The Dog Days of Summer

Forecast Discussion:

Hello folks! I think it is safe to say that the Dog Days of Summer are upon us. We have officially reached the century mark or better 19 times this year at Camp Mabry and 8 times at the airport. The hottest recorded air temperature so far this year has been 102°F (reached twice at Camp Mabry on June 22 and June 25). While 102°F may not sound all that hot compared to recent years past, the issue with the heat this year has been the extreme heat indices, or feels like temperatures, thanks to higher humidity levels. This past spring's drought-busting rains have allowed for higher soil moisture across the area and healthier vegetation which in turn is allowing for a steamier atmosphere. It has been the norm this summer for afternoon heat indices to climb well above the 105°F mark (especially for areas along and east of the IH-35 corridor). 

We have plenty more triple digit temperatures on the way for the near future before some changes may begin to nudge temperatures down briefly by the end of the upcoming weekend into early next week. In fact, we may easily tie or break our hottest recorded temperature of the year so far (102°F) several times this week.

With high pressure firmly in control of our weather across central Texas (as evidenced by the clockwise flow of clouds and rain around the state of Texas) temperatures will continue to remain uncomfortable. High pressure promotes sinking air in the atmosphere. In order for significant clouds and cooling showers and thunderstorms to develop we need rising air, better known as lift in the world of meteorology. Persistent southeasterly wind flow off of the Gulf will continue to keep our atmosphere soupy. 

Cool Front/Rain Chances...heat relief?

By the end of this week, an approaching dip in the upper level wind flow over the western United States will allow for the persistent area of high pressure over Texas to ease its grip on our weather. This will actually allow a weak frontal boundary to slip into north central Texas over the weekend which will help to create some lift in our atmosphere and potentially lead to some chances of showers and thunderstorms. While rain/storm coverage is not expected to be widespread over the area, added cloud cover and scattered showers/storms across the region should help to bring afternoon highs down into the mid to upper 90s vs. the lower triple digits. However, a phenomenon known as pre-frontal heating, increased heating ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, may actually end up giving us several very hot afternoons in the coming days with air temperatures having the potential to climb well into the 101-104°F range. 

Return to La Niña Conditions

In Global Weather News, ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), the folks who monitor El Niño and La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, have issued a La Niña Watch stating in their latest report that La Niña (or cooler than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific off of the coast of Peru) are favored to develop between now and October with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña persisting into the fall and winter of 2016-17. La Niña historically means warmer & drier weather for us here in central Texas. This will need to be monitored closely, especially because La Niña's can and do typically lead to drought for us here in Texas.