTS 25-30 MPH ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS)

THURSDAY NIGHT: CLEAR AND COLD WITH LOWS IN THE 30s (OUT-LYING/LOW-LYING AREAS NEED TO WATCH OUT/PREPARE FOR A FREEZE)

FRIDAY: COLD/CLEAR START GIVES WAY TO A SUNNY/COOL AFTERNOON IN THE 60s