Hello Spring!

Forecast Discussion

Spring officially arrived at 5:28 a.m. this morning! Meteorological spring officially began back on March 1^st.

Surface high pressure centered over the Gulf of Mexico and surface low pressure located over northwestern Oklahoma are creating breezy southerly winds over central Texas this afternoon. As of 4 p.m. CDT, the temperature at Camp Mabry is 84°F and 84°F at the airport. Where the air is drier 

out across north and west Texas, temperatures have soared into the lower 90s.

More of the same is set to continue for the majority of this week. Late night low clouds will give way to partly cloudy and warm afternoons in the 80s. Southerly winds will stay on the breezy side through the week. Southerly winds will keep the humid Gulf air in place and really limit the amount of cooling during the overnight hours. Lows only expected to bottom out in the lower to middle 60s.

Storm Chances late Thursday & Friday

Storm chances increase towards the end of the work week, peaking on Friday as an upper air disturbance and its associated surface frontal system move across the area from west to east. As it stands right now, the best dynamics for thunderstorms (some of which have the potential to become strong and/or severe) look to remain north of central and south central Texas. That will need to be monitored closely in the days to come. Storms would develop out to our west late Thursday and spread east into the I-35 corridor Friday morning into Friday afternoon. I’m putting storm chances right at 50% for Friday. Latest forecast model rainfall accumulation is indicating less than a half an inch, with the majority of totals coming in around 0.25 inches. Drier conditions will move into the area behind Friday’s potential storms for the upcoming weekend.  

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has gone ahead and kept areas north and east of central Texas under a risk area for potential severe thunderstorms on Friday. Yellow shaded region = potential severe weather risk area. Remember, a thunderstorm is considered to be severe if it is producing hail of at least one inch in diameter, and/or winds of 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado. Lightning intensity and rainfall intensity DO NOT determine if a storm is severe.