Storms are on the way!!!

Good evening everybody. It has been a partly cloudy, warm, and humid day with highs in the 80s area wide. Temps climbed well into the middle 80s here in the Austin Metro Area. The airport officially topped out at 85°F this afternoon. Storms have fired up across the mountains of northern Mexico this afternoon as well as the Texas Panhandle where a strong tornado touched down southeast of Silverton, TX...no reports of damage or injuries as it touched down in a mainly rural location. 

Storms from Space

Northern Mexico:

Texas Panhandle: (Storms formed along the dry line and a stationary frontal boundary draped across the Panhandle...storms also produced extreme amounts of hail as well as hail well over the size of golf balls in spots

Hail Photo from Panhandle:

Tornado SE of Silverton: Photo captured by David Drummond

Tonight's forecast: Increasing clouds, mild and humid with lows only dropping into the 60s...there is a slight chance for a shower or weak thundershower overnight.

As a low pressure system and its attendant strong cold front push across the state of Texas tomorrow (Tuesday) from west to east, warm and moist atmosphere ahead of the two will allow for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop across west Texas late Tuesday afternoon/evening. Those storms in west Texas will form into a complex of storms that will push through central Texas late Tuesday/early Wednesday. Computer models are suggesting a widespread 0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall is possible. 

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed areas along and west of the I-35 corridor under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather tomorrow. Honestly, the worst of the weather should stay well to the west of the Austin Area, however, we should not let our guard down for some strong gusty winds and some large hail. The complex of storms looks to push through the Austin Metro Area after midnight and persist through the overnight hours before settling down early Wednesday morning. 

The storms will be pushed east with a cold front, therefore, much cooler on Wednesday behind the front with highs in the 50s and 60s expected under a mainly cloudy sky. 

Let's break down the forecasted radar hour by hour: Austin represented by the ORANGE CIRCLE

5 p.m. Tuesday afternoon (Strong storms possible across SE Texas, however, the thing to watch is the storms developing across west Texas...those storms will likely go severe with hail and high winds):

9 p.m. Tuesday evening (Strong to severe storms organizing into a complex north and west of central Texas...circled in red):

12 a.m. Wednesday morning: Strong line of storms pushing through the Hill Country with strong wind, heavy rain, lightning, and possible small to medium sized hail

4 a.m. Wednesday morning: Leading edge of storms has pushed well east of the I-35 corridor with residual shower and thunderstorm activity continuing across the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor

Temperatures across the state at 6 p.m. Tuesday evening (you can clearly see the location of the front with the stark difference in color and temperature between the Panhandle in the 30s and 40s with central and south Texas in the 80s and 90s!

High Resolution GFS Model is forecasting a widespread 1-1.5 inches of rainfall to accumulate across central Texas between now and late Wednesday...several inches possible between Austin and Dallas (southwest of Dallas/Fort Worth) where up to 4 inches of rainfall is possible according to this model run:

Cooler air will filter into the region behind the storms on Wednesday with highs in the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday...cool mornings in the 40s and 50s through Friday night before temps rebound into the 80s for the weekend and into next week.