Unseasonably Cold Weather & Rain Chances

Forecast Discussion

A shallow wedge of cold air snuck into the area yesterday evening and has left us with a cloudy, chilly, and dreary day with temperatures ranging from as cold as the 40s to as warm as the lower 60s across the area. Light and patchy areas of rain, mist, and drizzle will continue through the evening before increasing in coverage and intensity overnight and into the day on Wednesday ahead of a strong upper level low pressure system that will send a second, more significant push of colder air into the area Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will occur early in the day with falling temperatures expected into the afternoon and evening thanks to gusty northerly winds.

Tuesday 5pm Temperatures across the state 

(check out the spread between Amarillo and South Texas)

Severe Threat???

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the majority of the area under the MARGINAL RISK category for potential severe weather on Wednesday. What does that mean? It means an isolated storm or two has the potential to briefly become severe and produce damaging winds in excess of 58 mph. The majority of the storms that develop over the next 24-36 hours will be non-severe, but a few may be strong. All storms will pose a risk from brief locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. On average, an additional 0.25 to 1 inch of rain will be possible across the area between now and tomorrow evening with some areas potentially receiving a little more from scattered strong downpours/thunderstorms.

Marginal Risk Area (dark green shading)

Unseasonably Cold Air

Freeze likely for many early Thursday (Halloween) Morning with even more locations dipping to near and below the freezing mark on Friday morning under clear and calm conditions. The average high/low for this time of year in Austin is 78/57. 

What to Expect for the Rest of the Week

You’ll need a jacket and an umbrella as you head out the door on Wednesday…by Wednesday evening, showers and storms will begin to come to an end as drier and much colder air moves into the region on gusty north winds.

Halloween (Thursday) Morning we will wake up to temperatures in the 30s area wide (some spots at the freezing mark north and west of Austin) with wind chills in the 20s to lower 30s area wide. Despite sunny skies on Thursday, temperatures will struggle into the 50s thanks north winds streaming in cold air across the area. Thursday night as winds go calm and skies are clear, temperatures are expected to dip into the upper 20s in the coldest spots to mid-30s in the warmest spots (i.e. downtown Austin). A gradual warming trend takes us into the upcoming Formula One weekend with sunny skies, highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s.

Forecast Wind Chills Thursday morning (NAM Model)