Tonight's Forecast: Mostly clear and chilly with lows in the 40s area wide; NE winds 5-10 mph.
Friday's Forecast: Mostly sunny and BEAUTIFUL with a high in the middle 70s; calm wind becoming SSE at 5-10 mph in the afternoon. Temps fall into the 50s by Saturday morning.
Saturday's Forecast: Partly cloudy, warm, and gusty with a high near or just above 80°F...winds will be out of the south at 10-15 mph gusting 25-30 mph at times. Temps fall into the 50s to near 60°F by Sunday morning.
Sunday's Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy, warm, and gusty with a high near 82°F...winds will be out of the south at 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph at times. Temps fall into the 60s by Monday morning.
Monday's Forecast: AM clouds and drizzle will give way to a partly sunny and warm afternoon with highs in the lower to middle 80s; wind will be breezy out of the south at 10-20 mph. Temps fall into the 60s to near 70°F by Tuesday morning. Severe storms will blossom north and west of central Texas in northwest Texas and Oklahoma.
Tuesday: AM clouds and drizzle will give way to a partly sunny, warm, and humid afternoon with highs soaring well into the middle 80s...there is a good chance for STRONG or SEVERE thunderstorms late in the afternoon (west of Austin) and in the evening/late night hours (along and east of 35)...storms that develop will be capable of producing very large hail, destructive winds, torrential downpours, and plenty of cloud to ground lightning. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
TUESDAY'S SEVERE WEATHER SET-UP
The Jet Stream (river of fast-moving air that moves storm systems) will take a big dip south into northern Mexico. That big dip in the jet stream is known as a trough of low pressure...think of a trough as an elongated area of low atmospheric pressure. Remember, low pressure provides lift (rising motion in the atmosphere). Lift is what generates showers and storms as moisture is lifted from the surface to higher altitudes aloft it condenses into clouds to produce showers and thunderstorms. Lift from the trough, a strong dry line, and an approaching cold front will all work together to allow for a good chance of showers and storms across the area Tuesday afternoon through early Wednesday morning.
With this said, the air over north central and south central Texas will be very unstable, meaning that air forced upward from the surface will move very quickly in turn allowing for explosive storm development. There will be plenty of cold air sitting above the area with warm air below at the surface (where we are).
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) is a measure of the amount of instability in the atmosphere. The GFS Model is forecasting CAPE values to be well above 2 to 3,000 across central Texas which tells me that storms that develop are likely to quickly turn severe with large hail and destructive winds.
FORECASTED CAPE VALUES:
Here's a look at what winds will be doing at around 18,000 above us next Tuesday:
Storms will initially fire along the dry line west of central Texas mid afternoon and into the evening hours. Those individual storms that develop will merge into a line of storms and push east towards the Austin area by Tuesday evening.
DRY LINE:
The only thing that may hinder thunderstorm development would be a strong CAP, or LID on the atmosphere around 5-8,000 feet over central Texas. The CAP is basically a layer or hot, dry air blown on top of central Texas off of the high plateaus and deserts of northern Mexico...to learn more about the cap and how it works to inhibit thunderstorm development check my blog post on it at this link:
http://michaelsweatherblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/the-cap.html
Cooler and drier air will push into the region behind the storms for Wednesday and Thursday of next week! Another 0.25 inches to 1 inch of rainfall is possible with this next round of storms.
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