WINDY Thursday

Forecast Discussion

A cooler air mass has settled into the area today behind an early morning cold front. Temperatures are in the 50s area wide (some 10-15 degrees cooler than highs yesterday). The cold front has stalled out to our south (just north of Corpus Christi) and will be turning back to the north as a warm front this evening. This will allow southerly winds and Gulf moisture to briefly return to south central Texas ahead of our next fast approaching upper level disturbance and cold front that will cross the state of Texas on Thursday.

2 P.M. Temperatures across Texas/South Central United States (image courtesy of weatherbell analytics):

SLIGHT Rain Chance Overnight into Thursday Morning:

Milder, muggier Gulf Air will stream north into the area overnight leading to widespread clouds and patchy areas of fog. Some patchy drizzle/very light rain showers cannot be completely ruled out. Lows tonight only manage the 50s thanks to southerly wind flow in place. Best chances for some rain showers Thursday look to be north and east of the I-35 corridor.  

Windy, Roller Coaster Thursday:

Cloudy, dreary start to the day in the 50s will give way to a clearing sky from the west as gusty west southwesterly winds in the morning scour out the moisture over the area ahead of a late morning/early afternoon cold front that will turn winds to the northwest for the remainder of the day. A tight pressure gradient setting up over the area will promote a windy afternoon across south central Texas. Those gusty northwesterly winds will help to pull some chilly air into the region by late Thursday and especially into the overnight hours.

>Winds will gust 25-30 mph Thursday afternoon…sustained winds of 10-20 mph expected

>If clouds clear out as expected Thursday morning, west southwesterly winds will help temperatures to skyrocket into the upper 60s my noon with falling temperatures expected during the afternoon and especially late afternoon hours as colder air filters into the region on those gusty northwest winds.

>This is NOT an Arctic Front, and really not all that strong of a front for mid-January, however, it will bring a nice cool down.

>Allergy sufferers you have been warned. Thursday is going to be a nasty day for you folks. I would recommend limiting your time outdoors as much as possible given the expected windy conditions.

Cool Sunny Friday Expected, Cold and Clear Friday Night/Saturday Morning:

Significantly less windy conditions expected on Friday behind the front, however, a chilly air mass in its place will only allow highs to climb into the 50s area wide after starting the day in the 30s and lower 40s…a few locations south of Austin may briefly touch 60°F.

Once the sun sets Friday evening, temperatures will cool off in a hurry. I’m expecting a widespread freeze across the area with only downtown Austin perhaps staying a degree or two above freezing. This will be a hard freeze for out-lying, low-lying areas with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s expected.

Forecast Lows According to the American Forecast Model Saturday Morning:

Warming trend takes us into what should be a beautiful weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny/partly cloudy.