***Eyes on the Gulf...Flooding Potential***

Forecast Discussion: 

***HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL NOW THROUGH THURSDAY AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO TEXAS FROM THE GULF***

Good Monday morning everybody…I hope you all had a nice and relaxing weekend. The weather is about to get quite a bit more interesting around here as we head into the next several days. I’m keeping my eye on a large area of disturbed weather over the Gulf of Mexico right now, the center of this disturbance is located about 350 miles southeast of Corpus Christi as of 10:50 a.m. Monday morning. A large area of high pressure parked over the southeastern United States will steer this tropical disturbance, possibly soon-to-become tropical depression/storm Bill towards Texas.

Latest Infrared and Visible Satellite Imagery of the tropical system over the open waters of the Gulf:

Visible Satellite Imagery (Monochrome view of the Earth as it is seen from space):

Infrared Satellite Imagery (This looks at cloud top temperatures, the brighter/darker the reds the colder the cloud top temperatures indicating, tall convection, or strong thunderstorms that extend vertically well up into the atmosphere):

For a current look at the IR Satellite Imagery for this system, use this link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/

As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT update, the National Hurricane Center is giving this area of disturbed weather an 80% chance for development into a tropical depression or storm within the next 48 hours…here is the very latest from the National Hurricane Center concerning this tropical system:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

800 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity with the broad area of low pressure in the

south-central Gulf of Mexico has become a little more concentrated

this morning.  A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is just now beginning its

investigation of the system, and will help to determine whether the

low-level circulation has become any better defined since yesterday.

Satellite observations overnight suggest that the low continues to

produce tropical-storm-force winds well to the east and northeast of

the center.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become more favorable

for development while this system moves northwestward across the

western Gulf of Mexico, and a tropical depression or tropical storm

could form at any time before the system reaches the Texas coast

sometime tomorrow.

Interests in and along the northwestern Gulf of Mexico should

monitor the progress of this system.  Regardless of tropical cyclone

formation, tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of

the middle and upper Texas coast and the western Louisiana coast

Monday night and Tuesday.  The system is also likely to bring

heavy rainfall with possible flooding across portions of eastern

Texas and western Louisiana.  For additional information, please see

High Seas Forecasts and products issued by your local National

Weather Service forecast office.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent

* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and

WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Franklin

Click HERE, to go to the National Hurricane Center Website for updates

With all of this in mind, the National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for the majority of south central Texas from Highway 281 east all the way to the coast and the Louisiana Border…various forecast offices issue different flash flood watches, therefore, the expiration times on all of these watches are different. For us here in central Texas the Flash Flood Watch is in effect from today through early Thursday morning…we are likely to begin feeling the impacts of this tropical disturbance, potentially tropical depression/storm Bill, here across south central Texas as early as tomorrow morning with potentially heavy tropical rain bands moving through the area…the weather service is calling for rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches across central Texas from Highway 281 east with localized amounts of 6-8 inches possible. 

Now, let’s look at forecast rainfall accumulation between now and Saturday morning on a state-wide level, the Weather Prediction Center is still focusing the heaviest of the rainfall to occur east of the Austin/San Antonio Metro Areas, however, with that being said, 2-4 inches with localized 6-8 inches is nothing to talk down, especially given our saturated ground…depending on the eventual track and strength of this system, there is the potential for some very serious flooding across portions of central Texas over the coming days…this is going to need to be monitored closely and it is up to each and every one of you to remain weather aware...please take all watches/warnings issued by the weather service seriously and remember, DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, REMEMBER, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!!! 

Here’s a look at the latest computer model forecast guidance of where this system is likely to go…as you can see on the image below, a good majority of the models want to bring this system onto the middle Texas Coast (somewhere in between Houston and Corpus Christi) around midnight tonight…possibly later/earlier depending on the forward speed of this system. THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ITS STRENGTH ARE GOING TO BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE SEE HERE IN CENTRAL TEXAS…IF THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM MOVES TO OUR EAST, WE WILL BE ON THE DRIER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH RAIN, HOWEVER, IF THIS SYSTEM DECIDES TO MOVE DIRECTLY UP I-35 OR WORSE YET, WEST OF I-35, WE ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE SOME SERIOUS FLOODING ISSUES…THESE MODELS ARE NOT SET IN STONE AND ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING HOURS.