Brutal Heat ahead of Hopeful Pattern Change

Forecast Discussion

We officially topped out at 103°F Thursday afternoon in Austin at Camp Mabry and 101°F at the airport. Today makes our 24^th day of triple digit heat in Austin for 2017 and our 10^th day in a row of 100°+ heat. We’ve got two more really hot days on tap before a gradual weather pattern change occurs for the second half of the weekend and into next week.

The hottest official temperature recorded in Austin so far this year has been 104°F set back on June 23^rd and July 21^st (both reached at Camp Mabry). We have a very good chance of hitting 104°F again in Austin tomorrow (Friday) and an even better chance of exceeding 104°F on Saturday as the relentless summer heat builds more ahead of an approaching weak late July cool front. The only sliver of good news is that slightly drier afternoon air is helping to keep heat indices (feels like temperatures) from climbing to crazy high levels.

Friday Forecast High (Austin/Camp Mabry): 104°F (record high = 105°F set back in 1923)

Saturday Forecast High (Austin/Camp Mabry): 105°F (record high = 105°F set back in 1923)

Saturday's Forecast Highs (High Resolution North American Model)

Late Weekend/Early Next Week Rain Chances

A weak frontal boundary in the area combined with weak upper air disturbances may allow for some scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop around the area on Sunday and Monday. While severe weather is not expected, summertime thunderstorms still pose a hazard with deadly cloud to ground lightning, brief heavy rainfall, small hail, and gusty winds.

Medium to Long Range Outlook

The Climate Prediction Center in their 6-10 day outlook is continuing to indicate below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation for Texas August 2-6 and potentially beyond. We will wait to see if those long range forecasts verify. Medium to long range forecast models are hinting that the big dome of high pressure that has been controlling our weather for the past several weeks will begin to shift west and allow for low pressure to take its place. Low pressure promotes rising air which promotes the development of clouds and hopefully beneficial rains. Let’s keep our fingers crossed.

Texas Drought Update

Moderate to severe drought conditions have returned to central and south central Texas as noted on the Drought Monitor’s latest update (see below)