It's the last day of November and temperatures are in the middle to upper 70s. If you can believe it we are actually heading for even warmer weather over the next several days. Highs on Saturday, December 1st, will climb into the lower 80s across a good chunk of south central Texas on a breezy southerly wind.
Take a look at the latest NAM High Resolution Temperature Model for Texas. Both the NAM & GFS models put Austin at 83°F for Saturday, 80°F on Sunday, and 81°F on Monday to start off the new week. Keep in mind the average high for this time of year is only 64°F (so you can clearly see we are going to be well above average through the weekend and into next week)
So, where is all of the cold air? It is stuck and building across Canada and Alaska. In fact, temps are at -40°F across portions of the Yukon Territory and Alaska. A piece of that cold air looks to break loose the middle of next week and arrive in Austin next Saturday (December 8th)...of course, the air will be modified by the time it reaches Central Texas. I think this front has the potential to take highs down into the 40s and 50s with overnight lows dropping into the 20s and 30s across the area. Until then, above normal and drier than normal weather will persist.
Latest forecast models are indicating that a line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front next weekend. Right now it is early to say just how much rainfall we are likely to receive, however, the GFS is indicating that between today through December 8th we may receive anywhere from 0.40 to 1 inch of rain. Keep your fingers crossed.
This is a look at forecasted rainfall totals across the lower 48 from today through next Saturday.
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