Good Friday evening everybody and TGIF! Lots to talk about in the weather department. The spring-like weather we have been experiencing the past couple of days is about to come to a screeching halt. Gusty southerly winds today are thanks to a strong area of surface low pressure currently located around Wichita Falls, TX (northwest Texas/southwest Oklahoma)...that surface low will continue to shift east and open up the door for a strong cold front to push into south central Texas late Saturday afternoon into the evening hours. While I'm not expecting a dramatic drop in temperatures behind the front Saturday evening, it will open the door for Arctic Air to move into the area late Sunday afternoon into the evening hours on gusty northerly winds. At the same time the cold Arctic Air is moving in here at the surface, warm, moist air will be forced up and over the cold air at the surface, that set-up is what meteorologists refer to as overrunning. Combine that set-up with upper level disturbances (areas of fast winds aloft) and that is likely going to mean trouble for a good chunk of central and north Texas beginning as early as Sunday afternoon persisting through Tuesday morning. Too early to say if wintry precipitation is going to become an issue for the Austin Metro Area on Monday/Monday night, however, it is beginning to look like the western and northwestern Hill Country may have to contend with some freezing rain/sleet as early as Monday morning. This forecast is highly dependent on temperature and a difference of one or two degrees can make a world of difference.
Day by Day Timeline:
Saturday: Cloudy, drizzly start to the day in the upper 50s and lower 60s will give way to a partly sunny & spring-like afternoon with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s across the area ahead of a late afternoon/early evening frontal passage; front will move through the northwestern Hill Country earlier keeping highs down into the 60s...a light shower or two possible along the front as it moves through the area
Hi: 74ºF
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, breezy, gradually turning colder behind evening cold front
Lo: 49ºF
Sunday: Cloudy, windy, turning much colder as Arctic Air begins to filter into the area by early to late evening; drizzle/light rain possible during the afternoon/evening
Hi: 56ºF (falling into the 40s by evening)
Sunday Night: Cloudy, windy & COLD with lows dropping into the 30s area wide as Arctic Air moves in; drizzle/light rain possible
Lo: 34ºF (wind chills in the upper 20s and lower 30s)
Monday: Cloudy & COLD with drizzle/light rain likely...freezing rain/sleet mix possible north and west of Austin, possibly extending south into Austin Metro Area during the afternoon and evening hours... surface temperatures must be below freezing for freezing rain to become an issue
Hi: 35ºF
Forecast Precipitation Type/Rate and Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) for the south central U.S. for 6 P.M. CST Monday (GFS 00Z FEB 21 MODEL RUN)
GREEN=RAIN...PINK=SLEET...BLUE=SNOW
Monday Night: COLD with areas of light rain/light freezing rain and sleet
***elevated roadways across the Hill Country and northern/western Austin Metro Area need to be monitored closely for possible ice accumulation***
Lo: 31ºF
Tuesday: AM light wintry mix transitions to just a cloudy and cold afternoon
Hi: 40ºF
And get this, a second, possibly stronger Arctic Front is forecast to blow through the area Thursday afternoon/evening possibly giving us another shot at wintry precipitation across the area on Friday/Saturday.
***PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT THIS IS JUST A FORECAST AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE***
No comments:
Post a Comment