Rain Looks Promising

Forecast Discussion

With high pressure positioned well to the east and northeast of Texas, the sea breeze was able to once again push through the area this afternoon. As it did so, it helped to generate some widely scattered showers and thundershowers. With the loss of daytime heating this evening, any remaining showers will quickly fizzle out. The sea breeze is simply a gust of wind that moves in off of the Gulf of Mexico that tries to equalize temperatures. Because land heats up a lot faster than water, low pressure develops and forces "cooler" air over the Gulf of Mexico to rush in land to takes it place. It acts like a mini cool front this time of year.

Sea Breeze Graphic

Saturday
I'm expecting a near repeat of today's weather on Saturday, morning low clouds will give way to a partly cloudy and warm afternoon in the lower to middle 90s with afternoon/evening showers and storms popping up for some folks as the sea breeze moves through the area.

Father's Day & Beyond
Deep tropical moisture associated with an area of low pressure currently located over the northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula will move northwest towards Texas over the weekend and approach the Texas coast by Father's Day. This approaching area of low pressure (which the National Hurricane Center is giving a 10% chance of tropical development this evening) will drag copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the Lone Star State for the second half of your Father's Day Weekend into the middle of next week. Because we will have so much moisture in place, I expect widespread tropical showers and storms to blossom up each afternoon beginning on Father's Day with even better chances for widespread tropical showers and storms Monday and Tuesday of next week. These showers and storms will be driven by the heat of the day, becoming widespread during the late morning/afternoon and decreasing each day towards sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Forecast models have been a bit wishy-washy in terms of forecast rainfall accumulation, but I'm thinking given the amount of moisture that's going to be in place, we could easily manage 1-3 inches of rain across the area between now and the middle of next week. Because of the tropical connection, showers and storms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. Another benefit of the added clouds and rain will be cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs after Father's Day (depending on when the rains flare up each day), will likely only manage the upper 80s.

Tropical Moisture Location (as of Friday evening)

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation - now through next Friday
Source: Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

At this point in time, flash flooding is not a concern, as most of this rain looks to fall over several days, but it's always important to remember that if you come across a flooded roadway, turn around, don't drown!