Severe Weather Threat Increasing Tomorrow

Good Afternoon everybody! As of 2 p.m. we are up to 92°F here in Austin with plenty of haze and humidity in the air as well. Breezy, moist southerly winds off of the Gulf of Mexico will be fueling large tornadic thunderstorms across Oklahoma, extreme north Texas, northwestern Arkansas, and southern Missouri later this afternoon. Taking a look a the latest visible satellite imagery, storms are already beginning to fire along a stationary frontal boundary across Oklahoma and extreme north Texas. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center is currently monitoring areas from the Red River south into extreme northern portions of central Texas for the issuance of a possible SEVERE STORM WATCH or TORNADO WATCH within the coming hours. 

Intense heat and moisture combined with a slow moving southward moving frontal boundary will increase our chances for severe storms here in Central Texas for Tuesday. The main threats from the storms that develop Tuesday afternoon will be very large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat on Tuesday looks to be across northeastern portions of Texas, however, a tornado can never be ruled out when severe thunderstorms are in the forecast. The chance for storms tomorrow is at 50-60% for central Texas. Highs will climb well into the 90s Tuesday afternoon and that intense heat combined with lift produced from the boundary will work together to allow for explosive thunderstorm development. The Storm Prediction Center says there is at least a 30% chance for every storm that develops to produce some sort of severe weather. Hail up to the size of baseballs is not out of the question!

Storm Prediction Center's Outlook for Tuesday:

Storm Prediction Center's Probabilistic Outlook for Tuesday:

Future Simulated Radar for Texas tomorrow evening...strong/severe storms will be stretching from northeast Texas all the way back down into central Texas:

The atmosphere will be extremely unstable across much of Texas tomorrow as evidenced by EXTREMELY HIGH cape values...cape is a measure of how quickly the air is rising...the higher the cape the worse the storm...CAPE VALUES will be anywhere from 3000 to 5000 joules/kilogram across the state tomorrow:

By the way, if you are wondering why it has been so hazy lately it is due to the large agricultural fires burning across Mexico...farmers burn sugar cane this time of year in southern Mexico and strong southerly winds carry that smoke into Texas.