Good Tuesday afternoon everybody. Abundant sunshine and a warm southwesterly, down-sloping wind above the surface has allowed for another well above average afternoon across south central Texas. We officially topped out at 79°F at Camp Mabry this afternoon (17 degrees above the average high of 62°F for this time of year) and 78°F at the airport (15 degrees above their average high of 63°F for this time of year). In fact, we came very close to tying the record highs at both official weather stations this afternoon...record high for this date at Mabry is 81°F set back in 1941 and 80°F at the airport set back in 1988.
Tonight/Overnight:
>>>Southerly surface wind flow increasing across the area this afternoon in response to an approaching upper air disturbance from the west. The tail end of the upper level energy with this system will skirt the area overnight and allow a weak Pacific frontal boundary (dry line) to move through the area overnight.
>>>Widespread low clouds with embedded areas of mist and/or drizzle likely across the area late tonight into early Wednesday morning ahead of this approaching weather system. A few scattered light rain showers will be possible here across south central Texas with the potential for some heavier downpours and brief thunderstorms north of our area. An isolated heavy downpour or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out late tonight/early Wednesday morning for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor as the Pacific Front/Dry Line crosses the area.
>>>Lows tonight will be significantly warmer across the area thanks to the southerly wind flow off of the Gulf across the area. Lows tonight will actually be warmer than our average highs for this time of year in the mid to upper 60s.
Forecast Clouds/Radar at 1 a.m. (HRRR Model)
Image above courtesy of Penn State Department of Meteorology
Wednesday's Forecast:
>>>Widespread morning low clouds, drizzle, and scattered rain showers will give way to a mainly sunny, drier, and warmer Wednesday with highs easily expected to climb into the upper 70s to near, if not exceeding, the 80°F mark in a few locations. The west southwesterly wind and dry air behind the dry line will allow for temperatures to warm up nicely. Wednesday night/Christmas Eve morning will be cooler thanks to the drier air in place with lows expected to dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area...some patchy areas of fog may develop by Christmas Eve morning (especially for areas south and east of Austin).
Enhanced risk of severe weather across the southeastern United States (hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes all possible, especially in areas shaded in orange on Wednesday)...just a head's up if you or anyone you know is traveling in that direction tomorrow
Christmas Eve (Thursday) Forecast:
Gulf moisture quickly returns to the area as a deep trough, or dip in the jet stream begins to set up across the western United States...return flow off of the Gulf will allow for moisture to come surging back up into the area and keep highs well above average for this time of year. Highs will easily manage the mid to upper 70s. A few light rain showers will be possible across the area, especially during the evening hours as southerly surface wind flow increases in response to dropping surface pressure across the plains.
>>>Highs: Mid to Upper 70s
>>>Lows: Upper 50s to lower 60s
Christmas Day (Friday) Forecast:
Cloudy and mild start to the day with temperatures near 60°F gives way to a mostly cloudy, warm, humid, and breezy afternoon with highs once again climbing well above average into the mid to upper 70s...some light rain showers will be possible during the daytime and evening hours as southerly flow continues to strengthen ahead of a deepening trough of low pressure across the western United States.
Christmas Weekend: Potentially Stormy & Finally Turning Cooler!
A large and potent upper level low pressure system and deep trough, or valley, of lower atmospheric pressure approaches the area late Christmas Day into Saturday...ahead of this approaching storm system and its associated cold front, southerly flow will persist and keep us in a mostly cloudy, humid, showery, and well above average temperature trend. As the upper level energy and its associated surface cold front cross the area late Saturday into early Sunday I'm expecting widespread showers and storms to develop across the area (moving from west to east across the area). A few of the storms will approach the strong side with heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty winds, and perhaps some small to medium sized hail. Too soon to say just how much rain we are going to receive, but upwards of 0.5 to 1.5 inches would not be out of the question. There is the potential for some drier air to move into the area and mid levels of the atmosphere ahead of this storm system. If that in fact happens, rain chances and amounts would be greatly reduced.
Texas Snow:
On the back side of this cold front and upper level low, cold Canadian Air will come pouring south into the state of Texas. The Panhandle is preparing for a big ice/snow storm...NO SNOW/ICE for central Texas, however, some much cooler air will move into the area behind the front on Sunday and stick around into the new week with highs dropping into the upper 50s and lows dropping into the 30s. We will have to continue to monitor temperature trends over the coming days and continue to monitor the very latest forecast model guidance as things will still change with this system.
Forecast Sea Level Pressure/Precipitation Intensity/Type for 6 a.m. Sunday morning:
Forecast Surface Air Temperatures for 6 a.m. Sunday morning:
Images above courtesy of Tropical Tidbits
Wishing each and every one of you a very Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. May it be a blessed holiday for each of you spent among great friends and family. Wishing each of you the best of health, happiness, and prosperity.
Of course I will be monitoring the weather over the next several days as you should too! Especially as we approach the upcoming holiday weekend.
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