Given that we have officially slipped back into drought here across central Texas after 40+ days without measurable rainfall, it is nice to see rain chances back in the forecast. Unseasonably warm and dry weather has led to an increase in the fire danger across central Texas as vegetation continues to dry out.
As I posted yesterday, moderate drought has returned to central Texas as evidenced by the latest drought monitor released yesterday (02-18-16). Areas of central Texas that have not been officially placed in the moderate drought category have been highlighted in the abnormally dry category.
Latest Drought Monitor Update released 02-18-16
Rain Chances Late Weekend/Early Next Week
Rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday of next week as an upper level disturbance riding a dip in the jet stream moves toward the area and pushes a surface cold front through the region. The upper level lift provided by the disturbance and the surface lift provided by the cold front will both work together to potentially develop some much needed rainfall across the area.
As it looks right now, the bulk of the rainfall will come on Monday as the actual cold front moves through the area. The upper level disturbance, or upper level energy/lift will exit the area behind the initial cold frontal passage on Monday. With this mentioned, rain chances, although slim, will remain in the forecast through Tuesday until another reinforcing cold front moves through the region behind the exiting upper level storm system. The second cold front (late Tuesday/Wednesday) will push some much drier air into the area and effectively cut off our chances for rain.
No severe weather is expected across the area on Monday, however, there may be some thunderstorms around. Remember if you hear thunder you are close enough to a storm to be struck by lightning. It does not have to be raining at your location to be struck by lightning.
WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
Day by Day Outlook Now through Wednesday
Tonight: 61° | Mostly cloudy and mild with areas of fog possible | Wind: S 5-10 mph
Saturday: 77° | Dreary, mild morning gives way to a partly sunny,warm afternoon | Wind: S 5-10 mph
Sunday: 75° | Cloudy, dreary, mild morning gives way to a mostly cloudy afternoon with a 20% chance of showers; rain chances increase late Sunday evening to 40% | Wind: S 5-15 mph
Monday: 70° | 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms | Wind: S/N 5-15 mph
Tuesday: 72° | cooler start to the day near 50° gives way to a breezy, warm, and partly cloudy afternoon...20% chance of a shower/storm | Wind: SSW 5-15 mph
Wednesday: 63° | Breezy and cooler behind an early morning cold front...20% chance of AM shower/storm with clearing skies by afternoon | Wind: NNW 10-20 mph
GFS Forecast Rainfall Accumulation (valid now through midnight Thursday)
(This is just a forecast model and does reflect exact rainfall accumulation...use this as a tool to envision what rainfall accumulation may look like across Texas by the middle of next week...if this particular model verifies, we may see a widespread 0.25-0.75 inches of rain across the area with pockets of higher totals exceeding 1 inch. Areas north and east of central Texas look to receive the highest rainfall accumulation)
Latest Drought Monitor Update released 02-18-16
Rain Chances Late Weekend/Early Next Week
Rain chances will increase late Sunday into Monday of next week as an upper level disturbance riding a dip in the jet stream moves toward the area and pushes a surface cold front through the region. The upper level lift provided by the disturbance and the surface lift provided by the cold front will both work together to potentially develop some much needed rainfall across the area.
As it looks right now, the bulk of the rainfall will come on Monday as the actual cold front moves through the area. The upper level disturbance, or upper level energy/lift will exit the area behind the initial cold frontal passage on Monday. With this mentioned, rain chances, although slim, will remain in the forecast through Tuesday until another reinforcing cold front moves through the region behind the exiting upper level storm system. The second cold front (late Tuesday/Wednesday) will push some much drier air into the area and effectively cut off our chances for rain.
No severe weather is expected across the area on Monday, however, there may be some thunderstorms around. Remember if you hear thunder you are close enough to a storm to be struck by lightning. It does not have to be raining at your location to be struck by lightning.
WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!
Day by Day Outlook Now through Wednesday
Tonight: 61° | Mostly cloudy and mild with areas of fog possible | Wind: S 5-10 mph
Saturday: 77° | Dreary, mild morning gives way to a partly sunny,warm afternoon | Wind: S 5-10 mph
Sunday: 75° | Cloudy, dreary, mild morning gives way to a mostly cloudy afternoon with a 20% chance of showers; rain chances increase late Sunday evening to 40% | Wind: S 5-15 mph
Monday: 70° | 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms | Wind: S/N 5-15 mph
Tuesday: 72° | cooler start to the day near 50° gives way to a breezy, warm, and partly cloudy afternoon...20% chance of a shower/storm | Wind: SSW 5-15 mph
Wednesday: 63° | Breezy and cooler behind an early morning cold front...20% chance of AM shower/storm with clearing skies by afternoon | Wind: NNW 10-20 mph
GFS Forecast Rainfall Accumulation (valid now through midnight Thursday)
(This is just a forecast model and does reflect exact rainfall accumulation...use this as a tool to envision what rainfall accumulation may look like across Texas by the middle of next week...if this particular model verifies, we may see a widespread 0.25-0.75 inches of rain across the area with pockets of higher totals exceeding 1 inch. Areas north and east of central Texas look to receive the highest rainfall accumulation)
Image above courtesy of Pivotal Weather
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