***SEVERE WEATHER/FLOODING THREAT***

***As a potent upper level low spinning over southern California now continues to push east northeast across the Four Corners Region into the central Plains over the coming days our chances for showers and thunderstorms here in central Texas will be on the increase***

Water Vapor Loop with 500 mb heights superimposed on top…that spin over southern California is the upper level low

I’m becoming increasingly concerned about our chances for severe weather and the potential for flash flooding across the area over the weekend and into early next week. Multi-day severe weather event continues through the weekend for the central plains and actually looks to peak in intensity on Saturday as all the necessary ingredients begin to come together. The Storm Prediction Center has accordingly placed a good chunk of the southern and central plains in the marginal to slight risk category for severe weather on Saturday with an enhanced risk area from the northern Hill Country north into southwestern Kansas and a moderate risk for portions of central/western Oklahoma extending north into southwestern Kansas.

Saturday’s Severe Weather Outlook Graphic:

This is the official statement from the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma concerning Saturday’s Forecast Severe Weather Outbreak:

A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE

   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY.  INTENSE

   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST

   KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE

  AREAS.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the I-35 corridor and points north and west here in south central Texas under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather on Saturday. Storms that develop will have the potential to become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado (especially for areas north of the Hill Country into west central Texas where they will be under an ENHANCED RISK for severe storms. The greatest risk for tornadoes on Saturday will remain well north of the area across northwest Texas, western Oklahoma and southwestern Kansas. In addition to possibility of hail, high winds, and potential tornadoes, all storms that develop will likely produce very heavy rainfall and frequent, deadly cloud to ground lightning. Given that some areas have received 3-8 inches from storms earlier this week, additional heavy rain in those areas will only aggravate flooding concerns.

Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook:

Again, we are under the gun for potential large hail and damaging winds

Something else to keep in mind if you are going to be outdoors this weekend

Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors!!! If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to get struck by lightning…it does NOT have to be raining at your location for you to be struck by lightning.

***Showers and storms will come in waves across the area between now and Monday ahead of the upper level low and a surface cold front that will be moving into the area Monday evening. Until that front moves through Monday evening, we are going to be under the gun for showers and storms capable of producing very heavy rain and potentially some severe weather as well***

Concerning our flash flood potential, the Weather Prediction Center out of Washington, D.C. issues a forecast rainfall accumulation graphic everyday…their latest seven day rainfall accumulation for much of the southern plains has really caught my attention…between today and next Friday, the WPC is forecasting a widespread 3 to in some cases as much as 10-11 inches of rain to fall across the area…that will definitely need to be monitored closely.

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation from NOW through NEXT FRIDAY:

Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN…do NOT be foolish and drive across a roadway that is flooded, not only are you putting yourself in danger, but you are putting our first responders (police, firefighters, etc…) in danger as well.  

***With all of that mentioned, let’s remain weather aware over the weekend and keep an eye to the sky***