***WEATHER UPDATE/STORM THREAT***

Forecast Discussion:

Now that early morning showers and thunderstorms have pushed well east of the area…my attention is going to be focused out to the west later this afternoon/evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed south central Texas under the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather today/tonight with an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather for north central and north Texas, including Waco and DFW. The atmosphere was temporarily stabilized after this morning’s activity, however, as of the latest composite mesoanalysis issued by the Storm Prediction Center for the southern plains, it shows that instability has now increased once again across the area…simply, the juice for strong/severe storms has returned, however, at the same time, there is a large area of convective (thunderstorm) inhibition across the western Hill Country and west Texas where a strong cap, or lid, is in place. That lid, simply a layer of warmer air aloft, effectively works to inhibit storm development because it does not allow for air to continue to rise high into the atmosphere. Another inhibiting factor to thunderstorm development this afternoon is the thick cloud cover across the area along and west of the I-35 corridor. If we can get some breaks in that cloud cover out west, which I think is possible, those sun breaks will help to destabilize the surface environment further and would in turn increase our risk for storms. Surface heating is one of the ways in which the cap can be eroded.

High Resolution forecast models continue to show a line of strong, potentially severe storms moving through the area later this evening…now it is just a watch and waiting game. The main threats form the storms that develop this afternoon/evening would be large hail and damaging winds, however, an isolated tornado can never be ruled out.

Current Visible Satellite Imagery over south central Texas: (This is a black and white image of what Texas looks like from space right now):

Today’s Severe Weather Risk Areas:

Major Weather Geek Stuff Here, but this is the SPC’s latest mesoanalysis…see that shaded area of blue west of the Hill Country that is where the strongest cap is in place right now…the red lines represent CAPE values (Convective Available Potential Energy)…anytime CAPE values exceed 1500 joules per kilogram ALONG WITH the other factors necessary for storm development (moisture and lift)…severe weather becomes more likely…CAPE values currently running 1500 to 2500 across the area which tells me that storms, if they are able to get going, they have a good chance of becoming severe. As of the latest forecast model guidance, CAPE values look to continue to go up through the afternoon:

FYI: A thunderstorm is considered severe if it produces thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater, and/or one inch diameter hail or larger, and/or a tornado is present…lightning/heavy rain are not considered in the official decision to issue a severe thunderstorm/tornado warning…because those two things are always found with thunderstorms.

Plus, remember a WATCH means conditions are favorable…be on the lookout…it’s a head’s up

A WARNING means the type of severe weather warning issued is occurring or imminent and is likely to pose a risk to property and life