Cooler Weather On The Way!

Forecast Discussion:

One more above average day in store for central Texas before some refreshing changes arrive on Thursday in the form of a cold front and some low end rain chances. We officially climbed to 93°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry missing today’s record high of 94°F set all the way back in 1947 by one degree. The airport missed their record high of 93°F set back in 1993 by one degree as well topping out at 92°F this afternoon. Keep in mind, “normal” for this time of year is closer to 82°F.

Wednesday's Outlook:

One more day of summer-like heat with temperatures in the 90s on your Wednesday before changes arrive. Afternoon highs Wednesday may stay a degree or two “cooler” thanks to the likelihood of morning clouds hanging on a bit longer. Given a more moist southerly flow, morning sprinkles and/or light rain showers will not be out of the question with a lingering chance of an isolated/widely scattered afternoon rain shower or brief thunderstorm along and east of the IH-35 corridor.

Thursday Morning Cold Front:

The much anticipated cold front is set to arrive Thursday morning with a slight chance for a few brief showers. The main story behind the front on Thursday will be the breezy/gusty north winds and the significantly cooler conditions. North winds on Thursday are forecast to be sustained out of the north between 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 25-35 mph possible. Given the passage of the cold front, highs on Thursday will only manage the upper 70s/lower 80s across the area.

Fantastic Weekend:

Much cooler and drier conditions will settle into the area Friday through the upcoming weekend with afternoon highs expected to be in the upper 70s/lower 80s and overnight lows in the 40s/50s. Lower 50s expected right in Austin Saturday morning. It’s going to feel great!

Here’s a look at my latest SEVEN DAY FORECAST:

Summer-like Heat, Cold Front Next Thursday

Today's Discussion:

Much above normal temperatures. After starting the day at a mild 71°F, afternoon sunshine and southerly winds allowed for the high to top out at 91°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry in Austin. Today’s recorded high was not all that far away from today’s record high temperature of 95°F set just last year. Normal for this time of year is closer to 82°F.

October Heat:

Summer-like conditions and temperatures are forecast to persist through Wednesday of next week ahead of the arrival of our next cold front set to move through the area on Thursday. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows near 70°F. Late night/morning clouds will give way to partly cloudy afternoons through the middle of next week.

Rain Chances:

Slight rain chances enter the forecast as early as Wednesday and persist through Thursday afternoon for the region as the cold front approaches and moves through the area. Significant rainfall is not likely with this next cold front.

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation: [over the next 7 days]

Beautiful Formula One Weekend:

Beautiful fall weather (significantly cooler & drier air) will infiltrate the area behind Thursday’s cold frontal passage and set us up for what looks to be an absolutely stellar Formula One Weekend with afternoon highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s & 50s…it is going to feel great! Other than some passing high-level clouds from time to time, skies will be mainly sunny/clear. 

Long Range Outlook: 

Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Temperature/Precipitation Outlook [valid October 21-25, 2016]

Temperature: Below normal temperatures expected for central Texas October 21-25

Precipitation: Below normal precipitation expected for central Texas October 21-25

Eyes on Matthew

Forecast Discussion:
Hello everybody. I hope all of you are having a wonderful weekend thus far. We have been enjoying an absolutely beautiful stretch of fall weather this past week behind two cold fronts that moved through the area this week. The first front arrived on Monday with a second, slightly stronger cold front to follow it on Thursday. Northerly surface winds have allowed for the drier and cooler air mass to remain in place. That will be changing as we head into the new week. Southerly winds will return as early as Monday and allow for muggy Gulf Air to return to the area for Tuesday-Thursday ahead of our next cold front that is forecast to arrive on Friday. Significant rain chances are not in the forecast between now and next weekend. A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out during the coming week (Wednesday-Friday time period).

Tonight's Forecast: Widespread clouds and scattered sprinkles have kept temperatures mainly in the 70s this afternoon with a few locations just now beginning to touch and/or exceed the 80°F mark...clouds will continue to push east overnight setting us up for a mostly clear & cool night with lows dipping into the 50s and lower 60s area wide.

Sunday's Forecast: Mainly sunny & warmer with highs rebounding into the middle to upper 80s, still nice and dry!

Hurricane Matthew:
Latest Numbers on Hurricane Matthew (as of 4pm CDT)
Center Location: 13.5 N | 73.4 W
Maximum Sustained Wind: 150 mph | Gusting to 185 mph
Movement: NW at 5 mph
Minimum Pressure: 940 millibars (mb)

While things are relatively quiet for us here in central Texas, it's a whole lot different for folks in the Caribbean. Category 4 Hurricane Matthew is churning just north of the Colombian Coast and is forecast to track north and maintain its intensity as it approaches Jamaica and Haiti on Monday, followed by Cuba Monday into Tuesday and eventually into the Bahamas Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Matthew has "weakened" slightly from last night when it was upgraded to a category 5 storm, the strongest categorical strength with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. The last category 5 storm to affect the Atlantic Basin was Hurricane Felix back in 2007. Matthew is proving to be a very dynamic and dangerous storm. Matthew has undergone rapid intensification...he was only a category one storm on Thursday and last night he was upgraded to a category 5! Very warm ocean waters and available moisture. For an in depth analysis of Hurricane Matthew click HERE. Folks along the eastern seaboard will need to keep a very close eye on Matthew's forecast track.

Latest Forecast Track from the National Hurricane Center: 
Click HERE to access the National Hurricane Center's Website

Latest Visible Satellite Image: