Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather

Good Sunday Morning everybody...a very dynamic weather pattern has already begun to set up across south central Texas as evidenced by the elevated thunderstorm activity ongoing across the area now (elevated meaning that the storms developed on top of the capping inversion over the area now)...a strong upper level trough, or line, of low pressure digging south into northern Mexico has helped to create the development of surface low pressure over extreme southeastern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle...that drop in surface pressure in those areas forces winds to turn southerly across a good majority of the state; those southerly winds ultimately allow Gulf moisture to come flooding back north into Texas...another feature that has my attention is the west Texas dry line, which actually pushed well east of IH-35 corridor yesterday and gave us our hottest day of 2015, so far (I'm sure you all noticed how dry it felt yesterday)...we officially topped out at 93ºF here in Austin yesterday...however, around 7 pm Saturday evening that dry line retrograded back west over the IH-35 corridor and is now located well to the west of I-35 now over west Texas as evidenced by latest surface analysis...the dry line is simply a boundary that sets up during the Spring, Summer, and Fall months in west Texas that separates dry, desert air from northern Mexico and the southwestern U.S. from the humid, Gulf air that presides east of it...when conditions are ripe, as they are looking to become this afternoon, the dry line serves as a focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms...storms that develop along the dry line today as it begins its push back east into central Texas, may quickly become severe producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a tornado or two...with that being said, the latest high resolution forecast models indicate that the majority of the storms this afternoon will form just north of our area, however, I'm NOT going to buy into it just yet...I think we have just as good a chance as north central Texas for some potentially mean storms later this afternoon/evening. There is the potential for several rounds of storms today, morning showers and storms are beginning to move out to the northeast...scattered thunderstorms form this afternoon, some of which are likely to become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a tornado or two...followed by a possible strong line of storms that would move through the area late evening into the early morning hours...with all that being said, today is definitely a day to be weather aware and keep an eye on the sky and the forecast.

Upper Level Trough enhancing severe weather risk today...as it approaches air is forced to rise on a large scale, known as large scale ascent, or lift in the weather world...that rising air is a key to thunderstorm development, hence the risk for severe weather later today given that moisture and instability are both in place and will continue to increase into the afternoon ***Water Vapor Imagery with 500 mb (around 18,500 feet) heights plotted on top*** Check out that spin over Arizona and New Mexico...this is water vapor imagery, you are looking at mid/upper level moisture content in the atmosphere...NOT CLOUDS OR RADAR

***Main points...we are under the gun for possible severe weather this afternoon/evening...a couple of rounds of storms possible with scattered afternoon severe storms giving way to a potential line of storms later this evening***

***STORM THREATS...LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE TODAY/TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL, AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS***

With all of that being said, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed ALL of south central Texas under the ENHANCED RISK AREA for severe weather today: