Showers & Storms Ahead of Strong Cold Front

Good Afternoon, folks!

Warm and balmy conditions in the 80s right now will shortly be a thing of the past. A strong fall cold front is currently positioned west of the IH-35 corridor along a line from southeast Oklahoma through the Dallas Metroplex and into the northwestern Hill Country. Along and immediately behind the frontal boundary, heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed. To give you an idea of the strength of this cold front, as of 4pm, it is 82°F at Austin’s Camp Mabry and 50°F in Brady, TX (northwestern Hill Country). Farther to the northwest it is 31°F and snowing in Amarillo.

Temperatures across Central Texas as of 4:15 p.m. CDT Thursday (24 Oct 2019)

Weather Setup 

A potent upper level low pressure system moving into the area from the northwest is pushing a strong cold front southeast through the state of Texas this afternoon. Ahead of the front, warm and humid conditions have developed (temperatures in the 70s, 80s and even 90s in south Texas), compared to 30s, 40s, and 50s behind the front.

Severe Risk?

The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of central, north central and south central Texas under the Marginal risk category for potential severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. By no means does this mean that widespread severe weather is going to occur, rather it means that an isolated storm or two has the potential to become briefly severe and produce hail up to the size of quarters along with isolated wind gusts in excess of 58mph.

As the front traverses the area from northwest to southeast through the evening, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase and persist into the wee hours of Friday morning with rain chances coming to an end across the area (from west to east) before sunrise Friday morning.

Marginal Risk for Isolated Severe Storms (dark green shaded area)

Rainfall Accumulation

Forecast rainfall accumulation may exceed as much as 1-2 inches in some locations from this rain event, but it appears that the majority of the area (especially west of Austin) may receive less than 0.50 inches. High resolution forecast models continue to indicate the possibility of greater than an inch of rain falling for portions of the IH-35 corridor and points east. We will take every drop given the severe to extreme drought ongoing across the area.

What can we expect on Friday/Saturday??

Sharply colder and windier weather will push in behind the front for Friday with all of the area experiencing temperatures in the 40s (mid to upper 40s along and east of the Interstate and upper 30s to lower 40s across the Hill Country) with wind chills in the 30s to lower 40s across the majority of the area. Despite clearing skies on Friday, strong north winds will only allow for temperatures to recover in the 50s and lower 60s (south of Austin) on Friday afternoon. Those strong north winds will continue to transport cold air into the area from the north. Everyone drops back down into the 40s Friday night/Saturday morning with temperatures expected to rebound nicely Saturday afternoon with plenty of sunshine into the 60s to lower 70s across the area.

Forecast Wind Chills 9 a.m. Friday Oct 25 2019 (HRRR Model)

This is what it will feel like when you combine air temperature and wind speed

WIND ADVISORY in effect for all of central Texas from 7 p.m. Thursday evening through 4 p.m. Friday afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts in excess of 35-40 mph will be possible across the area behind a strong cold front. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Travel could be difficult for high profile vehicles on east to west oriented roads.