A potent upper level low spinning over the desert southwest is approaching the state of Texas from the west. Out ahead of this upper level storm system, Gulf of Mexico moisture is streaming north into our area as evidenced by the widespread clouds and patchy sprinkles across the area this afternoon. This approaching upper level low combined with Gulf moisture and a surface frontal system will work together to produce widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area beginning late tonight across west Texas and shifting into central Texas Sunday morning/afternoon. The storms that develop are very likely to be strong/severe capable of producing all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). Along with the threat of severe weather, torrential downpours and localized areas of flash flooding will be possible.
Sunday Severe Risk
The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas east of Austin from Milam, Lee, and Fayette Counties to southwestern Louisiana including the Houston Metro Area and Bryan/College Station area under a MODERATE RISK for severe weather on Sunday. This is a threat level 4 on the severe weather risk scale.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the I-35 corridor from Waco to San Marcos (including the Austin Metro Area) under an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather on Sunday. This is a threat level 3.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Hill Country west of the Austin Metro Area under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather on Sunday. This is a threat level 2.
THREAT LEVEL 4: MODERATE RISK (red shaded region)
Widespread, intense, and long-lived severe storms likely; strong tornadoes possible along with widespread wind damage and destructive hail in excess of 2 inches in diameter...Houston Metro Area included in this category
THREAT LEVEL 3: ENHANCED RISK (orange shaded region)
Numerous severe storms possible (storms will be more persistent and/or widespread, a few of the storms will be intense capable of producing a few tornadoes, several reports of wind damage and damaging hail between 1-2 inches in diameter...Austin Metro included in this category
THREAT LEVEL 2: SLIGHT RISK (yellow shaded region)
Scattered severe storms possible, short-lived and/or not widespread, isolated intense storms possible capable of producing one or two tornadoes, reports of strong winds/wind damage, and hail of about, but not limited to 1 inch in diameter...San Antonio Metro included in this category
***We need to remain weather aware over the next 24-36 hours across central and south central Texas. The chance for significant severe weather is in place. Please have a way of receiving severe weather alerts. If you have turned off your emergency alerts on your cell phone, this is a good time to turn those alerts back on, they may end up saving your life***
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