Friday Update

Friday Afternoon Weather Update

Highs have soared into the 70s across all of south central Texas this afternoon on breezy southerly winds...this warm air has made it all the way north into southern Kansas.

3 P.M. Temperatures across the Lower 48

Map above courtesy of Wright-Weather.com 

...Mostly sunny skies and warmer temperatures expected for the upcoming weekend and into Monday of next week ahead of a windy Tuesday cold front...

Saturday...cool start in the 40s gives way to a mostly sunny, warm, and breezy day with highs expected to top out in the mid to upper 70s area wide...

Saturday Night...Mostly clear and mild with lows dipping into the 50s area wide...patchy areas of fog and/or low clouds possible by early Sunday morning thanks to returning Gulf Moisture

Sunday...Patchy morning fog/clouds give way to a mostly sunny and potentially record warm afternoon with highs expected to peak in the upper 70s to lower 80s area wide...while winds at the surface will be out of the south, winds aloft (above the surface) will be blowing out of the west southwest off of the higher terrain of northern Mexico; warm/dry desert air will be mixing down to the surface.

Sunday Night...partly cloudy and breezy with lows dropping into the 50s...low clouds possible by Monday morning on southerly winds.

...Record high temperatures will be in jeopardy on Sunday...the current record in Austin stands at 83°F set back in 1911...82°F at the airport set back in 1971...

Monday...Partly cloudy, breezy and warm with highs in the upper 70s to near 80°F in some locations

Changes Arrive Late Monday Night into Tuesday Morning
...Upper level disturbance and its associated surface low pressure system and attendant cold fronts to move across the area late Monday into Tuesday of next week...slight chance for showers and/or a thunderstorm late Monday into Tuesday morning...no severe weather is expected...

...Forecast Rainfall Accumulation through next Wednesday for the south central United States according to the GFS (American) Forecast Model (here's a hint: it's not predicting much if any rainfall accumulation here across south central Texas, despite the brief opportunity for some rain late Monday night/Tuesday morning)...

Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather...if you are interested in viewing model data for yourselves click HERE

...WINDY conditions expected on Tuesday behind a Pacific Cold Front...dry air, gusty west, northwesterly winds, and dry vegetation will increase fire danger across south central Texas...colder air will filter into the area Tuesday evening and early Wednesday as winds turn more northerly across the area...winds will be sustained out of the west northwest between 15-25 mph with gusts of over 30 mph possible.

...Forecast Wind Speeds across Texas for noon Tuesday according to the GFS Forecast Model...showing very windy conditions across the area...

Image above courtesy of Pivotal Weather

...Highs drop from near 80°F on Monday into the 60s on Tuesday and eventually into the 50s by Wednesday under a sunny sky...

...Light freeze possible for areas north and west of Austin Tuesday night with a widespread freeze possible across all of south central Texas Wednesday night...

Warming Trend

Forecast Discussion:
Hello folks. One more chilly day/night in store for south central Texas before temperatures around here soar to spring-like levels. Trough of upper level low pressure departing to our east will allow a dry west northwesterly wind flow to develop over the state. At the surface and aloft, high pressure is settling over the area.

This afternoon:
Mostly sunny and cool with highs topping out in the mid to upper 50s. A north northeast wind today will ensure that chilly air continues to flow into the region.

Tonight:
Clear skies, calm winds, and a dry air mass in place will allow for a cold night tonight. Lows will drop into the 30s area wide. Low-lying and out-lying areas will receive a freeze tonight. We should stay above freezing right in the heart of Austin.

Rapid Warming Trend:
After a cold start to the day on Thursday, a rapid warm-up is expected by late morning into the afternoon. Highs will easily rebound well into the mid to upper 60s, if not 70°F in some locations.

Highs will continue to rise through the weekend ahead of our next upper level storm system and its attendant surface cold front early next week. Highs on Friday will be well into the 70s with 70s and even lower 80s expected (Sunday) over the weekend. Skies will remain partly cloudy to mostly sunny through the weekend with winds out of the south jogging back and forth from southwesterly to southerly to southeasterly.

Record Warmth Possible Sunday:
The record high on Sunday is 83°F (set back in 1911)...We are definitely going to be close!

The record high on Sunday at the airport is 82°F (set back in 1971)

Cooler/Windy Early Next Week with a slight chance of a Shower/Storm:
Monday will still be warm and breezy with highs in the 70s ahead of a potent upper level storm system and its attendant surface cold front.

Slight chance for a shower/storm Monday night/early Tuesday with the passage of a cold front that will set us up for a cooler and what looks to be WINDY Tuesday across the area. Cooler air looks to filter into the area for the middle of next week behind this storm system.

The next seven days as I see them right now.... 
(Forecast icons below courtesy of The Weather Channel)

Roller Coaster Temperatures

Spring-Like Warmth
We officially climbed to 75°F this afternoon in Austin at Camp Mabry. That's 13 degrees above our average high of 62°F for this time of year. This morning's low of 56°F was also well above average for this time of year too. Average low for late January in Austin is in the lower 40s, so you can see we were well above that.

4 P.M. Temperatures across Texas/South Central U.S.
(You can see the warmth across a good chunk of the region, but notice the cooler air up to the north)

Image above courtesy of WeatherBell Models

Temperature Drop Tuesday/Wednesday
Guess what, changes are already on the way. A cold front will move through the area late tonight into early Tuesday morning. A few light rain showers will be possible with the front, especially for areas south and east of Austin. Much cooler and windier conditions can be expected across the area on your Tuesday with afternoon highs only managing the 50s after waking up in the 40s. Mostly cloudy skies and a gusty north wind funneling in a cooler air mass will help to keep highs down. A few sprinkles or very light rain showers cannot be ruled out on Tuesday, but it is not going to be a big deal.

Significantly colder Tuesday night with lows dipping into the 30s, however, a blanket of clouds and a bit of a north wind will help to keep lows from dropping to the freezing point.

Clouds should clear out for your Wednesday as high pressure builds into the area promoting dry, sinking air over the area. With the cool air mass still in place, highs will once again only manage the 50s, despite a mostly sunny sky.

Freeze Possible Wednesday night/Thursday Morning
Temperatures cool off in a hurry Wednesday night after sunset as skies will be clear and the air will be dry. Both of those factors will set us up for a good night of radiational cooling. I'm expecting temperatures to drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s area wide. Low-lying, out-lying areas should receive a freeze with perhaps only urban areas, like downtown Austin, etc... remaining a degree or two above freezing. If we do see a freeze here in Austin, it will be light meaning that temperatures will only drop to around 32°F for a short period of time. Keep in mind, that low spots within the Austin area near creeks, valleys, etc... will run the risk of a more substantial freeze. Cold air is dense and heavy and likes to sink to the lowest spots on clear, calm nights. 

Warmer End of the Week
Warming trend kicks in on Thursday afternoon as highs climb back into the 60s and eventually way into the 70s for Friday and the upcoming weekend...some long range models want to push us into the lower 80s! Looks like our next cold front/rain chance arrive early next week. We've still got plenty of time to watch that.

WINDY Thursday

Forecast Discussion

A cooler air mass has settled into the area today behind an early morning cold front. Temperatures are in the 50s area wide (some 10-15 degrees cooler than highs yesterday). The cold front has stalled out to our south (just north of Corpus Christi) and will be turning back to the north as a warm front this evening. This will allow southerly winds and Gulf moisture to briefly return to south central Texas ahead of our next fast approaching upper level disturbance and cold front that will cross the state of Texas on Thursday.

2 P.M. Temperatures across Texas/South Central United States (image courtesy of weatherbell analytics):

SLIGHT Rain Chance Overnight into Thursday Morning:

Milder, muggier Gulf Air will stream north into the area overnight leading to widespread clouds and patchy areas of fog. Some patchy drizzle/very light rain showers cannot be completely ruled out. Lows tonight only manage the 50s thanks to southerly wind flow in place. Best chances for some rain showers Thursday look to be north and east of the I-35 corridor.  

Windy, Roller Coaster Thursday:

Cloudy, dreary start to the day in the 50s will give way to a clearing sky from the west as gusty west southwesterly winds in the morning scour out the moisture over the area ahead of a late morning/early afternoon cold front that will turn winds to the northwest for the remainder of the day. A tight pressure gradient setting up over the area will promote a windy afternoon across south central Texas. Those gusty northwesterly winds will help to pull some chilly air into the region by late Thursday and especially into the overnight hours.

>Winds will gust 25-30 mph Thursday afternoon…sustained winds of 10-20 mph expected

>If clouds clear out as expected Thursday morning, west southwesterly winds will help temperatures to skyrocket into the upper 60s my noon with falling temperatures expected during the afternoon and especially late afternoon hours as colder air filters into the region on those gusty northwest winds.

>This is NOT an Arctic Front, and really not all that strong of a front for mid-January, however, it will bring a nice cool down.

>Allergy sufferers you have been warned. Thursday is going to be a nasty day for you folks. I would recommend limiting your time outdoors as much as possible given the expected windy conditions.

Cool Sunny Friday Expected, Cold and Clear Friday Night/Saturday Morning:

Significantly less windy conditions expected on Friday behind the front, however, a chilly air mass in its place will only allow highs to climb into the 50s area wide after starting the day in the 30s and lower 40s…a few locations south of Austin may briefly touch 60°F.

Once the sun sets Friday evening, temperatures will cool off in a hurry. I’m expecting a widespread freeze across the area with only downtown Austin perhaps staying a degree or two above freezing. This will be a hard freeze for out-lying, low-lying areas with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s expected.

Forecast Lows According to the American Forecast Model Saturday Morning:

Warming trend takes us into what should be a beautiful weekend with highs in the 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. Skies should be mostly sunny/partly cloudy.

Two Fronts on the Way!

Forecast Discussion

After soaring into the upper 60s to 70ºF today on breezy southerly winds this afternoon some minor changes are on the way to south central Texas. A relatively weak cold front for mid January is currently moving through the state of Texas as of the 9 p.m. hour. This front will move through the area with little fanfare overnight and allow for some cooler air to filter in on northerly winds. A few light rain showers will be possible along the front tonight with areas of patchy fog developing ahead of it.

Slightly Cooler Wednesday
>>>Wednesday will start cloudy and cool with temperatures in the 30s and 40s...sun breaks by afternoon and a returning east southeasterly wind will allow for temperatures to climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s by afternoon.

Breezy/Gusty Thursday
>>>Clouds and moisture stream back into the area late Wednesday into Thursday ahead of a stronger upper air disturbance and its associated surface cold front. A few light rain showers will be possible late Wednesday into early Thursday morning. Breezy west southwesterly winds Thursday morning will give way to gusty northwesterly winds by afternoon behind a cold front that will bring cooler air into the area. Thursday is NOT going to be a good day for allergy sufferers. 

Cooler Friday, but less windy
>>>Cooler air filters into the area behind Thursday's cold front and drops highs into the 50s area wide Friday with overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area Friday night into Saturday morning. Downtown Austin should stay a few degrees above freezing (32ºF), but low-lying, out-lying areas will likely receive a freeze.

Forecast Lows Friday Night (according to the GFS Forecast Model): 
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Major East Coast Winter Storm This Weekend
>>>The weather system that crosses Texas on Thursday will then progress rapidly east and northeast to produce the first major Nor' Easter across the eastern seaboard. Wind, rain, snow, biting cold, it's all in the cards for the northeast/east coast this weekend.

GFS Forecast Precipitation/Sea Level Pressure for Saturday evening...the green is rain/the blue is snow...looks like snow will be flying across a good chunk of the northeastern United States and Mid-Atlantic:
Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Early Weekend Outlook
>>>Warming trend takes us into the weekend with highs climbing back into the upper 50s and 60s and overnight lows coming back up into the 30s and 40s.

Long Range Outlook
Long range outlook courtesy of the Climate Prediction Center valid for January 25th though 29th keeps temperatures warmer than normal for a good chunk of the central and western United States with a large portion of the the United States, including Texas, expecting below average rainfall. This is a very interesting outlook given that we are currently experiencing the strongest El Niño on record. El Niño TYPICALLY brings us cooler and wetter than normal conditions.

Colder/Wetter February?
Something keeps telling me that we are in for a colder and wetter February, but only time will tell. I would not be surprised to see some big weather surprises around here as we head into February/March. This is just a hunch I have. Only time will tell.

6-10 Day Temperature Outlook

6-10 Day Rainfall Outlook

Wednesday Afternoon Update

Forecast Discussion:
We are enjoying another beautiful January day across south central Texas. Abundant sunshine combined with the dry air mass in place and a returning southerly flow has allowed temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s across the area. Clouds will begin to increase from the west southwest later this evening and into the overnight hours ahead of an approaching weak upper level disturbance on Thursday. Lows will manage to drop into the 40s area wide tonight under a partly to mostly cloudy sky. The bulk of the upper level energy with Thursday's disturbance will pass to our south where the best moisture will be in place to generate some rain. I'm going to include a slight chance for rain in Austin on Thursday (20%), however, I do believe that the best rainfall chances will stay to our south and east closer to the coast. Highs will still manage to climb into the 60s on Thursday despite the added cloud cover and rain chances. A weak Pacific frontal boundary will move through the area late Thursday into Friday and switch our winds to the west northwest on Friday shaping us up for a beautiful sunny day with afternoon highs in the 60s after morning lows in the 40s.

Weekend Outlook:
A quick-moving upper level disturbance and its associated Canadian Cold Front will move through the area on Saturday morning...behind the front on Saturday winds will really pick up out of the north at 15-25 mph...gusts closer to if not exceeding 30 mph will be possible. Cedar sufferers you have been warned! Sharply colder temperatures will move in behind Saturday's cold front with temperatures dropping into the 30s area wide by Sunday morning with wind chills bottoming out in the 20s. Areas north and west of the Austin Metro Area run the risk of receiving a light freeze Saturday night/Sunday morning. I think temperatures will manage to stay just above freezing here in Austin.

Sunday Morning Forecast Low Temperatures (GFS Forecast Model):



High temperatures on Saturday are going to depend on the timing of the cold frontal passage, if the front slows down highs will manage to rebound into the 60s, however, if the front moves through sooner highs will likely stay down in the 50s.

Saturday's Rain/Snow Chances
There is a slight chance for some light rain showers with Saturday's disturbance, however, the best chances for precipitation look to stay north of the area where areas along the Red River may receive a rain/snow mix on Saturday...some forecast models want to bring some snow as far south as the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex on Saturday, however, that is not a sure thing at this point. Even if some snow flurries occurred NO accumulation is expected at this point in time.

24 Hour Probability of Snow Accumulating greater than or equal to 1 inch by Saturday evening: You can see the chances for accumulating snow are rather low and will stay well north of south central Texas. Areas shaded in lime green on the map below have a 10% chance of receiving 1 inch or less of snow with areas in dark green getting a 20% chance.

Sunny and cool conditions settle into the area Sunday afternoon with afternoon highs expected to rebound into the middle to upper 50s after a chilly start to the day in the 30s. Lows drop back into the 30s once again Sunday night into Monday morning.

Colder Air Arrives For the Weekend

After the widespread fog and embedded areas of drizzle cleared out this morning, our temperatures were able to soar into the upper 60s and lower 70s across the area. Abundant sunshine and a down sloping west southwesterly wind flow allowed for temperatures to rise so dramatically this afternoon. We officially topped out at 73ºF at Camp Mabry (12 degrees above average for this time of year) and 72ºF at the airport. I think we will see one more spring-like day in the upper 60s and lower 70s on Friday before our next disturbance and cold front arrive with a chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday evening/night. 

The showers and storms that are able to develop Friday afternoon/evening will be few and far between, however, the system looks to strengthen as it moves east of central Texas where it will tap into better moisture. Portions of east Texas and western Louisiana are under a MARGINAL RISK for severe thunderstorms Friday evening into Saturday morning. (See image below).

A significantly colder Canadian Air Mass will replace the warm, continental tropical air mass currently in place just in time for the upcoming weekend. Highs on Saturday will only manage the mid 50s across the area on a breezy north wind. With a clear sky overhead and a cold and dry air mass in place, temperatures will easily drop into the 30s area wide Saturday night...low-lying, out-lying areas look to receive a light freeze with a harder freeze possible in the lowest lying creek and river valleys across the Hill Country. We may stay a degree or two above freezing (32ºF) in Austin on Saturday night/Sunday morning, however, it will be close.

Despite a mostly sunny sky on Sunday, highs will only manage the upper 40s to lower 50s Sunday afternoon thanks to the cold and dry air mass in place. Clouds will begin to increase to our west late Sunday ahead of a quick-moving and relatively weak upper air disturbance that looks to bring us increased cloud cover and a SLIGHT chance of some light rain showers on Monday. Another light freeze is possible across the area Sunday night into Monday morning. 

Clouds and rain chances on Monday will keep highs in the 40s across a majority of south central Texas ahead of a warming trend as we head into the middle to end of next week. 

Hope you all have a wonderful weekend!

Dreary, Rainy Wednesday On The Way

Happy New Year! I hope you all had a wonderful holiday season.

Clouds have been increasing from the west all day today and will continue to do so this evening and overnight as our next Pacific storm system approaches the area from the west. As the system crosses the area on Wednesday, widespread cloud cover with embedded areas of fog/drizzle and light rain will develop. The rain on Wednesday will be fairly scattered and light throughout a good majority of the day, but may increase in coverage by late afternoon. That's when I'm expecting the steadiest rains to develop across the area. Even though the rain is forecast to be widespread, that does not mean it is going to be heavy. 

Tonight's Forecast: Increasing clouds with areas of fog and/or drizzle developing late...lows will dip into the 40s...some light rain showers possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning as Gulf moisture continues to stream up and over the cooler air mass here at the surface.

Patchy areas of mist and drizzle already beginning to develop across south central Texas as of 10:45 p.m. Tuesday evening (see radar image below).

Wednesday's Forecast: Light rain likely (especially late afternoon into the evening). Temperatures will only manage to rebound into the 50s Wednesday afternoon thanks to the abundant cloud cover and widespread rain. It's going to be a very dreary sort of day. Rainfall accumulation will range from a trace to 0.10 inches across the Hill Country with slightly higher totals up to 0.25 inches possible along the Interstate 35 corridor with slightly higher totals of up to 0.40 inches possible east of the I-35 corridor towards southeast Texas. Overall this is not going to be a big rain maker for us. 

Wednesday Night: Evening showers become more spotty by late night followed by clearing conditions from west to east Thursday morning as drier westerly winds move into the area behind our next Pacific storm system. Sunny skies and a dry/warm west southwesterly wind flow behind Wednesday's storm system will allow for a nice warm-up on Thursday and Friday before changes arrive just in time for the weekend.

Thursday & Friday: Mostly sunny and much warmer with highs near and above 70°F across the area ahead of a stronger Canadian Cold Front that will really drop temps for the weekend and into early next week. Lows will still be chilly Thursday and Friday mornings in the 40s.

***We may see a widespread freeze across south central Texas early next week. That is not a sure thing at this point in time, however, considerably colder and below average temperatures are coming behind a strong cold front that is set to arrive early Saturday morning***

Saturday: Canadian Cold Front arrives early Saturday morning knocking highs down into the lower to middle 50s on a breezy/gusty north wind...lows dip into the 30s area wide Saturday night ***(areas north and west of Austin may receive a freeze)***

Sunday: Cold start in the 30s gives way to a mostly sunny and chilly afternoon with highs in the 40s...cold air sticks around into early next week with highs in the 40s/50s and lows in the 30s.