After a brief cool down yesterday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s across south central Texas, surface high pressure has shifted to the east of our area and has allowed southerly winds to return to the area. Those south winds have pushed highs today into the mid to upper 60s today. A few spots like Camp Mabry actually made it in the lower 70s. Official high at Mabry coming in at 70°F for this 13th day of February 2015. All of south central Texas expected to warm into the 70s this weekend ahead of an Arctic Cold Front that will sweep through the area early Monday morning; a few spots may get close to 80°F on Saturday (Valentine's Day). Significantly colder conditions can be expected behind the front Monday and Tuesday of next week with highs dropping down into the 40's and lows dipping into the 30's. On top of the cold and windy conditions here at the surface, warmer, more moist air will be forced to ride up and over the heavier, colder at the surface. That pattern is very typical for us here in south central Texas during the winter months and is known as overrunning. Scattered to widely scattered showers look to develop ahead of and behind the cold front on Monday. An upper level low currently located over Baja California will move over the area Monday into Tuesday on top of the cold, Arctic Air at the surface. That set-up is likely to give us some light to moderate rain around south central Texas as it approaches/passes the area. Wintry precipitation looks to become an issue for north Texas, including the DFW Metroplex as soon as Sunday Night into early Monday morning. Please pay close attention to the forecast if you have travel plans there. I'm not expecting any travel impacts here in south central Texas, however, portions of the northern Hill Country and extreme northern portions of south central Texas may see a few snow flurries Monday night into Tuesday morning. Little to no accumulation expected in those areas. Old Man Winter is definitely not over yet!
Current Position of the Upper Level Low and it's Forecast Track:
Mid/upper level water vapor with 500 mb heights superimposed on top
You can view an animated version of the image below for yourself by clicking HERE
Day-by-Day Forecast:
(Hi/Lo Forecast Temperatures Below Representative of Downtown Austin)
Tonight: Mostly clear & cool with lows in the 40s area wide; patchy fog possible
Lo: 49°F
Wind: S/SW around 5 mph
Saturday: Mostly sunny & unseasonably warm with highs in the 70s (low 80's possible)
Hi: 78°F
Wind: W/SW 5-8 mph
Saturday Night: Increasing clouds & mild in the 50s
Lo: 55°F
Wind: SSW 5-8 mph
Sunday: Mostly cloudy & mild with highs in the low to mid 70s; 20% chance of a shower
Hi: 74°F
Wind: SSE 5-15 mph
Sunday Night: Arctic Cold Front pushing into the northwestern Hill Country around midnight, around 3 a.m. for Austin. Front will be through all of south central Texas around sunrise Monday. Breezy north winds and rapidly falling temperatures expected behind the front. There is a 40% chance for showers along and behind the frontal boundary. Temperatures hover in the lower 60s area wide ahead of the front.
Lo: 45°F
Wind: SSE 5-15 mph turning to the N 15-20 mph (gusting 25+mph) behind the front
COLD FRONT TIMELINE (NAM 12 FORECAST MODEL)
Keep in mind this is just ONE Forecast Model's Opinion
MIDNIGHT:
3 AM:
6 AM:
Monday: Cloudy, WINDY, and COLD with temperatures in the 40's area wide (low 40s northwestern zones, mid 40's central zones, upper 40's southeastern zones); 60% chance of light rain developing late afternoon into the evening
Hi: 45°F (wind chills in the 30s)
Wind: N 10-20 mph gusting 25-30 mph at times
Monday Night: COLD & breezy with rain likely; lows in the 30s area wide with wind chills in the 20's (extreme northern and northwestern zones may receive a light freeze) A wintry mix (snow/sleet) possible across extreme northwestern Hill Country, however, NO to little accumulation is expected...snow/wintry mix will be more of an issue for north/northwest Texas where accumulation looks to be more likely (including DFW Metroplex, Waco, Abilene, Lubbock, etc...)
Lo: 37°F (wind chill in the 20s)
Wind: N 10-15 mph
Forecast Precipitation Rate/Type according to the GFS Model for 6 a.m. Tuesday
BLUE = SNOW...PINK = WINTRY MIX...GREEN = COLD RAIN
Tuesday: COLD, showery morning gives way to a chilly, cloudy afternoon with highs in the 40's area wide (rain chances will decrease from west to east during the day)...don't be surprised to see some light snow flurries mixing in with some of the rain across northern and northwestern portions of south central Texas (Mason, Llano, northern Burnet, northern Williamson, northern Milam Counties)...travel impacts possible north of south central Texas, head's up if you're heading to Dallas
Hi: 44°F (Wind chills in the 30s)
Wind: N 10-15 mph
Tuesday Night: Clearing & cold with lows in the 30s (freeze likely in low-lying/out-lying areas)
Lo: 34°F (29-32°F low-lying spots)
Wind: Calm
Wednesday: Sunny & much WARMER after a cold start; highs in the mid to upper 50s
Hi: 59°F
Wind: S 5-15 mph
***Between Sunday and Tuesday afternoon 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain may fall across the area...some spots may receive as much as 0.75 inches***
***PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS ONLY A FORECAST AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AT ANYTIME...FOR A MORE CURRENT AND UP TO DATE LOOK AT THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS, MAKE SURE TO VISIT MY FACEBOOK WEATHER PAGE, MICHAEL'S WEATHER CENTER. YOU DO NOT NEED TO HAVE A FACEBOOK ACCOUNT TO VIEW IT***
LINK TO MY FACEBOOK PAGE:
https://www.facebook.com/michaelswxcenter
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