***As a potent upper level
low spinning over southern California now continues to push east northeast
across the Four Corners Region into the central Plains over the coming days our
chances for showers and thunderstorms here in central Texas will be on the
increase***
Water Vapor Loop with
500 mb heights superimposed on top…that spin over southern California is the
upper level low
I’m becoming increasingly
concerned about our chances for severe weather and the potential for flash
flooding across the area over the weekend and into early next week. Multi-day
severe weather event continues through the weekend for the central plains and
actually looks to peak in intensity on Saturday as all the necessary
ingredients begin to come together. The Storm Prediction Center has accordingly
placed a good chunk of the southern and central plains in the marginal to
slight risk category for severe weather on Saturday with an enhanced risk area
from the northern Hill Country north into southwestern Kansas and a moderate
risk for portions of central/western Oklahoma extending north into southwestern
Kansas.
Saturday’s Severe Weather
Outlook Graphic:
This is the official
statement from the Storm Prediction Center in Oklahoma concerning Saturday’s
Forecast Severe Weather Outbreak:
A
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS ON SATURDAY. INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TORNADOES...VERY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS.
The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) has placed the I-35 corridor and points north and west here in south
central Texas under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather on Saturday.
Storms that develop will have the potential to become severe with large hail,
damaging winds, and possibly a tornado (especially for areas north of the Hill
Country into west central Texas where they will be under an ENHANCED RISK for
severe storms. The greatest risk for tornadoes on Saturday will remain well
north of the area across northwest Texas, western Oklahoma and southwestern
Kansas. In addition to possibility of hail, high winds, and potential
tornadoes, all storms that develop will likely produce very heavy rainfall and
frequent, deadly cloud to ground lightning. Given that some areas have received
3-8 inches from storms earlier this week, additional heavy rain in those areas
will only aggravate flooding concerns.
Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook:
Again, we are under the gun for potential large hail and damaging winds
Something else to keep in
mind if you are going to be outdoors this weekend
Remember, when thunder roars, go
indoors!!! If you can hear thunder, you are close enough to get struck
by lightning…it does NOT have to be raining at your location for you to be
struck by lightning.
***Showers and storms will
come in waves across the area between now and Monday ahead of the upper level
low and a surface cold front that will be moving into the area Monday evening.
Until that front moves through Monday evening, we are going to be under the gun
for showers and storms capable of producing very heavy rain and potentially
some severe weather as well***
Concerning our flash flood
potential, the Weather Prediction Center out of Washington, D.C. issues a
forecast rainfall accumulation graphic everyday…their latest seven day rainfall
accumulation for much of the southern plains has really caught my
attention…between today and next Friday, the WPC is forecasting a widespread 3
to in some cases as much as 10-11 inches of rain to fall across the area…that
will definitely need to be monitored closely.
Forecast Rainfall Accumulation from NOW through NEXT FRIDAY:
Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN
AROUND, DON’T DROWN…do NOT be foolish and drive across a roadway that is
flooded, not only are you putting yourself in danger, but you are putting our
first responders (police, firefighters, etc…) in danger as well.
***With all of that mentioned,
let’s remain weather aware over the weekend and keep an eye to the sky***
