Where's the COLD AIR?

It's the last day of November and temperatures are in the middle to upper 70s. If you can believe it we are actually heading for even warmer weather over the next several days. Highs on Saturday, December 1st, will climb into the lower 80s across a good chunk of south central Texas on a breezy southerly wind.

Take a look at the latest NAM High Resolution Temperature Model for Texas. Both the NAM & GFS models put Austin at 83°F for Saturday, 80°F on Sunday, and 81°F on Monday to start off the new week. Keep in mind the average high for this time of year is only 64°F (so you can clearly see we are going to be well above average through the weekend and into next week)

So, where is all of the cold air? It is stuck and building across Canada and Alaska. In fact, temps are at -40°F across portions of the Yukon Territory and Alaska. A piece of that cold air looks to break loose the middle of next week and arrive in Austin next Saturday (December 8th)...of course, the air will be modified by the time it reaches Central Texas. I think this front has the potential to take highs down into the 40s and 50s with overnight lows dropping into the 20s and 30s across the area. Until then, above normal and drier than normal weather will persist.

Latest forecast models are indicating that a line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front next weekend. Right now it is early to say just how much rainfall we are likely to receive, however, the GFS is indicating that between today through December 8th we may receive anywhere from 0.40 to 1 inch of rain. Keep your fingers crossed.

This is a look at forecasted rainfall totals across the lower 48 from today through next Saturday.

Powerful Fall Storm System

Powerful storm system sitting off of the Pacific Northwest Coast is causing quite a mess across the northern half of the west coast of the United States. Forecast models are estimating that anywhere from 10-15 inches of rain could fall across northern California. In the higher elevations across the Sierra Nevada mountains of California, forecast models are estimating 20-50 inches of snow (up to 4 feet) could fall if not more. In fact, more than 200 inches of snow could fall on Mount Shasta in northern California over the next several days. Mt. Shasta rises to an elevation of 14,179 feet above sea level. In addition to the snow at higher elevations, blizzard conditions are possible with winds gusting as high as 60 mph!

No doubt we will be hearing quite a bit about this powerful storm system in the coming days. Right now, northern California looks to be hit hardest, however, Washington and Oregon will get hit hard as well with heavy rain at lower elevations and heavy snow at higher elevations. Areas along the coast and in the mountains will be dealing with high winds in the 40-70 mph range.

As for us here in Central Texas, we will be warming well above average with temps warming into the upper 70s and 80s across the area for the weekend. Our next cool front arrives Tuesday with a very slim chance for a shower along it. Stronger cold front with a slightly better chance for rain looks to arrive around the 8th of December. Keep your fingers crossed. 

COLDEST morning of the season, so far!

We woke up to chilly temps in the 30s area wide this morning. The mercury bottomed out at 37ºF here in Austin at Camp Mabry, however, many low spots across Central Texas received a light freeze. In fact, Austin Bergstrom International Airport dropped to 31ºF...ABIA tends to be much colder than Camp Mabry because it sits in a low spot in the Onion Creek Valley.

Abundant sunshine and dry air in place allowed for a nice warm up this afternoon with temperatures rebounding into the middle and upper 60s area wide. We topped out at 69ºF at both ABIA and Camp Mabry this afternoon.

Tonight's Forecast: Mostly clear skies now will turn partly cloudy as high clouds move across the area from the west...as temperatures approach dew points overnight, patchy areas of fog and drizzle will be possible. Overnight lows will dip into the lower to middle 40s. Temps will rebound into the 70s on Thursday.

When is it going to rain?!

The last time we received measurable rainfall here in Austin was back on October 26th when we received 0.11 inches of rainfall. It has been over a month now since we saw our last rainfall. Things are getting dangerously dry again. In fact, we have not received even a trace of rainfall at Camp Mabry all month long. It has been since 1897 since no measurable rainfall has been reported in the month of November here in Austin! Incredible! The latest drought monitor has placed much of Central Texas in the moderate to severe drought level. Unfortunately, the drought is expected to persist and worsen thanks to a non-existent El Niño; El Niño is famous for bringing wetter and cooler than normal weather conditions to Central Texas during the winter.

Taking a look at the latest forecast models (shown below), our next chance at rainfall looks to arrive next Tuesday (December 4th) with the arrival of our next cold front and storm system which will impact a good chunk of the United States next week. Storms will be possible ahead of the low pressure system from the Canadian border all the way down to the Mexican border. Early forecast models are predicting as much as 0.50 inches of rainfall across south central Texas when all is said and done. Once again, it looks like areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor will have the best shot at receiving rainfall, however, it is still too early to know for sure.