We are enjoying another beautiful January day across south central Texas. Abundant sunshine combined with the dry air mass in place and a returning southerly flow has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s across the area. Clouds will begin to increase from the west southwest later this evening and into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching weak upper level disturbance on Thursday. Lows will manage to drop into the 40s area wide tonight under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The bulk of the upper level energy with Thursday's disturbance will pass to our south where the best moisture will be in place to generate some rain. I'm going to include a slight chance for rain in Austin on Thursday (20%), however, I do believe that the best rainfall chances will stay to our south and east closer to the coast. Highs will still manage to climb into the 60s on Thursday despite the added cloud cover and rain chances. A weak Pacific frontal boundary will move through the area late Thursday into Friday and switch our winds to the west northwest on Friday shaping us up for a beautiful sunny day with afternoon highs in the 60s after morning lows in the 40s.
Weekend Outlook:
A quick-moving upper level disturbance and its associated Canadian Cold Front will move through the area on Saturday morning...behind the front on Saturday winds will really pick up out of the north at 15-25 mph...gusts closer to if not exceeding 30 mph will be possible. Cedar sufferers you have been warned! Sharply colder temperatures will move in behind Saturday's cold front with temperatures dropping into the 30s area wide by Sunday morning with wind chills bottoming out in the 20s. Areas north and west of the Austin Metro Area run the risk of receiving a light freeze Saturday night/Sunday morning. I think temperatures will manage to stay just above freezing here in Austin.
Sunday Morning Forecast Low Temperatures (GFS Forecast Model):
High temperatures on Saturday are going to depend on the timing of the cold frontal passage, if the front slows down highs will manage to rebound into the 60s, however, if the front moves through sooner highs will likely stay down in the 50s.
Saturday's Rain/Snow Chances
There is a slight chance for some light rain showers with Saturday's disturbance, however, the best chances for precipitation look to stay north of the area where areas along the Red River may receive a rain/snow mix on Saturday...some forecast models want to bring some snow as far south as the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex on Saturday, however, that is not a sure thing at this point. Even if some snow flurries occurred NO accumulation is expected at this point in time.
24 Hour Probability of Snow Accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch by Saturday evening: You can see the chances for accumulating snow are rather low and will stay well north of south central Texas. Areas shaded in lime green on the map below have a 10% chance of receiving 1 inch or less of snow with areas in dark green getting a 20% chance.
Sunny and cool conditions settle into the area Sunday afternoon with afternoon highs expected to rebound into the middle to upper 50s after a chilly start to the day in the 30s. Lows drop back into the 30s once again Sunday night into Monday morning.
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