Storm chances are INCREASING across the area ahead of the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend...some of the storms that develop over the coming days, primarily Thursday and Friday will have the potential to become severe, capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. In addition to the threat of severe weather, flash flooding may also become a problem given very high moisture levels across the area. Early indications are that we may receive an additional 1-3 inches of rain, localized areas of 4 inches possible over the next several days.
Lately everybody has been asking me, what's this weather going to do? It feels and looks like it could pour down at anytime, however, all we end up seeing are sprinkles or spotty showers. Not to get too geeky for you, but in order for a thunderstorm to develop we need THREE ingredients to be present:
-Moisture
-Instability (in simple terms, a large difference in temperatures between the surface and aloft...rapidly cooling air with height)
-Lift (the trigger for a parcel of air at the surface to rise, cold fronts and/or the dry line are excellent producers of lift)
The moisture is definitely in place, the instability is in place, however, the lift is not in place, yet...that will be changing over the coming days as a deepening trough, or valley, of low pressure at the mid levels of the atmosphere approaches the area sending disturbances, or atmospheric ripples, across the area providing lift.
Storm chances will begin to increase across the area as early as tomorrow (Wednesday) evening and really increase for Thursday, Thursday Night, and Friday.
Severe Weather Risk Areas over the coming days:
Light Green = General Storms (<5% chance of severe weather)
Dark Green = Marginal Risk (5% chance of severe weather)
Yellow = Slight Risk (15% chance of severe weather)
Orange = Enhanced Risk (30% chance of severe weather)
***probabilities above represent chances of seeing severe weather, not chances for seeing showers and storms***
Wednesday/Wednesday Evening:
Thursday/Thursday Evening:
Friday/Friday Evening:
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