Stormy Saturday

Hello everybody. Strong southerly winds today were feeding a surface area of low pressure across Colorado and the Texas Panhandle. Winds gusted as high as 35 mph here in the city at Camp Mabry and 37 mph along the runways at Austin Bergstrom International Airport. Highs today climbed well into the middle and upper 70s across central Texas. We were running some 14-16 degrees above normal.

I'm monitoring a strong upper level low pressure system across southern California right now that will quickly approach Texas during the day on Friday and pass overhead by Saturday. Ahead of the area of low pressure Gulf of Mexico moisture will continue to pour into Texas on breezy/gusty southerly winds. As that storm system and its attendant frontal boundary approach the area I'm expecting showers and thunderstorms to develop as early as Saturday morning and persist through Saturday morning before skies rapidly clear on gusty northerly winds as much drier and cooler air infiltrates the region.

Upper Level Storm System:

 
Forecast Radar across the U.S. on Saturday:

The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and east of I-35 under the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather. The main threats from the storms that develop will be strong winds, hail, brief heavy rainfall, and cloud to ground lightning. Rainfall totals will likely be less than an inch across the area. The greatest threat for severe weather with this system will be east of Austin.

Severe Weather Risk Map:

Cool, dry air will filter into the state behind the storm system and set us up for a windy, sunny, and much cooler Sunday with highs in the 50s. Lows will drop into the 30s area wide Sunday night and highs will top out in the 50s on Monday under a sunny sky. Light freezes possible Monday and Tuesday nights. Christmas Day looks mostly sunny and cool with a high in the lower 60s.

Forecast Highs across the U.S. on Christmas Day:

 

 

WARM then COLD!!!

Hello everybody. I hope you all enjoyed a wonderful Thanksgiving with friends and family. Temperatures have managed to warm back into the 70s across a good portion of central Texas this afternoon thanks to southwesterly winds at the surface. Temperatures will only continue to climb as we get into Monday and Tuesday ahead of a series of cold fronts that will be heading our way. 

After a cool start in the 50s Monday morning highs will easily climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the area thanks to warm westerly winds blowing down to the surface. That scenario will repeat itself again on Tuesday, except it may even get warmer with highs in the lower 80s being more common.  An increase in clouds and moisture will keep highs in the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon ahead of the first in a series of cold fronts that will arrive late Wednesday night and drop highs on Thursday into the 50s.

A look at what the GFS Model believes temperatures will look like Thursday afternoon:

Thursday night a second stronger push of Arctic Air will drop temps into the 30s and 40s Thursday night with highs staying in the 40s all day Friday before plummeting even farther late Friday afternoon as the main surge of Arctic Air infiltrates the region. This surge of Arctic Air will send temperatures into the 20s and lower 30s by Saturday Morning with wind chills easily falling into the teens!!!

Forecast Temperatures Saturday Morning:

Highs on Saturday and Sunday will likely stay in the 30s with wind chills in the 20s; lows will drop below the freezing mark both Saturday and Sunday nights under a cloudy sky. This is where things could get tricky. There is a chance for wintry precipitation beginning as early as Friday night and persisting through the weekend. If temperatures at the surface are at 32°F or colder rain falling would turn into freezing rain. The chance for precipitation over the weekend is at 30-40%.

Wintry Precipitation (Freezing Rain/Sleet) Possible as early as Friday Evening according to the GFS Model:

The ECMWF Model has the cold air holding off until late Thursday. It is forecasting a cold weekend as well with temps in the 30s and 40s with freezes at night, however, the ECMWF shows a quick warm up into the 50s and 60s on Monday ahead of what would be a second, even stronger front that would arrive late Monday (of next week) and send temperatures into the 30s for highs Tuesday and Wednesday of next week with lows in the 20s!!!

***Keep in mind this forecast is subject to change and specifics still need to be worked out. Get ready for some much colder weather after a brief warmup early this week***

COLD WEATHER is on the way!

It is hard to think about cold weather after yesterday's record breaking heat at both Camp Mabry and Austin Bergstrom. We officially topped out at 90°F at Camp Mabry which is actually 19 degrees above normal for this time of year. The old record was 86°F set back in 1938.

The majority of this week looks to be rather mild with slight rain chances entering the forecast as soon as Wednesday as southerly flow off of the Gulf of Mexico increases ahead of our next strong cold front that looks to arrive Friday afternoon. The "coolest" day between now and Friday looks to be Tuesday with many locations topping out in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Temperatures will start off in the 50s both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings before climbing into the 60s for Thursday and Friday mornings. Afternoon highs on Thursday will approach the 80 degree mark in spots. 

Check out the FRIGID Air north of the Canadian Border waiting to pour south into the lower 48: Temperatures are well below zero across a large portion of the Canada and Alaska. The coldest temperature I could find was -35°F in the Yukon Territory.

The ECMWF (European Forecast Model) wants to bring the Arctic Front into central Texas around 6 p.m. Friday evening. A line of fast moving showers and thunderstorms would be possible along the front. Behind the front temperatures would rapidly fall from the 70s into the 40s on a powerful north wind. This particular model has us waking up to temps in the 30s area wide with wind chills in the 20s on Saturday morning. Areas north and west may receive a freeze. Highs on Saturday would struggle to get out of the 40s. Lows would fall back into the lower to middle 30s Saturday night with highs struggling back into the 40s on Sunday.

The GFS (American Forecast Model) wants to bring the Arctic Front into central Texas closer late Friday evening into the early morning hours of Saturday. The GFS is forecasting temps to stay in the 40s all day Saturday with lows falling to near freezing across all of central Texas Saturday night. Highs on Sunday would struggle to get into the 40s under a cloudy sky. This cold air will push well south into Mexico.

Too early to say if wintry precipitation is going to be an issue for us here in Central Texas. Portions of north and west Texas may receive some snow. However, as of right now it does not look likely. What looks more likely is a cold rain to develop behind the front. The GFS Model is showing temperatures to be well above freezing by the time the rain would start falling. It is definitely something to keep an eye on. Of course this forecast is subject to change over the next several days.

Between now and next Monday the Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a good 1-1.5 inches of rain to fall in Central Texas: We will take it!!

***Just know that significantly colder weather is due to arrive this weekend***

Thunderstorms on the way!

Good Afternoon Everybody! I just wanted to take a moment to write a brief blog on the heavy rainfall event that is likely to take shape this evening and through the overnight hours.

All the ingredients are coming together for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms to move through the region beginning this evening and persisting through Thursday morning. Plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture, combined with upper level moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond out in the Pacific and an approaching storm system and its attendant cold front will all work together to give us a 100% chance for storms beginning this evening and persisting through Thursday morning. The heaviest activity, according to the latest run of the HRRR Model (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) will arrive around, if not before, midnight for the far western Hill Country. The model is showing a strong, possibly severe, line of storms pushing into the region. Storms that develop will have the potential to produce strong damaging winds and hail. That line of storms will move from west to east through the overnight hours and looks to arrive along the I-35 corridor around 3 a.m. Keep in mind, things may slow down or speed up. 

Forecasted Radar for 1 a.m. (Strong, possibly severe, line of storms pushing through the Hill Country):

Given our risk for severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of north, central, east, and south Texas under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather this evening and overnight. Areas shaded in yellow are under the Slight Risk Category.

In addition, and of even greater concern, is the risk of flash flooding. The tropical air mass in place will assure that the storms will drop copious amounts of rainfall quickly. I'm expecting a good 1-3 inches of rain to fall area wide with some spots picking up as much as 4-5 inches of rain. 

The good news is that once the line of storms pushes through a clearing trend will take place for Thursday (Halloween) afternoon. Cooler and drier weather will arrive behind the front by Friday morning with lows expected to fall into the 40s and 50s. Beautiful weekend shaping up with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night under clear skies; mid 40s expected here in Austin. Out-lying areas will dip into the lower 40s. Clouds increase on Sunday ahead of our next storm system that will bring rain chances back to central Texas for the beginning of next week ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive next Wednesday. That front will have the potential to drop highs into the 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s!!! 

Weekend Rain

TGIF Everybody! 

Gulf of Mexico moisture is beginning to stream back into central Texas. The area of high pressure that has been over the area for the past several days has shifted to our east. The clockwise flow around high pressure has allowed for southeasterly winds to return. Dew points that were in the 40's area wide yesterday are now approaching the 60 degree mark. As temperatures fall into the upper 50's and 60's area wide overnight they will meet up with the dew point temperature. When the temperature and dew point meet the humidity is at 100%. With this being mentioned, expect low clouds, areas of fog and drizzle, and spotty light rain showers to develop tonight and persist through the first half of Saturday. Saturday afternoon skies should turn partly sunny allowing for highs to make it into the upper 70's to near 80°F in spots. Spotty light rain showers possible throughout the day. 

As the main disturbance (upper level storm system) approaches the area late Saturday and into the early morning hours of Sunday, is when I'm expecting showers and thunderstorms to become likely. According to the latest high resolution forecast models, a complex of showers and storms, some on the strong side, will develop north of central Texas and push south into our area early Sunday morning. Rain should be gone by the time we head into late Sunday morning and Sunday afternoon.

Forecast Radar at 12:00 a.m. Sunday morning: Big storms pushing into the northern Hill Country

Forecast Radar at 7:00 a.m. Sunday morning: Line of heavy showers and storms pushing through much of central Texas

This particular model is forecasting anywhere from 0.50 to as much as 3 inches of rain. The highest totals look to fall across the Hill Country; We will keep our fingers crossed.

GFS Model is showing a good 0.50 to as much as 2 inches of rain falling across the area over the weekend.

***Rain chances return to the area once again Tuesday evening, Wednesday, and Thursday of next week as another storm system and a stronger cold front approach the area***

Early Look at Halloween:

Halloween is next Thursday. Next Wednesday, according to the latest computer models looks to be rather stormy around a good chunk of the state of Texas as a cold front pushes through. Strong storms, possibly severe, are possible.

Halloween looks to start off cloudy, however, clear throughout the day, breezy, cooler and drier behind Wednesday's front. Highs look to be in the 70s with lows falling into the 50s late Halloween night. 

   

BIG Cold Front on the way!

Good Afternoon everybody and TGIF! We have some changes heading our way. Moisture is already beginning to stream back into the area at both the surface and middle layers of the atmosphere ahead of a strong cold front that is currently blasting through the Texas Panhandle. It is currently 39°F in Amarillo with a north wind howling at 30 mph putting wind chill values in the 20s! That mass of Canadian Air is heading south and will arrive in Austin around midnight, if not a little before. 

Ahead of the front the latest high resolution forecast models are forecasting scattered showers and storms to develop. I'm putting rain chances at 50% for this evening and tonight. Some of the storms that develop will be strong. Tonight's rain should not pose a flooding threat because the front will be moving so quickly.

HRRR (High Resolution Forecast Model) shows the front entering the northwestern Hill Country around 10:00 p.m. this evening with a skinny line of showers...streamer showers will develop ahead of the front across the I-35 corridor:

Behind the front temps will quickly fall from the upper 50s to middle 60s into the 40s with a strong north wind sustained between 10-20 mph with gusts in the 25-30 mph range. We will wake up to temps in the mid and upper 40s along and east of the I-35 corridor with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s across much of the Hill Country. Very dry air will move in behind the front and should allow for a clear, beautiful blue sky on Saturday, however, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 60s area wide on a north wind. Temperatures will drop back into the 40s and 50s area wide Saturday night.

Hi-Res model clearly shows the sharp temperature contrast ahead and behind the front:

Wake Up Temperatures: You'll definitely need a jacket or sweater if you are heading out early Saturday

Heavy Rain & Much Cooler Weather

What a weekend it turned out to be! A good 4-6 inches of rain fell across a majority of the Austin Area with some spots picking up double that. Portions of west and southwest Austin received upwards of 8-12 inches of rainfall. Disturbances moving out of Mexico and rich tropical moisture in place allowed for the drenching, slow-moving thunderstorms to develop.

Lake Travis rose two feet from this weekend's rainfall, however, Lake Buchanan held steady. Hopefully this next round of rain will give areas north and west of Austin some higher rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals across Travis County:

Rainfall Totals across southeastern Central Texas:

Rainfall Totals across the Hill Country: 

It has been a showery and humid Monday across mainly areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Areas west have not seen much in the way of rainfall today. We are in a bit of a lull right now waiting for our next weather system to impact the area on Tuesday. A strong October cold front looks to move through the area late Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Ahead of, and especially behind this frontal boundary, I'm expecting widespread areas of heavy tropical downpours to develop that would have the potential to drop another 1-3 inches of rainfall across the area. The difficulty in this forecast is trying to pin point where the heavy rain will set up. Latest high resolution forecast models have shifted the heaviest rains to fall just north of south central Texas, however, that does not mean we should let our guard down. A very moist, tropical atmosphere extending from the surface to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be forced to rise and precipitate as the cold front approaches the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. It is important to know that since the ground is so moist across a good portion of the area, especially right here in the Austin Metro Area, that additional rainfall will create flash flooding in a hurry. Please remember this motto, if you come across a flooded road way: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! It is not worth the risk. Not only do you put yourself in harm's way, you put those that have to come and rescue you in harm's way as well.

High Resolution NAM Model Forecast Rainfall Totals:

The low-level moisture is well in place thanks to southerly winds off of the Gulf, however, the mid and upper level moisture is thanks to Tropical Storm Octave located over the southern Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Southwesterly winds aloft are carrying that tropical moisture over Mexico and into Texas. This type of set-up typically produces some of our heaviest rainfall events here in central Texas, as evidenced by Saturday night's torrential tropical downpours.

Tropical Storm Octave Moisture Plume: 

The cold front will sweep through the area late Tuesday and early Wednesday ushering in much colder air behind it. Temps will fall from the 70s into the 50s area wide by Wednesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Wednesday will have a hard time getting out of the 50s under a cloudy, showery sky. What a change!!! Wednesday looks to start off on the stormy side, however, by afternoon it should just be cloudy, chilly and breezy with on and off showers possible. 

2 p.m. Forecast Temperatures on Wednesday: In the 50s!!!

Highs will climb back into the 60s and 70s as we head into Thursday. Thursday looks to be dry before rain chances return to the area on Friday and Saturday. Rain is beginning to look likely across the area on Friday ahead of another disturbance.  

Wet Weekend

Hello everybody! What gorgeous weather we have been enjoying the past several days. Now that southerly winds have returned to the area ahead of an approaching storm system and cold front, moisture levels are on the increase. Latest high resolution forecast model for central Texas shows dew points near 70° to start the day on Friday. Remember, the higher the dew point, the more moisture is in the air. 

Dew Point Temperatures Friday Morning:

Increasing moisture levels at both the surface and aloft combined with several disturbances that will be passing over central Texas this weekend from the southwest will make showers and thunderstorms likely. As a cold front approaches the area next Tuesday, the threat for heavy rain will increase. 

Day by Day Forecast:

Friday: Cloudy, mild, and muggy AM in the 70s will give way to a partly sunny, warm, and muggy afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s area wide. There is a 30% chance for showers during the afternoon and evening.

Saturday: 50% chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms; some of the rain may be heavy at times (especially during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating which helps to destabilize the atmosphere). Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 70s.

Sunday: 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms; some of the storms will produce heavy downpours. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 70s. 

How much rain are we talking?

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting a good 1-2 inches of rain to fall between Friday and the middle of next week across central Texas.

The latest GFS Forecast Model is suggesting just over 2 inches of rain for the Austin Area between Friday and the middle of next week.

COLD FRONT

A fairly strong cold front looks to move through the area next Tuesday. Behind the front skies will rapidly clear and drier and cooler air will invade central Texas on breezy northerly winds. Highs will be knocked down into the 70s and lower 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s for the middle/end of next week under mainly sunny/clear skies. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, heavy rain looks to be likely.

Front moving in Tuesday Afternoon:

The GFS Model has a good chunk of the state of Texas in the 40s by early Thursday morning of next week! 

COOL DOWN on the way!

Hello everybody! True fall weather is on its way! The much anticipated cold front is due to arrive in Austin early Saturday morning. Ahead of the front for Thursday and Friday expect cloudy, muggy, foggy, and drizzly mornings in the 70s which will give way to partly cloudy, steamy, and warm conditions during the afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a 20% chance for rain on both Thursday and Friday with a 30% chance for showers as the front moves through the region on Saturday.

Behind the front on Saturday, north winds will kick up and MUCH drier and cooler air will invade the area from the north. Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday behind the front with lows falling into the 50s area wide by early Sunday morning. Some lingering cloud cover looks to be possible behind the front on Saturday, however, that will help it feel even cooler. Winds may gust as high as 25-30 mph behind the front.

GFS Model Showing the Front blowing in early Saturday Morning!!

Sunday looks to be an absolutely gorgeous day with highs only managing the 70s to near 80°F in a few locations under a clear, blue sky. Humidity will nearly be non-existent as dew points will likely fall into the 30s across the region. Keep in mind our dew point today has been in the 60s and lower 70s making it feel oppressively humid out there. 

Lows Sunday night will plummet into the lower 50s here in Austin with 40s expected in rural locations. Highs will gradually warm as we head into the beginning and middle of next week as southerly winds return. Earlier model runs were indicating a second, possibly stronger front next weekend, however, it is way too soon to say for sure if that will actually happen. 

Hurricane Season is not over, and believe it or not, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an impressive area of strong convection (thunderstorm activity) across the southern Gulf of Mexico. This cluster of storms is beginning to look like it is going to form into a tropical storm and push into the northeastern Gulf by Friday...too soon to say where it is going to make landfall, however, latest model runs show anywhere from the central Louisiana coast all the way to the western Florida peninsula to be in the cone of uncertainty. The approaching front and a large trough of low pressure over the central US will keep the disturbance away from Texas and push it north and east.

Visible Satellite Image of the area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (Photo was taken earlier today):

GFS Model showing the system turning into a strong tropical storm and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle early Sunday morning:

 

Weekend Forecast & Beyond

Hello everybody! The weekend is almost here. Moisture levels are beginning to increase across the area today ahead of a weak cool front that will stall out just north of central Texas this weekend. This front will be the focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms. The best rain chances look to be north and west of Austin this weekend. I'm putting our chances for precipitation at 40% on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. Highs will still be able to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend, however, lows will be coming up considerably from where they have been in the 50s and 60s into the 70s thanks to the very humid/moist Gulf of Mexico air that will be in place. Honestly, I'm not very excited about our rain chances this weekend. By no means is this going to be a repeat of wonderful rain event we received last Friday. 

Models keep the highest rainfall totals NORTH of central Texas along the frontal boundary:

 

Rain chances will begin to dwindle on Monday and continues will begin to dry out. Looking at the long range forecast, the GFS Model has been consistent in bringing us a true cold front come next weekend. This front looks to have the potential to bring us some good rainfall as well as some significantly cooler temperatures. Highs may only make the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Nice!!! Please keep in mind that this forecast is a ways out, however, it is beginning to look like cooler air is on the way.

GFS Model showing cold front moving through Texas next Friday:

Weekend Forecast:

Friday: Partly cloudy, mild and humid start in the 70s will give way to a partly cloudy, hot and humid afternoon with highs in the lower 90s. Thanks to the increased moisture, heat index values will climb to near the century mark.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, warm, and muggy start will give way to a mostly cloudy warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Rain chances will increase throughout the day; 40% chance for showers and storms. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, warm and humid with highs in the 80s; there is a 30-40% chance for showers and storms. 

Drought Relief!!!

Finally! Some much needed rainfall. While this is not drought-ending rainfall, it is definitely drought-denting rainfall. Several locations across the Hill Country from Mason and Gillespie counties all the way east to western Travis County have picked up anywhere from 2-7 inches of rainfall. While most of that rain will soak into the ground, the run-off will find its way into the Highland Lakes. The highest rainfall total I can find so far is 6.98 inches of rainfall 8 miles northeast of the small town of Harper in Gillespie County (northwest of Fredericksburg). A solid 1-3 inches of rainfall has fallen across the Austin Metro Area with a weather station at Barton Creek and Loop 360 measuring just over 3 inches of rainfall!

Rainfall Totals from across central Texas as of 4:00 p.m. Friday: 

Where is all this wonderful rain coming from? Well, we can actually give thanks to three key ingredients. If you can believe it, rich tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean (remnants of Hurricane Manuel) that dropped copious rainfall amounts on western Mexico (including the Acapulco area) was pulled northeast towards Texas thanks to a dip in the jet stream across the central plains. That mid and upper level moisture combined with plenty of sticky Gulf of Mexico air and a late summer/early fall cold front are all working together to give us this wonderful rainfall event. Some of Austin's heaviest rainfall events have occurred due to this type of setup. The atmosphere is just so incredibly moist that it only takes a bit of lift for numerous showers and storms to develop.

Visible Satellite Image of Hurricane Manuel (earlier this week):

 
 As the cold front (currently located just northwest of central Texas) continues to push towards our area rain will continue to develop...the front should clear most, if not all of Central Texas by noon Saturday allowing for a drying trend to take hold. Northerly winds behind the front along with moist grounds will keep highs in the 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. Sunshine may return as early as Saturday afternoon for areas along and west of Interstate 35. We should see plenty of sun as we head into Saturday and much of next week as high pressure builds into the area behind the front. The lower humidity and clear skies will allow for comfortable mornings in the 60s starting as early as Sunday morning and continuing through early next week. Unfortunately, temps in the 90s will return for the start of next week, however, moisture levels are expected to be much lower than where they have been. 

Moisture levels (humidity) will begin to increase as we head into late next week and next weekend ahead of a possibly stronger cold front around October 2nd. 

Enjoy the rain and the slight cool down heading our way! Thankfully triple digits will not be back into the forecast until next year!

Light/moderate rain will continue on and off through the evening and into the overnight hours. I believe the heaviest rains are now going to be focused more so east of Austin and across southeast Texas.

Great Links: Just click on the words to go to the websites

LCRA Hydromet

Wundermap Radar

Just what the doctor ordered!

Hello everybody. It sure has been nice the past couple of days with the sporadic rain showers, clouds and in turn "cooler" temperatures! While we have been spoiled the past couple of days, Mother Nature is going to turn up the heat for Wednesday, and really crank up the heat for the end of the week and the weekend when highs are expected to climb back into the upper 90s area wide, with some spots reaching the triple digits. Now, if you have seen good rainfall amounts over the past couple of days, most likely you will not see triple digits, however, no matter how you look at it...95°F with a lot of humidity is not exactly better. 

The big and exciting news in the forecast is that long range models have been consistently forecasting a tropical disturbance (now located just east of the Yucatan Peninsula) to move into the Bay of Campeche (extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico) over the coming days. Right now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a 20% chance for tropical cyclone development, HOWEVER, they are forecasting that this system has a HIGH, 70% likelihood, or developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Will this system become a hurricane? It is too early to say right now, however, conditions are favorable for development. If this disturbance does in fact become a named system, the next name in line is Ingrid.

Current Position of the Tropical Disturbance:

Forecasted Position of the Tropical Disturbance by early next week:

High Resolution Model showing a tropical storm in south TX early next week:

Water temperatures are running a good 84-86°F across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Warm, moist air over the Gulf feeds tropical systems. Another key factor in determining if a tropical system will be able to develop is wind shear. If winds are too strong in the upper levels of the atmosphere...clouds that develop will literally be blown down by the strong winds. Thankfully, it is looking like wind shear will not be hindrance to development.

Current Surface Water Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico: GREEN represents water temperature of 84-86°F

The latest run of the GFS model wants to bring this system into south Texas by early next week. Too soon to say whether this system will develop into a hurricane, however, a strong Tropical Storm is not out of the question for early next week in deep south Texas. The model then takes that system north into central Texas where it would likely dump several inches of rain on central Texas. Some places may even possibly see as much as a foot (12 inches) of rain!! That would be incredible for our drought situation. Over the next 16 days, the GFS model is forecasting around 5 inches of rainfall for the Austin Metro Area.

Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday:

High Resolution Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday for Texas:

Of course, please keep in mind that this is a ways out and things are likely to change, however, it is a good sign to see the forecast model being so consistent. With the clouds and rain, highs would be held down in the 70s and 80s for much of next week if all works out. How great would that be? 

I will be watching this disturbance closely and will likely be posting more on this event as more information comes in and things actually start to develop. Remember, you can always follow me on my Facebook Page, Michael's Weather Center.

You can watch the development of this system and get all of the latest information posted by the National Hurricane Center, along with satellite imagery by clicking HERE.

Persistent Heat/Slight Rain Chances

Hello everybody. I hope you all are having a great start to your Labor Day Weekend. Thanks to a persistent upper level ridge of high pressure and dry air aloft, temps were once again able to climb well into the triple digits again on Saturday afternoon. We officially climbed to 104ºF at Camp Mabry on Saturday thankfully missing the record high of 107ºF set back in the very hot summer of 2000. 

With high pressure in control of our weather again on Sunday, I'm expecting another very HOT day with highs in the 101-105ºF range area wide. Some high resolution forecast models were indicating the possibility of scattered showers and storms entering portions of central Texas Sunday evening. I think that particular model is being a bit too aggressive with our rainfall chances. Most, if not all of the shower and storm activity that flares up on Sunday, should stay north of central Texas. 

Believe it or not, the upper level disturbance that gave us some rainfall earlier this week is actually going to be making a return visit to the area by Monday, therefore, I'm putting in a 20% chance for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the region on Monday. Keep in mind, storms that develop this time of year in a hot atmosphere tend to produce very gusty winds. 

Even though we do have a chance for rain, I would not get too excited about it. Those that do see rain, if they see any at at all, should consider themselves very lucky. The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) is predicting anywhere from a trace to as much as 0.25 inches of rainfall across central Texas over the next 5 days. This map is put together by taking the average of many different forecast models. 

5 Day Rainfall Forecast:

Here's a look at that upper level disturbance on water vapor imagery. The areas in orange represent very dry air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere...areas in gray represent areas with slightly higher moisture content.

Temperatures will be slow to cool off through next week with highs staying very close to the century mark. Temperatures may begin to moderate a bit as we head into the week after next, however, by moderate I mean go down into the 90s. Long range forecast models not showing any hints at fall-like weather just yet. Hang in there, fall is not too far off. I'm so looking forward to the beautiful fall weather here in central Texas. Sunny skies with highs in the 70s in the afternoon and 40s at night. 

RIM FIRE

I could not help writing a blog on this incredible fire burning just south of Lake Tahoe across the Sierra Nevada Mountains some 120 miles east of San Francisco.



Current Information on the RIM Fire:

Fire Size: 63,366 acres
Percent Contained: 1%
Nearly 2,000 fire personnel are working on this fire

The Rim Fire, as of Friday Morning, has burned more than 105,620 acres of forest. The fire has destroyed nine structures and has caused one injury. 

The fire is raging out of control dangerously close to Yosemite National Park. At this time, the U.S. Forest Service says there is currently no threat to Yosemite Valley, however, that could change in a hurry with a slight change in wind direction.

Current Drought Conditions across the western United States: Areas in ORANGE represent SEVERE drought conditons, areas in RED represent EXTREME drought conditions.

This fire is extremely hard to control due to the SEVERELY dry conditions and the rugged terrain. 

Incredible Satellite Imagery of the massive wildfire from space:

Photo taken by NASA's MODIS Satellite yesterday of the fire 

High Resolution Imagery Animation of the smoke visible from space:

Air quality, as expected, has really become bad across northwestern Nevada and northeastern California (area shaded in red represents where the air is unhealthy to breathe):

This fire has gotten so large that it is now actually making its own weather. The fire is burning so hot that it is actually forming its own dry thunderstorms. Hot air rises, that rising air carries water vapor and smoke into colder areas of the atmosphere aloft allowing for pyrocumulus (fire clouds) to develop. Those pyrocumulus clouds can actually produce their own lightning and gusty winds, however, no precipitation falls, therefore, adding even more fuel to the out of control fire. 

Good video explanation of how pyrocumulus clouds develop:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=diDkILlA4zs

Incredible Photos of the smoke from the fire:

Hopefully this fire will come to an end soon. However, as of right now it does not look good. With high pressure parked over the middle of the nation, winds will continue to stay strong out of the southwest across California (especially at the higher elevations).