Rain???

Rain chances look to return to central Texas for this coming weekend and may begin as early as Friday night, peaking on Sunday and then decreasing for the start of next week. 

I'm already watching a strengthening low pressure system just off of the coast of the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This is the system that would move across the southern plains and Texas and bring us our rain chances.

Rain Chances:

Friday Night: 20% chance for light showers

Saturday: 20% (Rain chances increasing across the Hill Country late in the day)

Sunday: 50% chance for a line of showers/thunderstorms to blow through

Latest Rainfall Projection for central Texas between now and next Sunday evening look to be anywhere from 0.25 to 0.50 inches. We can use every drop. According to our latest drought monitor all of central Texas is experiencing moderate to severe drought conditions.

ECMWF Model showing storm system approaching us:

GFS Model showing storm system approaching us:

GFS Model shows a line of showers and storms developing across west Texas late Saturday and moving through central Texas during the early-morning hours Sunday: 

The greatest risk for possible severe storms (large hail, damaging winds) will be across west Texas on Saturday:

Line of storms would not be able to develop much farther south than San Antonio due to a strong capping inversion over south Texas on Sunday...southwesterly winds at 5,000 feet aloft blowing into the approaching low pressure system pulls dry, warm air off of the Mexican Plateau and pushes it over Texas. This acts as a lid on the atmosphere because you need warm air rising into cool air aloft for rain to develop. In the case of the cap, warm air rises into cool air, however, it hits a layer of warm, dry air (the cap) which inhibits rain development.

Forecasted Cap: (Blues, pink, and gray indicate strong cap, or lid)

It will be interesting to see how strong the cap will be over the area by the weekend. If there is enough lift in the atmosphere (rising air) associated with the low pressure system and enough forcing at the surface along a pacific frontal boundary, the cap will be able to weaken and allow for showers and thunderstorms to blossom.