Severe Thunderstorm Risk This Evening

Forecast Discussion
Good afternoon folks! Another very warm spring day in progress across central and south central Texas ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance and its associated surface cold front. As of the 3 p.m. update at both Camp Mabry and Austin Bergstrom International Airport the temperature is 90°F with a feels like temperature of 97°F thanks to the very soupy Gulf air mass in place thanks to strong southerly winds feeding this approaching storm system.

Severe Weather Threat this Evening
DETAILED FORECAST DISCUSSION
The atmosphere is very unstable across the area right now, however, a strong capping inversion, or lid on the atmosphere, is currently holding strong across the area. The leading edge of the cold front is currently pushing through the far western Hill Country and has already moved through places like Llano and Junction where temperatures are closer to 80°F with breezy northwesterly winds in place.

The upper level energy with this approaching storm system is still located across west Texas, but is beginning to rapidly move east towards the I-35 corridor. The latest high resolution forecast models continue to indicate that storms will initially have a hard time developing for areas along and west of the I-35 corridor in central Texas late this afternoon and evening given the strong capping inversion in place, however, the models do indicate that storms may have an easier time developing once the front crosses the I-35 corridor and moves into eastern sections of central and south central Texas.

Because the atmosphere is so unstable across the area, any storm that is able to get going this afternoon/evening, will have a good chance of becoming severe with large hail and damaging winds. Storms will initially be isolated to scattered in nature this afternoon/evening, but likely to increase in coverage as they move along and east of the I-35 corridor. With this in mind, please remain weather aware and have a way to receive any watches and/or warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

Severe Weather Risk Outlook
Given the threat of severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center has placed counties along and east of the I-35 corridor in the SLIGHT RISK (yellow shaded region) category for potential severe weather this afternoon/evening...an ENHANCED RISK (orange shaded region) of severe weather has been put in place for areas well north and east of the Austin Metro Area where severe weather is more likely to develop.

Storm Timeline
Between 4pm-Midnight scattered storms will be possible, some of which may be severe with large hail and damaging winds...keep an eye to the sky this evening. The storms that develop between now and midnight will be the ones that have the best potential of bringing severe weather.

Midnight-7 a.m. Sunday Morning additional showers and thunderstorms may move across the area, however, these are not likely to be severe, but one or two may be on the strong side

Conditions rapidly clear from west to east early Sunday morning as much drier and cooler air infiltrates the region on breezy northwesterly winds...highs Sunday only in the 70s with lows dipping into the 40s and 50s by early Monday morning. It's going to feel great!