Thunderstorms likely late tonight into Wednesday Morning

Weather Setup

A potent upper level storm system approaching Texas from the west will kick off a round of potential severe thunderstorms across far west Texas late this afternoon and evening that will congeal into a line of showers and thunderstorms that will move east late tonight and into the early morning hours of Wednesday before reaching the I-35 corridor before sunrise Tuesday morning. Storms should clear east of the I-35 corridor after the morning commute. Please plan accordingly for tomorrow morning given the expected thunderstorms. 

Widespread fog, mist, drizzle and low clouds this morning are thanks to a warm front moving north into the area from south Texas. Southeasterly winds have returned to both Austin and San Antonio and dew points and temperatures are rising behind the warm front. This warm front is sensing the approach of tonight’s storm system and is forced to move north. Plenty of sticky Gulf of Mexico Air is working its way north into the area. Despite temperatures in the 60s now, 70s are creeping north and will be here for this afternoon on breezy southeasterly winds. I'm not expecting much in the way of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening. Rain chances will really begin to increase after midnight and rapidly decrease from west to east by midday Wednesday morning. 

Forecast Radar (6 a.m. CDT Wednesday - Hi Res NAM Forecast Model)

Shows a line of strong storms along the I-35 corridor from the Oklahoma/TX Border to the Mexico/TX Border

Forecast Model image courtesy of COD Meteorology

How much rain are we going to see?

Given the progressive nature of the system, flooding does not look to be a concern. Rainfall amounts will generally average 0.25 to 0.50 inches with amounts of 0.75-1 inch not out of the question. 

Will we see any severe weather with these storms?

The best opportunity for severe weather (large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) will remain well west of central Texas across west and far west Texas where the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed those locations in an enhanced risk for severe weather today & tonight. Portions of the Hill Country from roughly the Highway 281 corridor and west have been placed under the slight risk category for severe weather today & tonight and areas along the I-35 corridor have been placed under the marginal risk category for potential severe weather (the lowest risk category). The biggest issue for us along the I-35 corridor is going to be brief heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and potentially some strong, gusty winds along some portions of the line of storms as it moves through the area tomorrow morning. 

What do these severe weather risks mean ???

Image courtesy of the NWS Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office

Tuesday’s Severe Weather Risk Areas

Wednesday’s Severe Weather Risk Areas

What can we expect behind the storms?

Sunshine, dry air and warmer temperatures! Highs behind tomorrow morning’s storms will rebound into the 70s thanks to a breezy west southwesterly wind behind tomorrow morning’s Pacific cold front. Some locations may climb into the lower 80s. Cooler weather will make a return to the area beginning on Thursday and really becoming noticeable Friday into the upcoming weekend and highs drop down into the 50s/60s and overnight lows dip down into the 30s/40s. 

Please remain weather aware and have a way to receive watches/warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Make sure you have a safety plan in place when and if severe weather should strike. It is always a good idea to be situationally aware.