The heat is on! The hottest temperatures of the summer are on their way to Texas. Ridge of high pressure currently located over the desert southwest will be working its way east over the coming days and park itself over the state of Texas through the middle of next week. Underneath this ridge of high pressure air is forced to sink and in turn compress. As air compresses it heats up and acts as a giant lid or cap on our atmosphere which effectively suppresses any chance for rain, let alone significant cloud cover. Once the high is overhead it also acts as a giant atmospheric force field that steers all storm systems up and over it, leaving us hot and dry. Another factor that will contribute and has already been contributing to hotter temperatures is our decreasing soil moisture which has really begun to dry up, as evidenced by cracking yards, burned grass, and a general yellowing/browning of vegetation across the area.
Forecast Position of Upper Level High (Sunday, August 9th @5pmCDT)
Forecast model guidance has continually been suggesting highs soaring into the 104-108°F range for the weekend into the middle of next week. While models may be overdoing it just a bit, I honestly believe we have the potential to reach 107-109°F at least one day early next week here in Austin especially if long range models remain consistent in bringing a weak frontal boundary down into the area by the middle of next week. In addition to high pressure aloft, abundant sunshine, and dry soils, air masses ahead of cold front are forced to heat up even more than usual thanks to a weather phenomenon known as pre-frontal heating. Regardless of whether or not this front scenario comes to fruition, the hottest temperatures of the summer are on their way. While the entire state of Texas was considered drought free (agriculturally) areas of drought are already beginning to return to portions of the state. The last significant rain we received here in Austin was all the way back on June 30th...this past July was one of our driest on record with only a trace of rainfall reported a few days.
Raw GFS Computer Model Forecast Highs as of this morning's 1200z model run
Bear with me, I know this looks kind of scary, but I highlighted all of the important stuff. First solid yellow line across represents what day it is, second line underneath represents forecast high and low temperatures for that date, for example, THU 06, model is forecasting a low of 79°F and a high of 103°F...the last solid yellow line represents rain chances for the given days, you can see chances remain below 10% through the forecast period...and lastly, remember, these are not set in stone, these numbers represent what ONE forecast model believes temperatures are going to look like over the next seven days...it is up to meteorologists to decipher this model data and put it into realistic terms)
The numbers circled in red represent the 30 day average, or normal high temps for this time of year...as you can see we are going to be running well above those numbers.
Remember, heat is the #1 weather-related killer...it is important to stay hydrated and wear protective clothing, sunscreen, etc... if you will be spending time outdoors. The best thing to drink to stay hydrated is water as alcohol and sodas, etc... will effectively dehydrate your body.
El Niño Update:
While we are in for a heat wave, El Niño continues to strengthen across the equatorial Pacific...remember, El Niño conditions develop in response to WARMER THAN NORMAL sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. This warming keeps the subtropical jet stream, which typically resides south of the U.S. during a "normal" winter to move north over the southern United States...this jet stream pumps more Pacific moisture and storm systems our way during the fall/winter months. With the forecast increase in moisture and storm systems this fall/winter, heavy rainfall events and flooding are going to become a concern for us if forecasts verify. El Niño's are known to produce cooler and wetter than normal conditions for us here in the southern U.S. during the fall/winter months. Hopefully this El Niño pattern will bring some significant drought relief to folks out west in California, unfortunately with that relief, the threat of mudslides and flooding will become a major issue.
Latest Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (How much above/below average) ocean temps are running across the Pacific...as you can see, and as I highlighted, the well above average water temps across the equatorial Pacific indicating that El Niño is in place and likely here to stay through the winter months.
No comments:
Post a Comment