Thursday, October 12, 2017

Warm End to the Week ahead of Sunday Cold Front

Forecast Discussion
After a brief taste of fall air earlier this week, above normal temperatures returned to central Texas Thursday afternoon. Surface high pressure moving to our east today allowed for south southeasterly surface winds to return. That shift in wind direction is bringing increasing moisture to the area this evening and warmer overnight lows. Highs climbed to 88ºF at Camp Mabry Thursday afternoon and 87ºF at Austin Bergstrom International Airport. Highs will remain in the upper 80s/lower 90s both Friday and Saturday under mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper 60s and lower 70s. 

The Forces Driving the Cold Front/Rain???
A developing trough of low pressure, or dip in the jet stream, will strengthen and cross the center of the country this weekend. That dip in the jet stream will push a cold front through the area Sunday morning. A moist air mass out ahead of the front will allow for a chance for scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday morning as the front sweeps through the region from the north. Given the fast-moving nature of this cold front, rainfall accumulation is looking to be rather light. Some locations may receive upwards of 0.25 inches of rain. Some folks may not see any rain as the front crosses their neighborhoods. 

Forecast Model Showing the Dip in the Jet Stream across the center of the country on Saturday

How Much Cooler???
A significantly cooler and drier air mass will filter into the area on Sunday on breezy/gusty north winds sustained between 10-20 mph and gusting between 25-30 mph. Skies will slowly clear from north to south through the day on Sunday before skies go completely clear late Sunday into Monday as temperatures drop into the 50s to lower 60s area wide by early Monday morning. It's going to feel great! This cool air mass will stick around through the middle of next week before warmer temperatures return by the end of next week.

Forecast Lows Next Tuesday October 17th 
40s and 50s area wide



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