Warm, Hazy Tuesday, Cold Front Arrives Wednesday

Forecast Discussion

Monday afternoon highs came in at 82ºF at Camp Mabry and 83ºF at Austin Bergstrom International Airport. Monday's unseasonable warmth is thanks to warm, humid southerly winds off of the Gulf of Mexico and mid-level winds out of the southwest ahead of an approaching upper air disturbance that will be passing north of our area Tuesday into Wednesday morning. That upper air disturbance will likely generate some strong to severe thunderstorms across a good portion of the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday afternoon and evening with the heaviest of the storms expected to move through portions of southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, and northern Arkansas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed those regions in an ENHANCED RISK for severe weather. Large hail, high winds and tornadoes will be possible across those areas on Tuesday.

Tuesday's Severe Weather Outlook

Tuesday in Central Texas
Not expecting any severe weather here in central Texas on Tuesday...morning clouds with patchy areas of fog and drizzle will give way to a partly cloudy and very warm afternoon with temperatures soaring into the 80s area wide. There is a very slight chance for an afternoon shower and/or thunderstorm along and east of the I-35 corridor (especially for areas north and east of Austin). Hazy conditions across the area are thanks to smoke from agricultural and industrial fires burning in Mexico. That smoke is brought into the area on southerly winds.

Refreshing Change Arrives Wednesday
A cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning and stir up some breezy northerly winds behind it for Wednesday afternoon. Those northerly winds will help to pull some significantly drier and cooler air into the state of Texas. Highs on Wednesday will top out in the lower 70s with highs tumbling into the 60s for Thursday and Friday and morning lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area. That will feel refreshing!!!

Summer-esque Warmth

Forecast Discussion

A strong frontal system moving through the center of the country is responsible for the breezy southerly winds today and the summer-like temperatures. As of the latest update, Camp Mabry and Austin Bergstrom International Airport both peaked at 90°F this afternoon. Surprisingly enough, these numbers are not records. Back on this day in 1996, the mercury soared to 94°F at Austin Bergstrom International Airport and 95°F at Camp Mabry. The hottest recorded temperature in Austin in the month of February stands at 101°F set back in the abnormally hot February of 1996. The normal high for this time of year is 67°F. Areas to our southwest along the Texas-Mexico Border are experiencing triple digit temperatures. As of 5 p.m. CST, Laredo International Airport is reporting 100°F.

National Temperature Map as of 5 p.m. CST Thursday

Breezy Winds Today/Friday

Gusty southerly winds have developed across the area in response to a deepening (strengthening) area of surface low pressure currently located in southwest Kansas. Windy and dry conditions in west Texas have kicked up blowing dust in places like El Paso, Midland/Odessa, Lubbock, Abilene, and Wichita Falls. That blowing dust is actually visible from space on the latest scans of visible satellite imagery (see below). Areas on the backside and to the north of the surface low are dealing with below freezing temperatures and snow. 

Radar/Visible Satellite/Surface Analysis as of 5 p.m. CST Thursday

Slightly Cooler Friday, Near Normal Saturday

A surface cold front currently extends west southwest of the surface low in Kansas into New Mexico. This cold front will be arriving in our neck of the woods tomorrow morning. Breezy northwesterly winds behind the front tomorrow will help to drop afternoon highs from the upper 80s/lower 90s we experienced today into the 70s to lower 80s Friday afternoon, which is still well above normal for this time of year. The colder air does not arrive until late Friday night into early Saturday morning when temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 30s/lower 40s across the area. Afternoon highs on Saturday under a mainly sunny sky will be closer to normal for this time of year in the 60s.  

Rain is on the Way

Forecast Discussion

 Coming off the heels of a record warm weekend, a potent upper level low pressure system, currently located over the Baja of California, will be barreling east towards Texas over the next couple of days. As this upper level low approaches the area, our chances for showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase. Lift and instability will be increasing across the area during the day on Monday and peak Tuesday morning when a large area of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to blow through the area from west to east. Severe weather is not expected with this storm system, but some widespread beneficial rains and some sub-severe thunderstorms will be likely.

Position of Upper Level Low (late Sunday evening): 

Monday's Outlook

Rain chances will remain on the low end for much of the day Monday, but increase late Monday night into Tuesday morning as the main upper level energy with this approaching Pacific storm system nears the area. Highs will be cooler across the area Monday afternoon in the 60s & 70s thanks to a northeast wind. Prepare now for a messy Tuesday morning commute.

Tuesday's Outlook

Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will quickly move east by late Tuesday morning/early Wednesday morning as the upper level storm system continues its eastward track. By the time this storm is all said and done, I’m expecting a widespread 1-3 inches of rain across the area. Breezy northwest winds develop behind Tuesday morning’s rain. Those northwest winds will be pulling in a drier and cooler air mass. Highs Tuesday should only manage the 50s and 60s across the area with slowly clearing skies.

Forecast Radar Reflectivity [valid 6 a.m. CST Tuesday]

Wednesday & Beyond

High pressure builds into the area on Wednesday setting the stage for a mostly sunny, dry and beautiful stretch of weather for the remainder of the work week with highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday and lows in the 30s and 40s; 70s return by Friday.

Record February Warmth

Record Warmth

An upper level disturbance, now located well east of the area, responsible for widespread severe weather and tornadoes across Louisiana and Mississippi earlier today, has pushed a dry line through central Texas. Behind the dry line, significantly drier air has moved into the area on westerly surface winds. Abundant sunshine and dry air are allowing for record warmth this afternoon across the area with widespread temperatures in the 80s to near 90°F in a few locations. Other than some thin high cloudiness across the area, conditions are mainly clear.

With a dry air mass in place, temperatures will be cooler across the area tonight dropping into the 50s area wide. 

New Orleans East Tornado: February 7, 2016 as seen from New Orleans East Hospital

For detailed information on the "monster" tornado that moved through New Orleans this morning click HERE. 

Rest of the Week...dry, above normal, warm afternoons, cool nights

Another record warm day expected on Wednesday with temperatures soaring back into the 80s ahead of a weak cold front that will drop afternoon highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area on Thursday under a mostly sunny sky. Even behind Wednesday night’s “cold” front, afternoon highs Thursday will still be above normal for this time of year. Southerly winds quickly return Friday propelling afternoon highs back into the upper 70s…80s (more record warmth) possible Saturday along with warm, balmy overnight lows in the 60s

Wetter, Cooler Pattern Next Week

Rain Chances Increasing for the second half of the upcoming weekend into the beginning of next week as an upper level storm system and a cold front approach and move through the area. Much cooler conditions look to settle into the area Sunday night and stick with us for a good portion of Valentine’s week along with good rain chances. Looks like we may see several days in a row of below normal temperatures with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s/40s. Plenty of time to watch this over the next several days. 

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook: Above normal precipitation expected across Texas