A potent upper level storm system currently located over New Mexico will be bringing us the opportunity for thunderstorms late this evening and overnight. Out ahead of this storm system, sticky Gulf of Mexico moisture has infiltrated the region and combined with the approaching storm system and a surface dry line and cold front will be the fuel for a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening (predominately for areas north and west of the Austin Area) and then widespread thunderstorms late evening into the early morning hours of Thursday for all of central and south central Texas. Storms that are able to develop this afternoon and early evening will have the potential to produce very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The most likely areas for this type of weather will be for areas north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. I'm expecting quiet conditions across south central Texas until after 10 pm.
What to expect
Given the potent nature of this approaching storm system, severe weather will be possible across the area late this evening into early Thursday morning (pre-dawn). The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large swatch of north, central and south central Texas under an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather today/tonight. An enhanced risk is a level 3 out of 5 severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center defines an enhanced risk as "numerous severe storms possible" and the storms that develop will be "more persistent and/or widespread, a few intense."
Severe Weather Threat: Enhanced Risk (Orange shaded areas)
All modes of severe weather will be possible tonight (large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated spin-up tornado). I believe the greatest risks for the I-35 corridor will be the potential for some larger hail (potentially up to the size of golf balls) & some damaging wind gusts. Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain will accompany all storms that develop.
Areas surrounding the enhanced risk area are in a slight risk (yellow shaded areas) category (threat level 2 out of 5)
What makes a thunderstorm severe?
A thunderstorm is considered to be severe by the National Weather Service if it's producing:
- hail of at least of one inch in diameter or greater (quarter-sized)
- and/or winds in excess of 58 mph or greater
- and/or a tornado
Storm Timeline (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Imagery)
*times below are an estimate, line of storms will arrive along the I-35 corridor between 11:30 pm to 1:30 am
9 pm | Line of storms develops across the far western Hill Country
11 pm | Line of storms pushing through the Hill Country (still west of the Hwy 281 corridor)
1 am | Line of storms overtakes the I-35 corridor
3 am | Residual light to moderate rains continue across the I-35 corridor; heaviest storms pushing through Lee & Fayette County
7 am | Line of storms pushing through east and southeast Texas
How much rain can we expect?
On average 0.5 - 1.5 inches of rain...some areas out west will see less than that and some areas along and east of the I-35 corridor may see more than that. Flash flooding is not expected to be a concern at this time, but short-lived heavy downpours may result in minor street flooding late tonight/early Thursday.
Thursday/Easter Weekend Outlook
All of this activity will quickly push east of the area by sunrise Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west leaving us with a sunny, gusty, and cooler day with highs in the 70s. Highs rebound into the 80s by the weekend with more cloud cover returning each day. No rain is expected.
***Please remain weather aware this evening and overnight and have a way to receive watches/warnings. It would be a good idea to have a flash light handy and your cell phones fully charged by midnight tonight just in case power goes out in your area.
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