The Tale of Two Fronts

TGIF Everybody! We have got a little bit of everything in this weekend's forecast. We officially set a brand new record high of 93ºF at the airport today beating the previous record of 91ºF set back in 1999. A trough of low pressure pushing east over Texas combined with a surface cold front will give us a good chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning late tonight through Saturday morning. The cold front I am watching is currently draped across the Big Country, just northwest of the San Angelo area. This front will continue to push towards the southeast tonight into early Saturday. I'm expecting a line of storms to develop along and just behind the frontal boundary as it moves through central Texas early Saturday morning. Strongest storms tonight will be capable of gusty winds to 50 mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning, heavy rain and small hail. 

Simulated High Res Radar Reflectivity: 

Cooler weather will move in behind the storms on Saturday with highs only expected to be in the 70s; northerly winds behind Saturday morning's front will quickly turn back out of the south by late Saturday night and set us up for our next chance of storms on Monday. There is a slight chance for a brief shower on Sunday, but the highest rain chances will hold off until Monday morning. Highs will be in the 80s on Sunday. Monday's storms will develop ahead of a strong upper level storm system (trough of low pressure) and its attendant strong cold front. Storms that develop early Monday morning along the front will have the potential to become severe with strong gusty winds being the main threat. Windy, drier, and much cooler behind the front on Monday with highs in the 70s! Beautiful stretch of weather expected next week behind Monday's cold front with chilly mornings in the 40s and 50s and warm afternoons in the 70s and 80s under a beautiful blue sky. 

Forecast Trough of Low Pressure over the central US on Monday:

July Cold Front

Hello everybody and thank you for checking out my blog. After two consecutive days of triple digit heat, some temporary relief is on the way. A strong July Cold Front, currently pushing into north Texas at this time will stall out over central Texas during the day on Tuesday. While the front will not provide us much in the way of a cool down, it will be the focal point for showers and storms to flare up during the afternoon and evening hours. Converging winds along the frontal boundary allow for the warm, moist air in place over central Texas to rise and in turn produce storms. Afternoon highs on Tuesday are highly dependent on just how much sun we see and where/when storms begin to erupt. There is a 50% chance for storms on Tuesday. Given atmospheric and surface conditions, storms that develop will have the potential to become quite strong with gusty winds, heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning. Highs will likely make the mid and upper 90s briefly Tuesday afternoon before storms develop and cool areas into the 70s and 80s thanks to cooling thunderstorm outflow winds. Those outflow winds in turn help other storms to develop; you can think of outflow winds/boundaries as mini cool fronts.

Latest Surface Analysis showing the frontal boundary (blue line with southward facing triangles) pushing through southern Oklahoma:

Unfortunately for us here in central Texas, none of the cool, dry air behind the front will make it here to Texas, however, areas as far south as the southeastern United States will get an early taste of Fall in July

Forecast Highs across lower 48 on Tuesday, check out all of those 70s on the map! Much of the midwest and central plains will be waking up to temperatures in the 40s and 50s Tuesday morning. Doesn't that sound refreshing!!

Temperatures will be running a good 5 to as much as 25 degrees below normal for this time of year behind this unusually strong July Cold Front:

High pressure centered off to our west over the desert southwest and a large trough (elongated) area of low pressure (responsible for the rare July Cool Blast) to our northeast will keep a northwesterly wind flow over much of Texas through the end of the week. As the frontal boundary begins to drift back north as a warm front by Wednesday and Thursday and upper level disturbances approach from the northwest, it is not out of the question for large storm clusters to develop over north and northwest Texas and track south southeast into central Texas. These storm clusters are known as Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS's). An MCS is basically a large cluster of storms that has the potential to travel for long distances and provide heavy rain and possible severe weather over large areas. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of northwest Texas, including the city of Lubbock, under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather on Wednesday [see image below]...storms that develop in that area will have the potential to merge into a complex of storms and affect us here in central Texas late Wednesday into Thursday and again on Thursday into Friday. We will have to wait and see how all of this plays out.

Given our chances for showers and storms over the coming days, highs will remain below the triple digits through the end of the work week. 

The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting anywhere from 1/2 an inch to as much as 2 inches of rain to fall across portions of central Texas over the next five days. Keep your fingers crossed as we can use every drop we can get. Heaviest rains are likely to fall well north and northeast of central Texas where this particular forecast is calling for as much of seven inches of rain to fall over southeastern Oklahoma, northeastern Texas and southern Arkansas over the next five days. 

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Severe Threat Today

Good Afternoon everybody. I hope you are all doing well. I just wanted to send out a quick weather update to inform you all on what has the potential to be a rather stormy late afternoon/evening around central Texas. Several factors are coming together to make the atmosphere prime for severe weather later this afternoon and into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large portion of Texas, including central Texas, under the SLIGHT RISK CATEOGRY for severe weather today. Much of Central Texas, including the Austin Metro Area, has been placed under an enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon. Storms that develop will have the potential to turn rapidly severe with extremely large hail, ranging from the size of dimes to as large as baseballs, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, torrential downpours, and thousands upon thousands of strikes of deadly cloud to ground lightning. The Storm Prediction has even mentioned that a tornado or two is not out of the question this afternoon. 

RISK AREA (ENHANCED RISK SHADED IN RED):

I’m putting the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening at 50%. That means that anywhere in central Texas has a 50% chance of seeing a thunderstorm today. Of course, it is hard to pinpoint exactly where these storms will develop, however, the most likely point for storm initiation will be the far western and northwestern Hill Country (these storms that develop will have the best potential for producing hail up the size of baseballs and possibly a tornado or two), however, that is not to say that large hail and an isolated tornado is out of the question for the I-35 corridor.

TODAY'S WEATHER SET-UP:

See Image Below:

A weak cold front (currently located in northwest Texas, that’s the blue line with the blue triangles). That cold front is located near an area of surface low pressure which is dragging plenty of rich, gulf moisture into central Texas as evidenced by dew points in the 70s! That is south Florida air! Just ahead of the cold front is the dry line which separates moist Gulf Air to the east of it from dry desert air to the west. As these features approach the area from the west this afternoon, combined with a quick moving disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere, severe storms are likely to develop. While there is a fairly strong cap in place, a layer of warm, dry air around 5-8,000 feet above the surface, sufficient daytime heating and lift should allow for storms to erupt given the strong cap in place. The intensity of the storms is all going to depend on how much sun we see and how hot we are able to get. Areas to our southwest along the Texas-Mexico border will be well into the 100s this afternoon with temperatures approaching 110°F in a few locations.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS:

The area of high pressure that was parked over us much of last week and the past couple of days has retreated back to our southwest into northern Mexico. The clockwise flow around high pressure develops a west and northwesterly wind above Texas around 18,000 feet into the atmosphere. Those steering winds will pull storms that develop to our north and west into our area. Think about the winds as a river of air, embedded within that river are ripples (a.k.a disturbances) that produce lift in our atmosphere.

NORTHWEST FLOW GRAPHIC:

FORECAST RADAR:

Early June Outlook

Hello everybody! Meteorological summer officially started on Sunday (June 1^st). With a ridge of high pressure firmly in control of our weather after last week’s wonderful rains things have been quite boring around here with the typical morning clouds giving way to partly sunny, warm, and humid afternoons. Honestly, that pattern looks to continue through the weekend. Slight rain chances look to enter the forecast by Sunday Night and persist through the first half of the day on Tuesday of next week. The ridge of high pressure that is currently dominating our weather will briefly break down by late this weekend and shift to our southwest. That puts a northwesterly flow across Texas in the upper levels of the atmosphere (around 18,000 feet), meaning winds will be blowing from northwest to southeast across the state.

This northwesterly flow is important because storm complexes that develop across far northwestern portions of the state are forced to move towards the southeast into both north and south central Texas. This is a very common early summer set-up. If those storm complexes that develop several hundred miles to our north are able to survive the trip south, they have the potential to bring us some good rainfall as well as a slight risk of severe weather, mainly in the form of strong damaging winds and lightning. Until then, expect more of the same with cloudy, warm and humid nights in the upper 60s and lower 70s giving way to partly cloudy, warm, and humid afternoons with highs in the upper 90s. Thanks to last week’s drenching downpours the soil is still quite moist which has helped to keep afternoon highs quite a bit lower than they could be for early June. However, as that soil moisture begins to dry up temperatures will begin to soar. These northwest flow thunderstorm events are hard to predict this far out, stay up to date with all of the latest weather developments on my Facebook Page: Michael's Weather Center and my Twitter account: WeatherMinute (Just click the names of my pages to access them).

Northwest Flow Graphic:

Last week’s rains have helped the drought across the area somewhat, especially for areas along and east of Interstate 35 where drought conditions have dropped into the abnormally dry and moderate drought categories. A large portion of the Hill Country is still stuck in Extreme Drought Conditions and areas southwest of the Hill Country towards Del Rio are stuck in the Exceptional Drought Category (the worst type of drought).

Latest Drought Monitor:

Both lakes Buchanan and Travis are 39% full and currently hold about 788,463 acre-feet of water, according to the LCRA. The surface of Lake Travis is currently sitting at 629.23 feet above sea level and the monthly average for Lake Travis this time of year is closer to 670.01 feet above sea level. Lake Travis is over 40 feet below average!! Unfortunately, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting drought conditions to persist and intensify across a good chunk of Texas and Oklahoma as well as southern Kansas between now and the end of August. The three month temperature outlook is forecasting above normal temperatures through the summer with equal to below normal chances for rain.

Drought Outlook:

3-Month Temperature Outlook:

Given a possible developing El Niño, NOAA (The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), is forecasting a near normal or below average hurricane season. They are predicting three to six hurricanes to form in the North Atlantic this season. Keep in mind, the season could be an active one even though the forecasts are forecasting differently. Accuweather is forecasting areas from the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico up through the East Coast will be most vulnerable for impacts from a tropical storm. It is going to take a persistently wet fall and winter or a major rainmaker from the Tropics to help us with our drought situation.  

April Weather & Drought Update

Hello everybody! What a beautiful past couple of days it has been, minus the gusty winds and the loads of pollen in the air. We officially topped out at 87ºF this afternoon at Camp Mabry and 86ºF at the airport. Southerly winds will ease a bit overnight, however, they will stay breezy and ensure widespread clouds late tonight into Friday morning. Those clouds will gradually break up by Friday afternoon and allow for a partly sunny, breezy, and more humid day with highs topping out in the mid 80s. Persistent southerly flow off of the Gulf will ensure a warm, breezy, and humid weekend with cloudy/drizzly mornings and partly sunny afternoons. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 60s on Saturday and Sunday.

Risk Area for Severe Weather on Sunday (RED shaded area):
CLICK HERE TO VIEW CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS, WATCHES, AND MUCH MORE!

An upper level disturbance will push the west Texas Dry Line (the boundary that separates dry desert air from humid Gulf air) into the far western Hill Country Sunday afternoon. This boundary will be the focus for a storm or two to develop late Sunday afternoon. Although the storms are likely to be isolated in nature, they have the potential to become severe in a hurry with large damaging hail and strong gusty winds. The best chance for severe weather on Sunday will be north and east of Central Texas as the heart of the disturbance will pass just north of us. Once the disturbance passes to our east, it will open the door for a strong cold front to blast through the area late Sunday into early Monday. There is another chance for storms along the front late Sunday into early Monday morning.

Sunday's Upper Level Disturbance:

Behind the front on Monday, it will be considerably cooler and drier across the area as strong northerly winds will only allow for highs in the 60s and lower 70s on Monday. Lows Monday night will drop into the 30s and 40s! Our next chance for storms will arrive Thursday of next week.

Monday's Cold Front (check out that temperature difference!):
40s & 50s behind the front, 70s ahead of the front!

With the lack of rainfall around here, the drought is continuing to worsen. Here's the latest from the U.S. Drought Monitor:

• The Hill Country has dropped back into EXTREME drought conditions, the second-to-worst drought category
• The remainder of central Texas, including the Austin Metro Area, is experiencing MODERATE drought conditions. 
• According to the LCRA, both Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis are only 37% full
• Click HERE to visit LCRA's Drought Page
• Click HERE to visit the U.S. Drought Monitor's Website
• Click HERE to view the devastating effects of the drought on Lake Travis

Lake Travis March 2014

PHOTO COURTESY OF THE LCRA

Latest Drought Monitor for the state of Texas:

64% of the state is currently in a drought and nearly 30% of the state is in the EXTREME and EXCEPTIONAL drought categories.

Lots of people have been asking me about our upcoming summer. If we do not receive a lot of good beneficial rainfall this spring, it is likely to be another scorchingly hot summer. The less moisture we have in the ground, the faster it heats up around here. El Niño is forecast to return come Fall/Winter of 2014-15, however, that is a long way's off and things may change. El Niño brings brings us (Texas) cooler & wetter than normal conditions. La Niña brings us warmer and drier than normal conditions.

The latest 3 Month Outlook from the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting WARMER than normal weather for a large section of the western and southern United States.

Winter is NOT over yet!

TGIF Everybody! I hope you are all having a wonderful day. The weather is absolutely fantastic today behind yesterday's cool front. Currently sitting in the 60s across all of central Texas under a mostly sunny sky.

Temperature Anomaly for next Wednesday. This map shows departure from normal "average" temperature for the United States. This forecast model is forecasting temps to be some 20 to 30 degrees below normal across Texas next Wednesday. Normal highs for this time of year are in the middle to upper 60s. As you can see, much of the U.S. will be shivering again by the middle to end of next week. 

Strong westerly winds aloft (around 18,000 feet above us) will ensure a warm and quiet weather pattern as well as a warming trend. After a cool night tonight with lows dipping into the upper 40s southerly winds will really help to increase both the humidity and the temperature as we get into the weekend. Highs Saturday expected to be in the upper 70s to near 80°F area wide under a partly sunny sky. Thanks to those southerly winds, widespread clouds and patchy areas of drizzle will move in late Saturday and persist through Sunday morning before clouds break up Saturday afternoon and push highs into the lower 80s across the area. A brief cool down is possible on Monday behind a weak cool front, however, highs are still likely to be in the 70s. Highs climb well into the 70s and 80s across much of central and south Texas on Tuesday ahead of an Arctic Cold Front that will blast through the area late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. We will wake up to temperatures in the mid and upper 30s next Wednesday with highs struggling to make the mid 40s on a gusty north wind. Latest forecast model guidance suggests some very light rain is possible behind the front on Wednesday as warm, moist air is forced to ride up and over the cold, dense Arctic Air at the surface. This pattern is called overrunning. It is not out of the question to see some sleet pellets mixed in with the light rain Wednesday afternoon. Keep in mind, this is a way's out and the forecast is likely to change several times in the coming days. 

Widespread freeze is beginning to look likely early Thursday morning before highs briefly rebound into the 50s Thursday afternoon. Increasing clouds and a chance for rain next Friday will likely keep highs in the 40s with lows in the 30s (we should remain above freezing during this time).

Deep blue represents areas at or below freezing next Thursday morning:

Very cold will build across northwest Canada and Alaska over the coming days and that air will push south and drop temperatures well below average across much of the lower 48. The pink and white temperature shading represents frigid Arctic Air. Extreme bright white represents temperatures about 30 degrees BELOW ZERO!

Roller Coaster Weather

Hello everybody! I hope you are all having a great weekend. I apologize as I realize it has been quite a while since I have posted, however, you can always stay up to date with the forecast on my Facebook Page, Michael's Weather Center. Just click on the name of my page and you will be able to directly access it. You don't need to have a Facebook account to view the page.

Okay, let's get right to it as there is quite a bit to talk about over the next several days. After an icy and cold day yesterday with temperatures in the 30s to 40 degrees across the area we managed to climb to 70ºF Saturday afternoon at Camp Mabry which is 8 degrees ABOVE NORMAL for this time of year. We are going to be closer to 15 degrees above normal on Sunday with warm, breezy, southwesterly winds ahead of a powerful Arctic Front that will blast through the area early Monday morning and quickly put an end to our spring-like weather on Sunday. Latest forecast models push all of central Texas into the 70s Sunday afternoon. We should top out in the middle 70s here in Austin, however, some spots may climb into the upper 70s (especially south and west of Austin) where areas along the Texas-Mexico Border will likely climb into the lower 80s! Southwesterly winds are forced to sink and compress as they drop in elevation off of the Mexican Plateau. When air is compressed it warms up. With that being mentioned, get ready for a sunny, warm, spring-like day on Sunday.

FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY (4km NAM MODEL):
Winds: SW at 10-20 mph

Old Man Winter will quickly put an end to spring by Monday morning with the arrival of a powerful Arctic Cold Front that will really kick up the winds across the area. Especially for areas along and east of the Balcones Escarpment (basically along and east of the I-35 corridor). The National Weather Service has already mentioned that they are likely to issue a WIND ADVISORY for much of the area on Monday as north winds will be sustained at 20-30 mph for a good portion of the morning and afternoon hours with gusts in the 35-40 mph range likely.

FORECAST SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS 
TUESDAY MORNING (4KM NAM MODEL)

Latest forecast models show the Arctic Front pushing through the area before daybreak Monday. Temperatures look to hold steady in the 40s for much of the day Monday before plummeting into the 30s by late afternoon and then finally into the 20s late Monday into early Tuesday morning.

FORECAST LOWS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH
4 KM NAM MODEL  

Just as temperatures drop below freezing late Monday night a cut-off low (disturbance) will be moving towards Texas out of northern Mexico.

FORECAST POSITION OF CUT-OFF LOW
LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESAY: (4KM NAM MODEL)

That disturbance will help to provide lift in the atmosphere and will cause light showers to develop across the region (especially for Austin and areas south). Gulf Moisture will be lifted up and over the cold, dense Arctic Air at the surface and create cloudy skies across the area. With temperatures below freezing at the surface, those showers will likely come down in the form of freezing rain, sleet, and possibly snow). This is not a sure thing at this point in time, however, it bears watching as the morning commute on Tuesday morning could potentially be a slippery one if the precipitation comes down as freezing rain instead of snow.

FORECAST PRECIP. TYPE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
4km NAM MODEL SHOWING SLEET & SNOW MIX FALLING ACROSS THE AREA
SALMON COLOR = SLEET
BLUE = SNOW
GREEN = RAIN/POSSIBLE FREEZING RAIN

Highs will STRUGGLE to hit 40ºF Tuesday afternoon with wind chills expected to be in the 20s for the majority of the day. Wind chills late Monday night and early Tuesday morning will easily drop into the TEENS! Hard freeze likely across the region by early Wednesday morning with all locations dropping into the low and middle 20s. Some low-lying locations may drop into the upper teens. Skies clear out for Wednesday, however, things will remain chilly with highs only expected to make the middle 40s, however, the sunshine will help to make it feel better. 

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