Flash Flood Watch/Severe Weather Risk

Hello, folks! The fourth storm system this month has its eyes set on Texas and we're already feeling its effects. The upper level low is currently located in northern Mexico south of Arizona and is pushing disturbances across the state of Texas out ahead of it. These disturbances generate lift in our atmosphere. That lift helps to promote the development of showers and thunderstorms.

Image above courtesy of earth wind map and is depicting upper level winds over Mexico and the United States

Gulf moisture has already made a big return to the area as of Wednesday afternoon as evidenced by dew point temperatures in the upper 60s. At the surface a cold front is currently draped along the I-20 corridor across West Texas and is the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Yellow shaded area north west of south central Texas is under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 11pm CDT this evening. The storms outlined in red boxes are severe.

Texas Radar Update as of 5:20 pm CDT Tuesday evening

What should we expect in central Texas?

This evening/overnight:Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will remain well to the north and west of our region tonight. A few thunderstorms may try and creep into northwestern areas of the Hill Country, but the storms will hold off for the I-35 corridor until Wednesday and especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. With that being said, a brief passing shower or downpour cannot be ruled out overnight and early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will only manage the 60s area wide thanks to a persistent moist southerly breeze off of the Gulf of Mexico.

Wednesday Morning: Showers and storms may be ongoing across portions of the northwestern Hill Country and a large portion of west Texas slowly spreading south and east into the Hill Country during the early afternoon hours.

Wednesday afternoon/evening: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to pop up along the I-35 corridor, becoming more widespread as a line of storms develops across the Hill Country and pushes slowly east through the I-35 corridor during the early evening hours. This is when the worst of the storms are expected in Austin/IH-35 corridor. In addition to the threat of locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground lightning, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large swath of central, south central, south, and southeast Texas under a SLIGHT RISK area for potential severe weather on Wednesday. This is a threat level 2 out of 5 and indicates that scattered severe storms will be possible, but the severe storms that develop will be short-lived and/or not widespread; however, an isolated intense storm or two is possible.

Forecast Radar Graphic (this is what one model believes the radar will look like at different times of the day on Wednesday)

Wednesday Severe Weather Threats

Flash Flood Watch (counties shaded in green)
in effect for the following counties: Travis, Williamson, Hays, Burnet, Blanco, Llano, and Gillespie from 7 am CDT Wednesday until midnight Thursday. Widespread amounts of 2-4 inches of rain will be possible in these locations with isolated higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible.

Images above courtesy of the Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office

Please remember, IF YOU COME ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!!!