Severe Threat Today

Good Afternoon everybody. I hope you are all doing well. I just wanted to send out a quick weather update to inform you all on what has the potential to be a rather stormy late afternoon/evening around central Texas. Several factors are coming together to make the atmosphere prime for severe weather later this afternoon and into the evening hours. The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large portion of Texas, including central Texas, under the SLIGHT RISK CATEOGRY for severe weather today. Much of Central Texas, including the Austin Metro Area, has been placed under an enhanced risk for severe weather this afternoon. Storms that develop will have the potential to turn rapidly severe with extremely large hail, ranging from the size of dimes to as large as baseballs, damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, torrential downpours, and thousands upon thousands of strikes of deadly cloud to ground lightning. The Storm Prediction has even mentioned that a tornado or two is not out of the question this afternoon. 

RISK AREA (ENHANCED RISK SHADED IN RED):

I’m putting the chance for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening at 50%. That means that anywhere in central Texas has a 50% chance of seeing a thunderstorm today. Of course, it is hard to pinpoint exactly where these storms will develop, however, the most likely point for storm initiation will be the far western and northwestern Hill Country (these storms that develop will have the best potential for producing hail up the size of baseballs and possibly a tornado or two), however, that is not to say that large hail and an isolated tornado is out of the question for the I-35 corridor.

TODAY'S WEATHER SET-UP:

See Image Below:

A weak cold front (currently located in northwest Texas, that’s the blue line with the blue triangles). That cold front is located near an area of surface low pressure which is dragging plenty of rich, gulf moisture into central Texas as evidenced by dew points in the 70s! That is south Florida air! Just ahead of the cold front is the dry line which separates moist Gulf Air to the east of it from dry desert air to the west. As these features approach the area from the west this afternoon, combined with a quick moving disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere, severe storms are likely to develop. While there is a fairly strong cap in place, a layer of warm, dry air around 5-8,000 feet above the surface, sufficient daytime heating and lift should allow for storms to erupt given the strong cap in place. The intensity of the storms is all going to depend on how much sun we see and how hot we are able to get. Areas to our southwest along the Texas-Mexico border will be well into the 100s this afternoon with temperatures approaching 110°F in a few locations.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS:

The area of high pressure that was parked over us much of last week and the past couple of days has retreated back to our southwest into northern Mexico. The clockwise flow around high pressure develops a west and northwesterly wind above Texas around 18,000 feet into the atmosphere. Those steering winds will pull storms that develop to our north and west into our area. Think about the winds as a river of air, embedded within that river are ripples (a.k.a disturbances) that produce lift in our atmosphere.

NORTHWEST FLOW GRAPHIC:

FORECAST RADAR: