Labor Day Heat & Tropical Hermine

Forecast Discussion:

Good Wednesday afternoon folks! We've made it to the middle of the week, and the big Labor Day Weekend is nearly upon us. It's mainly just going to be hot for us here in central Texas, but we cannot rule out some scattered afternoon and evening showers and thundershowers across the area. The big weather story over the coming days is going to be the newly formed Tropical Storm Hermine in the Gulf of Mexico with current sustained winds of 40 mph gusting to 50 mph. Hermine is NOT going to be affecting Texas as she has her eyes set on the gulf coast of Florida right now and eventually the Atlantic Seaboard. 

The very latest public advisories from the National Hurricane Center concerning Tropical Storm Hermine can be found HERE.

Latest Forecast Track for Tropical Storm Hermine: 

Areas shaded in BLUE/PINK along the Florida Gulf Coast are under a TROPICAL STORM WARNING and a HURRICANE WATCH...Hermine has the potential to strengthen into a minimal category one hurricane before making landfall. 

Here's a look at the latest visible satellite image of Hermine courtesy of NASA:

Central Texas Temps through Labor Day: 

Highs will remain in the low to mid 90s through the upcoming Labor Day Weekend with overnight lows remaining warm in the 70s. Afternoon heat indices, thanks to high humidity, will remain very close to the century mark. 

Weekend Rain Likely

Forecast Discussion:
Good afternoon Folks and TGIF! What a crazy weather week this has been considering we are in the middle of August. Numerous locations in central Texas have received over 5 inches of rain this past week with several locations receiving over 10 inches. Guess what, more is on the way!

Weekend Rain Set-Up:
Another rare August cool front will be sliding south into the area over the weekend and stall out. This frontal boundary, combined with upper level energy and plentiful amounts of moisture, will act as a trigger mechanism for showers and storms to develop. The heaviest of rains look to remain west of the I-35 corridor this time around, but nothing is certain when it comes to the weather. Early indications are that the Hill Country on general may receive an additional 3-5 inches of rain, with areas along and east of the I-35 corridor potentially receiving an additional 1-3 inches of rain. These totals are not set in stone and are likely to vary over the coming days.

Forecast Rainfall Totals (Weather Prediction Center Forecast Accumulation Map):

No Watches in effect, yet:
At this time, the National Weather Service has not re-issued a Flash Flood Watch for the area, however, that may change over the weekend or possibly as early as later this evening. The Weather Service is waiting on the latest forecast rainfall projections to make the call.

Temperatures:
A benefit out of all of this wet weather will be the well below average temperatures, clouds and rain will help to keep afternoon highs in the 80s to near 90°F over the weekend, although the humidity will be quite oppressive.

Safety:
The most important thing for you to remember is to be safe and have a way to receive severe weather watches/warnings/advisories. Please remember, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!!!

Flash Flood Watch

Forecast Discussion:
Good Afternoon Folks! Is it really August? As of 2pm, the current temperature at Camp Mabry is 74°F with light rain falling. Compare that to the high of 105°F on Friday with a feels like temperature closer to 120°F.

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for all of south central Texas through 7 pm CDT Tuesday Evening....

An additional 1-4 inches of rain will be possible between now and tomorrow evening

Numerous locations have received between 3-5 inches of rain over the past several days with some areas receiving even more than that. Additional heavy rainfall will be quick to run-off and may overwhelm creeks, streams, and low-spots across the area. Please remember, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN if you come across a flooded roadway.

Current Radar Imagery:

Weather Set-Up:

The tropical disturbance, or area of low pressure, that hammered Louisiana over the past several days is now located across Missouri and Illinois. A stationary frontal boundary extends from the Midwest into central and south central Texas with another disturbance, or area of low pressure located southwest of San Antonio. These two areas of low pressure are drawing in plentiful amounts of tropical moisture into the area. That moisture is then being forced to slam into the stalled frontal boundary acting as a wall for this moisture to be wrung out.

Here's a look at the Surface Weather Map with the two areas of low pressure added in:

Here's a look at available moisture in the atmosphere across the state of Texas...the dark greens represent deep tropical moisture being pulled all the way north into Texas from the Caribbean Sea...a tropical moisture pipeline: 

Light to moderate rains over the area now will continue through the afternoon and may pick up in intensity later this evening and overnight as the disturbance southwest of San Antonio creeps across the area. I'm watching some heavy showers and storms just north of Corpus that may blossom into a more widespread area of rain that would move across our area later this evening.

The Weather Prediction Center has placed our area in the SLIGHT to MODERATE risk area for excessive rainfall...see map below:

Relief is On The Way!

Forecast Discussion:
Good afternoon folks! Another terribly uncomfortable August day in progress across south central Texas. As of the 3pm update at Camp Mabry, the current temperature in Austin is 101°F, however when you factor in the oppressive 72° dew point temperature, the feels like temperature is topping 111°F. Today officially makes 23 degrees of triple digit heat for the year, so far! I know we've got at least two more days of triple digit heat (tomorrow and Saturday) to tick that total up to twenty-five.

Heat Relief?
Forecast models have persistently been indicating that we are going to see a break in this intense heat after Saturday. In fact, rain chances will be returning to the forecast as soon as Saturday afternoon/evening and look to persist through at least the middle portions of next week. As of right now, the best chance for widespread rainfall across the area looks to arrive on Sunday as a Gulf of Mexico disturbance and its associated moisture work together with a dying frontal boundary moving into the area from the north. The added cloud cover and rain/storm chances should help to drop highs down into the lower to mid 90s compared to the triple digit highs we're currently experiencing. While temperatures will go down, unfortunately humidity levels may do the opposite.

Extended Outlook:
The Climate Prediction Center, in their latest 6-10 day outlook are indicating near normal temperatures possible (mid/upper 90s) for our area and above normal rainfall for August 17-21st. If that comes to fruition, it will most certainly be welcome.

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook:

6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook:

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation:

So, how much rain will see over the next 5-7 days? Nailing down exact rainfall totals is not an easy task, but on average 0.25 to 0.75 inches of rain may be common with some locations receiving upwards of 1-3 inches, especially under heavier showers and thunderstorms. The atmosphere will have plenty of moisture to support heavy tropical downpours, so the risk of heavy rainfall will need to be monitored in the coming days. Let's keep our fingers crossed for a good rain event. It will certainly be a welcome sight and treat in the middle of August.

5 Day Forecast Rainfall Accumulation Map (courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center):

Safety: Remember that lightning poses a serious threat. If thunder is heard, you are close enough to a storm to be struck by lightning even if it is not raining at your location or if the sun is out. When thunder roars, go indoors!! Also, use caution when spending time outdoors in this extreme heat. Remember to stay hydrated and wear sunscreen/proper clothing to protect yourself from the extreme heat and the sun's harmful rays.

(Image [GIF] above courtesy of bestanimations.com) 

The Dog Days of Summer

Forecast Discussion:

Hello folks! I think it is safe to say that the Dog Days of Summer are upon us. We have officially reached the century mark or better 19 times this year at Camp Mabry and 8 times at the airport. The hottest recorded air temperature so far this year has been 102°F (reached twice at Camp Mabry on June 22 and June 25). While 102°F may not sound all that hot compared to recent years past, the issue with the heat this year has been the extreme heat indices, or feels like temperatures, thanks to higher humidity levels. This past spring's drought-busting rains have allowed for higher soil moisture across the area and healthier vegetation which in turn is allowing for a steamier atmosphere. It has been the norm this summer for afternoon heat indices to climb well above the 105°F mark (especially for areas along and east of the IH-35 corridor). 

We have plenty more triple digit temperatures on the way for the near future before some changes may begin to nudge temperatures down briefly by the end of the upcoming weekend into early next week. In fact, we may easily tie or break our hottest recorded temperature of the year so far (102°F) several times this week.

With high pressure firmly in control of our weather across central Texas (as evidenced by the clockwise flow of clouds and rain around the state of Texas) temperatures will continue to remain uncomfortable. High pressure promotes sinking air in the atmosphere. In order for significant clouds and cooling showers and thunderstorms to develop we need rising air, better known as lift in the world of meteorology. Persistent southeasterly wind flow off of the Gulf will continue to keep our atmosphere soupy. 

Cool Front/Rain Chances...heat relief?

By the end of this week, an approaching dip in the upper level wind flow over the western United States will allow for the persistent area of high pressure over Texas to ease its grip on our weather. This will actually allow a weak frontal boundary to slip into north central Texas over the weekend which will help to create some lift in our atmosphere and potentially lead to some chances of showers and thunderstorms. While rain/storm coverage is not expected to be widespread over the area, added cloud cover and scattered showers/storms across the region should help to bring afternoon highs down into the mid to upper 90s vs. the lower triple digits. However, a phenomenon known as pre-frontal heating, increased heating ahead of an approaching frontal boundary, may actually end up giving us several very hot afternoons in the coming days with air temperatures having the potential to climb well into the 101-104°F range. 

Return to La Niña Conditions

In Global Weather News, ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), the folks who monitor El Niño and La Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific, have issued a La Niña Watch stating in their latest report that La Niña (or cooler than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific off of the coast of Peru) are favored to develop between now and October with about a 55-60% chance of La Niña persisting into the fall and winter of 2016-17. La Niña historically means warmer & drier weather for us here in central Texas. This will need to be monitored closely, especially because La Niña's can and do typically lead to drought for us here in Texas.