Michael's Weather Blog: Storm Chances, Easter, and a BIG Cold Front!

Hello everybody! Let's jump right into it. Moist, southerly flow has definitely returned to the area as evidenced by the BIG increase in humidity, cloud cover, and warmer temperatures. Just think, we had a near area wide freeze Monday night/Tuesday morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed eastern portions of the Texas Panhandle, portions of northwest Texas, and western Oklahoma under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather this afternoon. Disturbances moving from west to east at about 18,000 feet will interact with warm surface temps, plentiful amounts of moisture, and the infamous dry line to produce a decent shot for strong/severe storms late this afternoon/evening across those areas. The storms would be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. Latest high resolution forecast models keep those storms away from central Texas tonight, however, they show that there is the possibility for those storms that develop across the Panhandle and western Oklahoma to organize into a squall line (line of storms) and possibly blow through the DFW Metroplex early Saturday morning (before sunrise) if they are able to maintain their strength.

SLIGHT RISK = YELLOW/GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS = GREEN

FORECAST RADAR AT 10 P.M. THIS EVENING

FORECAST RADAR AT 3 A.M. SATURDAY MORNING

As for us here in central Texas, it is going to be a long stretch of mostly cloudy, warm, and humid days. Highs will climb into the 80s Saturday-Monday ahead of a strong cold front that will blast through the area late Monday/early Tuesday...there is a 20-40% chance for showers and storms Saturday-Monday across central Texas...strongest storms would be experienced across the western Hill Country (storms that develop across west Texas along the dry line will have the potential to push as far east as the Hill Country)...it is not completely out of the question that if an organized line of showers and storms forms out west, it may make it as far east as the I-35 corridor. Slightly better chance for storms late Monday as that strong front I mentioned sweeps through the area with gusty northerly winds sustained near 20 mph developing behind the front as highs drop some 25-30ºF across the area from Monday afternoon to Tuesday afternoon. Temps will climb well into the 80s Monday with highs only expected to make the 50s to possibly 60 Tuesday afternoon under a cloudy and showery sky. This front will not give us a freeze as widespread heavy cloud cover will keep ALL of central Texas safely above freezing.

BIG FRONT: (How's this for a temperature difference???) Source of the cold air is far northern Canada!

Laredo will be close to 100ºF on Monday while Amarillo will be below freezing! Waco will be at 85ºF while Dallas will be in the 40s by late Monday afternoon! Incredible front! Looks like winter is playing some tricks on spring this year)

3 p.m. Monday:

6 p.m. Monday:

Easter Forecast:

Cloudy, drizzly AM in the 60s will give way to a partly sunny & WARM afternoon with highs in the 80s; there is a 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

Keep your fingers crossed that we receive some rainfall because the latest soil moisture models are quite depressing. Much of the state of Texas has less than 10% moisture in the soil...that's DRY! As of the latest drought monitor released yesterday, 98% of the state of Texas is in drought...central Texas is in the severe to extreme drought categories.

Soil Moisture Percentages:

Texas: