Monday, August 15, 2016

Flash Flood Watch

Forecast Discussion:
Good Afternoon Folks! Is it really August? As of 2pm, the current temperature at Camp Mabry is 74°F with light rain falling. Compare that to the high of 105°F on Friday with a feels like temperature closer to 120°F.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for all of south central Texas through 7 pm CDT Tuesday Evening....

An additional 1-4 inches of rain will be possible between now and tomorrow evening

Numerous locations have received between 3-5 inches of rain over the past several days with some areas receiving even more than that. Additional heavy rainfall will be quick to run-off and may overwhelm creeks, streams, and low-spots across the area. Please remember, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN if you come across a flooded roadway.

Current Radar Imagery:


Weather Set-Up:

The tropical disturbance, or area of low pressure, that hammered Louisiana over the past several days is now located across Missouri and Illinois. A stationary frontal boundary extends from the Midwest into central and south central Texas with another disturbance, or area of low pressure located southwest of San Antonio. These two areas of low pressure are drawing in plentiful amounts of tropical moisture into the area. That moisture is then being forced to slam into the stalled frontal boundary acting as a wall for this moisture to be wrung out.

Here's a look at the Surface Weather Map with the two areas of low pressure added in:

Here's a look at available moisture in the atmosphere across the state of Texas...the dark greens represent deep tropical moisture being pulled all the way north into Texas from the Caribbean Sea...a tropical moisture pipeline: 


Light to moderate rains over the area now will continue through the afternoon and may pick up in intensity later this evening and overnight as the disturbance southwest of San Antonio creeps across the area. I'm watching some heavy showers and storms just north of Corpus that may blossom into a more widespread area of rain that would move across our area later this evening.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed our area in the SLIGHT to MODERATE risk area for excessive rainfall...see map below:


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