Hello everybody. Strong southerly winds today were feeding a surface area of low pressure across Colorado and the Texas Panhandle. Winds gusted as high as 35 mph here in the city at Camp Mabry and 37 mph along the runways at Austin Bergstrom International Airport. Highs today climbed well into the middle and upper 70s across central Texas. We were running some 14-16 degrees above normal.
I'm monitoring a strong upper level low pressure system across southern California right now that will quickly approach Texas during the day on Friday and pass overhead by Saturday. Ahead of the area of low pressure Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to pour into Texas on breezy/gusty southerly winds. As that storm system and its attendant frontal boundary approach the area I'm expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop as early as Saturday morning and persist through Saturday morning before skies rapidly clear on gusty northerly winds as much drier and cooler air infiltrates the region.
Upper Level Storm System:
Forecast Radar across the U.S. on Saturday:
The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and east of I-35 under the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather. The main threats from the storms that develop will be strong winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall totals will likely be less than an inch across the area. The greatest threat for severe weather with this system will be east of Austin.
Severe Weather Risk Map:
Cool, dry air will filter into the state behind the storm system and set us up for a windy, sunny, and much cooler Sunday with highs in the 50s. Lows will drop into the 30s area wide Sunday night and highs will top out in the 50s on Monday under a sunny sky. Light freezes possible Monday and Tuesday nights. Christmas Day looks mostly sunny and cool with a high in the lower 60s.
Forecast Highs across the U.S. on Christmas Day:
Hello everybody. I hope you all enjoyed a wonderful Thanksgiving with friends and family. Temperatures have managed to warm back into the 70s across a good portion of central Texas this afternoon thanks to southwesterly winds at the surface. Temperatures will only continue to climb as we get into Monday and Tuesday ahead of a series of cold fronts that will be heading our way.
After a cool start in the 50s Monday morning highs will easily climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area thanks to warm westerly winds blowing down to the surface. That scenario will repeat itself again on Tuesday, except it may even get warmer with highs in the lower 80s being more common. An increase in clouds and moisture will keep highs in the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon ahead of the first in a series of cold fronts that will arrive late Wednesday night and drop highs on Thursday into the 50s.
A look at what the GFS Model believes temperatures will look like Thursday afternoon:
Thursday night a second stronger push of Arctic Air will drop temps into the 30s and 40s Thursday night with highs staying in the 40s all day Friday before plummeting even farther late Friday afternoon as the main surge of Arctic Air infiltrates the region. This surge of Arctic Air will send temperatures into the 20s and lower 30s by Saturday Morning with wind chills easily falling into the teens!!!
Forecast Temperatures Saturday Morning:
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will likely stay in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s; lows will drop below the freezing mark both Saturday and Sunday nights under a cloudy sky. This is where things could get tricky. There is a chance for wintry precipitation beginning as early as Friday night and persisting through the weekend. If temperatures at the surface are at 32°F or colder rain falling would turn into freezing rain. The chance for precipitation over the weekend is at 30-40%.
Wintry Precipitation (Freezing Rain/Sleet) Possible as early as Friday Evening according to the GFS Model:
The ECMWF Model has the cold air holding off until late Thursday. It is forecasting a cold weekend as well with temps in the 30s and 40s with freezes at night, however, the ECMWF shows a quick warm up into the 50s and 60s on Monday ahead of what would be a second, even stronger front that would arrive late Monday (of next week) and send temperatures into the 30s for highs Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with lows in the 20s!!!
***Keep in mind this forecast is subject to change and specifics still need to be worked out. Get ready for some much colder weather after a brief warmup early this week***
