Colder Days Ahead

Forecast Discussion

This November will likely go down as the third warmest November in Austin's recorded weather history. A La Niña weather pattern currently in place is largely to blame for the warmer and drier than normal conditions this fall. La Niña occurs when cooler than normal waters are present in the Equatorial Pacific. Fluctuations in water temperature in that region of the Earth play a significant role in weather patterns across the globe. La Niña typically brings Texas warmer and drier weather during the fall/winter, but that doesn't mean we will not see any cold weather. In fact, La Niña's are known to bring severe, but short-lived cold snaps to Texas.

Drought Returning

The lack of rainfall across the state, despite the devastating rains brought to the area from Harvey, has led to drought development across a large portion of the state. Areas shaded in tan on the map below are considered to be in a "moderate" drought, areas in yellow are considered "abnormally dry," and areas in orange are considered to be in a "severe" drought.

Colder Days Ahead

Looking ahead, major forecast models are indicating a pattern shift that will unlock cold Polar and Arctic Air and send it south into the lower 48 next week. That pattern shift can be seen on the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks.

Valid December 6-10th the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting "colder than normal" conditions across the Lone Star State and much of the eastern half of the United States and "above normal precipitation" for the Northeast, East Coast, Southeast and South Central Plains. (see graphics below).

Temperature:

Precipitation:

Highs in central Texas will continue in the 70s through Monday of next week, before colder air begins to move into the area sometime Tuesday of next week. Highs a couple of days next week are likely to only be in the 40s/50s with overnight lows in the 30s. Too soon to say just how cold it's going to get, but colder weather is on the way. Along with the forecast cold temperatures, rain chances look to sneak into the forecast as well for next week. Too soon to say how much rain we are going to see, but it's nice to see rainfall chances back in the forecast.

Roller Coaster Weather

Forecast Discussion

Hello folks! After a stretch of very warm and humid weather with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s, the weather will be turning sharply colder by as early as tomorrow evening and especially on Wednesday.


Current Temperatures across the nation as of 5 p.m. CST...much colder air lurking to the north...we are the warm spot here in Central and South Texas

Near Record Highs Today

The temperature soared to 88°F this afternoon in Austin at Camp Mabry, missing the record high for this date of 89°F set back in 1963 by just one degree. Today's high of 88°F is 13 degrees above "average" for this time of year and our morning low of 72°F is 18 degrees above average for this time of year.

Tuesday Evening Cold Front

The "well-advertised" cold front that will be returning fall weather to the area is looking to arrive Tuesday evening with gradually falling temperatures behind it. Temperatures will drop from the 70s and 80s Thursday afternoon into the 40s and 50s by the time we are all waking up Wednesday morning. Highs Wednesday will actually occur at midnight as temperatures are expected to hover or slowly tick down through the day. The majority of the day will be spent in the 50s across the area, with 40s for areas north and west of the city of Austin. In addition to the chilly temperatures, scattered light rain is likely to fall on and off through the day as an overrunning pattern develops across the area (warm, humid air being forced to rise up and over the cooler air at the surface). This is a typical fall/winter weather pattern for us here in central Texas. Rainfall amounts will be very light. It will be more of a nuisance type rain. Rain, chilly temps, and a breezy north wind will make for a raw, Pacific northwest type of day across the area on Wednesday.

Forecast Model Showing Front Approaching Austin at 5 p.m. Tuesday evening
(NAM Hi-Res Forecast Model)

Forecast Temperatures for 1 p.m. Wednesday afternoon 
(NAM Hi-Res Forecast Model)

Clouds/Rain Clear Away Wednesday Night

Clouds and rain will slowly clear away Wednesday night as temperatures drop into the 40s area wide and potentially some upper 30s for areas north and west of the Austin Metro Area. No freezing temperatures and/or frozen precipitation are expected.

Brisk End to the Week

After a chilly start to the day on Thursday in the upper 30s-mid 40s afternoon highs will only manage the lower 60s under a mainly sunny sky...lows dip back into the 40s Thursday night before temperatures begin to warm a bit further towards the 70°F mark by Friday afternoon as southeasterly winds slowly return to the area.