TGIF everybody! FREEZING COLD start to our Friday in the 10s and 20s has given way to a pleasantly cool and beautiful afternoon with area wide temperatures in the 50s. Abundant sunshine and very dry air in place responsible for the nice warm-up this afternoon. Brand new record low of 21°F set this morning at the airport, shattering the previous record low of 28°F set back in 2011, 2007, and 1966. The temperature dropped to 26°F right in the city of Austin at Camp Mabry missing the record low of 25°F set all the way back in 1906 by only one degree! Keep in mind our "normal" low for this time of year based on a 30 year average (1981-2010) is 44°F at the airport and 49°F at Camp Mabry.
Here's a look at area wide low temperatures from across south central Texas this morning courtesy of the LCRA's Hydromet Network (a majority of these weather stations are located near/in creeks and river valleys...that's where the coldest temperatures are felt on clear, calm nights):
***Nowhere near as cold tonight, however, with the cool, dry air mass still in place and mainly to partly clear skies overhead, temperatures are going to drop into the upper 20s-lower 30s across low-lying/out-lying locations with lower to middle 30s expected in urban areas. Low spots within metro areas will receive a light freeze***
Rain Maker on the way!
An upper level low pressure system currently located over the northern Baja Peninsula will be moving east towards Texas over the coming days and as it does so will work to increase moisture levels at both the surface and aloft. Southwesterly winds aloft will work to pull Pacific moisture into the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere and a returning southeasterly surface wind will work to increase Gulf moisture here at the surface. You will notice the increase in clouds on Saturday. Disturbances embedded within the southwest wind flow aloft and the upper level lift associated with the approaching trough of low pressure will be sufficient in producing widespread rain across the area beginning early Sunday persisting through the day on Monday. Not looking for any strong storms or heavy rainfall, just a nice soaking light rain. Latest computer model guidance suggesting anywhere from 1/4 inch to as much as an inch of rain could fall across the area between Sunday morning and Monday evening...highest totals look to occur along and east of the Balcones Escarpment/Interstate 35 corridor.
Saturday: Cold start in the 30s gives way to a mostly cloudy/partly sunny and cool afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to near 60°F...rain possible by late evening across the Hill Country increasing during the overnight hours
Sunday: Widespread Rain/clouds likely with highs in the 50s, morning lows in the 40s
Monday: Widespread Rain/clouds likely with highs in the 50s, lows in the 40s
Water Vapor Analysis (Mid/Upper Level Moisture, not clouds)
As of 4 p.m. CST...(image courtesy of The University of Arizona)...really cool loop of this image can be accessed HERE)
500 mb Forecast Map: Vorticity (spin in the atmosphere)/Wind Speed/Height
Approximate location of the upper level low at 1 a.m. CDT Monday according to the GFS Forecast Model...a.k.a, yellow blog near Big Bend
Forecast Rainfall Accumulation
Images below courtesy of College of DuPage's Weather Page
NAM Model: 0.50 to 1.25 inches for I-35 corridor
GFS Model: 0.50 to 1 inch of rain for I-35 corridor
***Beyond Monday the weather pattern looks to remain fairly unstable as of the latest forecast guidance that shows a trough, or line of lower pressure remaining parked over Texas much of next week. Translating to more in the way of cloud cover than sun and in turn cooler than normal afternoon temperatures generally in the 60s. Latest long range models do not show a return of Arctic Air over the next seven days***
El Niño (albeit weak) has officially Returned!! Great news for Texas
Yesterday, the Climate Prediction Center indicated that "borderline, weak El Niño conditions" have developed and they issued an El Niño Advisory stating that there is a 50-60% chance that El Niño conditions will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer 2015. You're probably asking yourself, what is El Niño and how does it affect us here in Texas? Very simply, El Niño develops when WARMER THAN NORMAL sea surface temperatures are detected along the Equatorial Pacific...this above average water temperature has historically played a major role in giving us much WETTER and COOLER than normal weather conditions here in Texas. That's great news for us given our widespread agricultural and hydrological drought here in Texas. You can read their update by clicking HERE
Here's a look at the latest Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly released yesterday, March 5th (Image courtesy of NOAA):
***DAYLIGHT SAVINGS (SPRING FORWARD) TIME ARRIVES THIS COMING SUNDAY AT 2 A.M. Don't forget to set your clocks ONE HOUR FORWARD before going to bed SATURDAY NIGHT***
***PLEASE KNOW AND UNDERSTAND THAT THIS FORECAST IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE***
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