Slight Risk of Severe Weather Tuesday

SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the majority of central and north Texas (from Austin north) in the SLIGHT RISK category for potential severe weather on Tuesday. According to the Storm Prediction Center, a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather means scattered severe storms will be possible. The severe storms that are able to develop are typically short-lived and NOT widespread, however, an isolated intense storm cannot be ruled out. 

Areas shaded in yellow are under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather...dark green areas are under a MARGINAL RISK

A deep trough of low pressure (a large dip in the jet stream) to our west will continue to get closer to the area through the day on Tuesday and cross the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Out ahead of this trough, a surface cold front is being pushed east southeast towards central Texas. As this front and the upper level dynamics provided by the trough approach the area, showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom. The showers and thunderstorms we experienced today are occurring as deep moisture continues to be pulled into the state of Texas ahead of the approaching dip in the jet stream. 

According to the Storm Prediction Center, some of the storms that develop on Tuesday will have the potential to become strong and/or possibly severe with damaging winds in excess of 58mph being the greatest risk. In addition to the potential for some damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in a few spots, the threat for heavy rainfall and deadly cloud to ground lightning will occur with any and all storms that develop. Storms will come in waves through the day on Tuesday as disturbances move across the area from southwest to northeast ahead of the advancing trough of low pressure. Storm chances will eventually come to an end with a broken line of showers and storms late Tuesday afternoon and evening as a Pacific cold front pushes across the area from west to east with a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air moving in from the northwest early Wednesday morning setting the stage for a beautiful Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with noticeably more pleasant conditions thanks to a cooler and drier air mass that will infiltrate the region.

Additional rainfall amounts of 1-4 inches will be possible between now and late Tuesday night across central Texas with the heaviest totals being felt along and west of the I-35 corridor. Due to already saturated soils, it will not take a lot of rain for creeks and streams across the area to rise. Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN. As always please remain weather aware and keep an eye to the sky. 

This approaching trough of low pressure that is giving us showers and storms is working in tandem with a ridge of high pressure centered across the east coast to steer Hurricane Michael (now forecast to make landfall as a MAJOR category three hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and gusts near 140 mph) in the Florida panhandle Wednesday afternoon. In addition to the threat of high winds and torrential rainfall, Michael is also expected to bring a significant storm surge. Here’s a look at key messages from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Michael:

As of the 7pm Monday evening advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Michael is a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Below is a look at the 7pm Monday evening official forecast track:

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the

coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a

storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these

areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.

2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida

Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for

life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.

Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the

Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as

Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash

flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into

portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

To stay up to date with all of the latest information regarding Hurricane Michael, please visit the National Hurricane Center's website by clicking HERE