Spring Tuesday, Winter Thursday

FORECAST DISCUSSION: 

We officially topped out at 75°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry thanks to abundant sunshine and a southwesterly wind. The airport officially topped out at 72°F. I’ve got my eyes on a cold front and a developing trough of low pressure that will be affecting south central Texas over the coming days. While the past few days have been gorgeous, the dry, mild, and breezy weather has really allowed for the cedar pollen to explode and spread. The highest cedar count of the season, so far, occurred today at the KVUE-TV Studios in north Austin. Meteorologists there recorded over 5,500 grains of cedar pollen per cubic meter. The rain Wednesday Night and Thursday should wash that pollen out of the air.

  

Day-by-Day Forecast:

Tonight: Mostly clear & cool with lows in the 40s area wide

Tuesday: Mostly sunny & warm with highs in the 70s ahead of a late afternoon/early evening cold front that will shift winds from the southwest to the north by Tuesday evening across the area. That shift in the wind will allow cooler air to filter into the area.

Forecast Highs - NAM 4K Hi-Res Model (Check out the low 80s southwest of San Antonio!)

Tuesday Night: Mainly clear & chilly with lows in the 40s; north breeze will make it feel brisk; clouds increase late

Wednesday: Mainly cloudy & much cooler with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s area wide; clouds thicken during the day in response to the approaching upper level trough/low pressure system. Warmer, moist air will be forced to ride up and over the cooler air at the surface. This is a common weather set-up across south central Texas during the winter months. Showers will increase from the west and southwest through the day with rain becoming likely by the evening hours across a majority of the area.

Wednesday Night: Showers and thundershowers likely with lows in the 40s area wide

Thursday: Cold, rainy, and breezy with highs staying steady in the 40s; pockets of moderate rain likely with some embedded lightning/thunder…many areas look to receive between 0.75 to as much as 1.25 inches of rain. Higher accumulations between 1.50 to as much as 2 inches not out of the question; especially for areas east of the I-35 corridor. The majority of the rain looks to shift east of the area by late afternoon.

Simulated Radar (NAM 12 Model) for 9 a.m. Thursday: Widespread rain from central, north, east, and southeast Texas...snow possible across the Panhandle and eastern New Mexico!

Thursday Afternoon Temperatures: 40s!!! Cold, wet, and windy

Thursday Night: Cloudy and cold with lows in the mid to upper 30s area wide; scattered light rain showers possible; All of the area looks to stay ABOVE FREEZING

Friday: Partly sunny & cool with highs in the 50s; a brief sprinkle or light rain shower possible during the morning hours

Friday Night: Clearing skies and chilly with lows in the 30s

Saturday: Mostly sunny & pleasant with highs in the low to mid 60s

Saturday Night: Mainly clear & cool with lows in the 30s & 40s

Sunday: Sunny & BEAUTIFUL with highs in the 60s

FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS:

GFS Model:

NAM Model:

ECMWF Model:

For all of you Arctic Air fans, long range models are not forecasting any Arctic Air Outbreaks over the next two weeks for Texas. Of course that can change. Arctic Fronts can move through the area as late as early March.