We woke up to another chilly day across south central Texas with temperatures in the 30s and 40s area wide. Some patchy areas of fog developed thanks to the very efficient cooling that took place last night thanks to clear skies and dry air in place.
Well-above average Temps/Near Record Heat Possible
>>>Today (Tuesday) marks a warming trend for south central Texas that will take us into the first half of the weekend. Highs will easily manage to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday and Friday with a southwesterly component to the wind flow over the area at the lower levels of the atmosphere. Southwesterly wind flow for us here in central Texas is a warming wind because air is forced to compress as it moves from the higher elevations of northern Mexico into central Texas. Weak high pressure in place will allow for mostly sunny conditions to persist through Friday.
Forecast High Temperature Trend through Sunday
Data below for Camp Mabry, Austin, Texas
>>>A weak surface trough of lower pressure (or more simply a wind shift) will sneak into the area late tonight and shift winds to the west northwest allowing for some drier air to filter into the area. Some areas of fog may be able to develop ahead of this feature late tonight in some locations before drier air filters into the area. Overall, lows will be relatively WARMER tonight across the area in the 40s...upper 40s to near 50°F in Austin.
>>>As a large trough of low pressure digs south across the western United States on Thursday, surface pressures will fall to our north and allow for southerly winds to increase across the area which will effectively allow for Gulf of Mexico moisture to return to the area by Saturday ahead of our next cold front and upper level storm system. This trough of low pressure will track across the state of Texas Saturday and Sunday and give us a threat of storms as cooler air rushes into the state on its back side.
Saturday Storm Threat:
There is a chance for showers and storms with the front Saturday afternoon and evening, with some lingering activity possible into the morning hours on Sunday. The Storm Prediction Center is indicating is monitoring a good portion of central and east Texas for the possibility of some severe weather across the area on Saturday as the front moves through. Obviously, I will continue to keep a close eye on that through the week. As of right now, I feel like the best chance for storms, and appreciable rainfall will come east of the Austin area, however, latest forecast solutions indicate a 30-40% chance for storms Saturday afternoon/evening, some of which may be strong/severe with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Flooding does not look to be an issue with this weather system because of its forecast fast-moving/progressive nature. Rainfall will generally be less than a half an inch, if that. More east, less west.
Cooler Sunday:
Cooler air filters into the area behind the front late Saturday into Sunday on breezy northerly winds. This cold front will help to knock highs and lows closer to slightly below average for this time of year. Highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s with overnight lows in the lower 40s for Sunday/Sunday night...a few morning showers will be possible.
Next Week:
Quick warming trend ensues on Monday ahead of another, potentially stronger cold front by the middle of next week. Latest indications showing several blasts of cooler air arriving leading up to Christmas. I'll be keeping my fingers crossed for model consistency!
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