When is it going to cool off? (Here’s a hint, not very soon)

Forecast Discussion:

Well folks, summer is quickly coming to an end, but temperatures sure aren’t getting the memo. Fall officially begins early next Wednesday morning (September 23^rd) at 3:21 a.m. CDT. Looking ahead at the Climate Prediction Center’s 10-14 day outlook, they are wanting to keep things hotter and drier than normal across a good chunk of the lower 48, including Texas through the first of October. A large blocking ridge of high pressure continues to dominate our forecast here across the Lone Star State and long range models suggest that is likely to continue through next week. According to the latest model data, moisture levels here across the area should begin to drop off this weekend and into next week thanks to some drier heat air moving into the upper levels of the atmosphere over the area. Although, it will still be hot in the afternoon, less humidity will help things feel a bit better, especially during the evening, overnight, and morning hours. Hey, it’s not much, but at least it’s a start. I’m not seeing any significant cold fronts coming into the area for at least the next seven to ten days. Along with the lack of fronts, there is going to be a big lack of rain as well. Look for highs in the mid/upper 90s through the weekend into next week with overnight lows generally ranging from the upper 60s to the lower 70s. 

Climate Prediction Center 10-14 Day Outlooks:

Maps below valid now through the first of October and are always available at this link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

Temperature Outlook:

Precipitation Outlook:

Current Drought Monitor:

All of south central Texas has fallen back into moderate to severe drought

El Niño Update:

As we head into October, the infamous El Niño, we have all been hearing so much about, will likely begin to have more of an impact here on Texas with increased chances for precipitation and hopefully some cooler than normal temperatures to go along with the chance of rain. Remember, El Niño seasons tend to bring wetter and cooler than normal conditions to Texas during the fall and winter months. 

Forecast Accumulated Precipitation now through the end of the month: Areas in white represent no rainfall accumulation. This is a look at what the GFS Model believes forecast rainfall to look like across the state. Notice the potential rains to our north and northwest.