Thursday, December 17, 2015

Thursday Evening Update

Forecast Discussion:
Good Thursday evening everybody. Hope you are all doing well. The weekend is just around the corner.

We started the day on the cold side across the area with temperatures in the 20s and 30s. We officially bottomed out at 39°F this morning at Camp Mabry and 33°F out at the airport. Abundant sunshine and dry air in place allowed for a nice warm-up area wide this afternoon. Temperatures managed to rebound nicely into the 60s...official numbers coming in at 68°F at Camp Mabry and 66°F at the airport.

Cooler Friday:
A reinforcing shot of chilly air will move into the area overnight tonight. In response to the cool air mass moving in, highs will only manage the mid to upper 50s across the area on Friday under a sunny blue sky. We will wake up to temperatures in the 30s area wide (some areas north and west of Austin proper will receive a light freeze).

With clear skies and a dry and cool air mass in place, temperatures will be able to cool off in a hurry Friday night once the sun sets. We will wake up to temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area by Saturday morning. Austin proper should stay above the freezing mark (32°F), however, out-lying and especially low-lying areas will have to contend with a light freeze.

Forecast Lows Friday Night/Saturday Morning:


Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Weekend Forecast:
Warming trend quickly returns to the area by Saturday with highs rebounding back into the 60s after a cold start. Southerly winds will quickly return to the area ahead of an approaching upper level disturbance from the west. Temperatures Saturday night will be significantly warmer in the 40s and 50s with increasing clouds. As of right now, Sunday looks to be partly sunny, mild, and breezy with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Christmas Week: It looks to be a warm one folks and potentially wet
Rain chances return to the forecast for early next week...it's too soon to say how much rain we are going to get out of this next system, however, current forecast model guidance is wanting to keep the heaviest precipitation and highest rainfall accumulation east of the I-35 corridor. Temperatures are forecast to be well ABOVE AVERAGE for this time of year with highs in the lower to middle 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. We may cool off a bit just in time for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but that is not a sure thing at this point. Rain may be possible Christmas Day into Christmas weekend, we will just have to wait and see what forecast models decide to do in the coming days.

Long range forecast model guidance is indicating the potential for some colder weather by the end of the month and into the new year, however, we still have plenty of time to watch that.

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (valid Dec. 23-27, 2015)
Forecasting well above average temperatures for the central and eastern United States



Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook (valid Dec. 23-27, 2015)
Forecasting wetter than normal conditions for much of the country with the exception of deep south Texas

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